u/nyckidd

Ukrainian Forces Advance on Several Fronts, SBU Claims Strike on FSB Headquarters in Kherson Oblast, Killing and Injuring Dozens of Russian Troops - Ukraine Weekly Update #130
▲ 190 r/ukraine

Ukrainian Forces Advance on Several Fronts, SBU Claims Strike on FSB Headquarters in Kherson Oblast, Killing and Injuring Dozens of Russian Troops - Ukraine Weekly Update #130

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1tjmfxa/video/0bytuaaj0i2h1/player

  • I got no words for this one. They're not sending their best.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/qzab31js0i2h1.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c050dedab84848813b44691f77c059e6444ed02

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/oxm0osbt0i2h1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=c14684f99a6f526775a21e68ab2ae4036c4e4f26

  • Ukraine appears to have fully cleared Kupiansk of Russian forces. They also significantly pushed back the grey zone northwest of Borova.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/vge2hrnz0i2h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d2032e3552bd002066053b9a3824e0bdc54cc3e

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/5pvj81h01i2h1.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=666ca55a97fd5ba266500013a1ac14e2bfbb5856

  • No significant changes here.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/azouwq161i2h1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=4acdde318d77d2ab616dc6ba8ebbdd3f273bf77e

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/lii5ocv61i2h1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=06f3bf1838beb6047b6a1344d8d615bd46aebb7f

  • No significant changes here either.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/v1hf4toa1i2h1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d63f80fd06c458e2f89b34e9b50c258e4419fd0

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/j9jme0eb1i2h1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=7df64fef69c994982883d6f69135e21652dd0990

  • Very small Ukrainian advance here South of Velykomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/qxlqk7pg1i2h1.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=4faf06c95d47d56ee683402202b894fc3896a47b

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/qqpzqjdh1i2h1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d91bc10a69a09fcb7c3a771ba403e89fc0c7c17

  • Ukraine advanced in two places near Mala Tokmachka.

Events this week:

  • Zelensky claimed that the SBU Alpha special forces unit hit an FSB headquarters in Kherson Oblast, killing and wounding as many as 100 Russians, and destroying a Pantsir AD system. We don't know what system was used to prosecute this strike, but 100 casualties in one strike means it was highly effective.
  • Reuters reported that several major oil refineries in central Russia have either halted or rolled back production after being hit repeatedly by Ukrainian drones. The Kirishi refinery, which is one of the largest in Russia, has allegedly been shut down since May 5.
  • More news about the 90 billion Euro loan, the EU is now demanding Ukraine make unpopular tax reforms in order to be eligible to receive the first tranche of funding from the loan. Doesn't seem like Ukraine has much of a choice, and if these tax changes put them on more solid financial ground, then it doesn't seem like a huge sacrifice.
  • Ukrainian Commander in Chief Syrski announced in a report to NATO that since the beginning of the year, according to Ukrainian numbers, Russia has taken about 141,000 casualties, with 83,000 of those having been killed. That means Russia has lost far more men killed in less than 6 months than the US did during the entire Vietnam war. That's also a horrendous ratio of severely wounded to killed, showing how little Russia values the lives it's throwing away.
  • Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least 13 civilians and wounded almost 100 more just in the past day or two. A UN report said that more Ukrainian civilians were verified to have been killed in April 2026 than in any other month since Russia first invaded. This is likely not true since we still don't know and never will know how many civilians died at Mariupol, with some estimates ranging as high as tens of thousands, but it shows that Russia is responding to an increasingly difficult position on the battlefield by taking out their rage on Ukrainian civilians.
  • The Ukrainian MoD revealed the first domestically produced glide bomb, essentially a kit that can be attached to old, obsolete dumb bombs to give them advanced targeting capabilities. They claimed that their glide bomb has features not available on the latest US JDAM kits (not like they're getting many JDAMs these days anyway). Ukraine likely has large stockpiles of old Soviet bombs filling warehouses, so these kits give them a great way to efficiently use them.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Oryx did not update their numbers this week.

Russian losses:

  • Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,439
  • Russian tank losses: 4,390
  • Russian IFV losses: 6,429
  • Russian SPG losses: 1,014
  • Russian SAM losses: 416
  • Russian naval losses: 33
  • Russian aircraft losses: 184
  • Russian helicopter losses: 175

Ukrainian losses:

  • Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,253
  • Ukrainian tank losses: 1,422
  • Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,583
  • Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,770
  • Ukrainian SPG losses: 856
  • Ukrainian SAM losses: 178
  • Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,740 (+560 compared to last week, yet another week of very high Russian losses).

Thank you for reading!

reddit.com
u/nyckidd — 5 hours ago
▲ 198 r/ukraine

Zelensky Gives Putin a "Permit" for the Victory Day Parade, Savages Russian Logistics on the Road to Crimea - Ukraine Weekly Update #129

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1td0qnn/video/cpbz3et3341h1/player

  • This video shows a Ukrainian IMV (Infantry Mobility Vehicle, essentially an armored car) with extra bar armor getting hit by an FPV drone and continuing on unharmed. This is a great example of why these vehicles are so crucial. Even if the drone had damaged the vehicle enough to disable it, the crew has a much higher chance of survival.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/2mw7zghs341h1.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=58349f76c12ea6edfba5ffd4284d591c469ec6f7

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/9im2hhlt341h1.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2da0f571405249344bc3f63c96dde93dbb8b33b

  • No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/7i3vxyl2441h1.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a1cfe4edf413d51df12db881f8847b555e81075

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/3qsdycv3441h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=08cd2f635fecd94b936e3eeaf0ea561ce9eed35b

  • Ukrainian forces pushed the Russians back in yet another place near Lyman this past week. There are now four visible pincers going into Russian lines here. Very interested and optimistic about how this will continue to develop.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mshasvu8541h1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=65645f1676bb55f7acad2e849a1fea105f18518f

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/odn7sfaa541h1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=f65ef155eeee3d873f08bad87274f88de12dad86

  • No changes here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's remarkable how much the Russian advance has been halted here after taking Pokrovsk, and shows just how badly they were bloodied in the course of that battle.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/9o0fb4ag541h1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d554dffecbfc0bd692d38b618e01cd1b85fe88f

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/g57e4tvg541h1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd56804f752320c2fb9a64a2bbf5ba092b9f35cd

  • Ukraine liberated a few patches of south of Ternuvate, no other changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ok3pe1tk541h1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdc08a850d7b4c346065dd7ce94ecf8730f18217

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/6l40etfl541h1.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=cafb96419613196fb65da2d6ba766ecc0a171dd5

  • No significant changes here.

Events this week:

  • In a certified big dick move, Zelensky was gracious enough to grant Putin an official permit to have his tiny, sad little Victory Day parade without intrusions from Ukrainian drones and missiles. And in a speech given a few days ago, Putin referred to Zelensky as "Mr. Zelensky" (in Russian it sounds even more polite), whereas before he has never mentioned him by name. We're watching Putin be humbled in real time and it's delicious.
  • An article in the Economist from a few days ago made a claim that I have seen increasingly in Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources, which is that the battlefield initiative is increasingly shifting in Ukraine's favor, and Russia is having immense difficulties coping with this in ways that could soon spell disaster for them. Much of this revolves around something I've written about many times here, which is how dominant Ukrainian mid-range strike drones are. They are now hitting Russian logistical routes on the main road going through southern Ukraine to Crimea, as much as 100km or more distant from the frontline. Many of these drones are Hornet models made by an American company mostly funded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. They are AI enabled and can automatically find and destroy targets in the terminal phase of their attack. This is incredibly dangerous technology that will surely have horrible repercussions elsewhere in the coming years and decades, but I don't fault Ukrainians for using it to defend themselves.
  • Zelensky's former second in command, Andrei Yermak, who at one point was one of the most powerful men in the government, has been charged as part of the corruption investigation into the Ukrainian state nuclear energy company Energoatom. I've written about this corruption investigation before, and how it is very concerning and disappointing, but that it's also a great sign when independent investigative agencies have the power to charge high ranking officials with crimes, that shows a democratic process that is functioning. No government is immune to corruption, the key is how you respond to it and whether you let corrupt officials continue working.
  • Euroclear, the organization holding the frozen Russian assets, has transferred 6.6 billion Euros to Ukraine from the interest accrued from those assets. This is a nice fat chunk of change and it's great to see Ukraine benefitting from that money after all the hand wringing and debate about it in the last few years.
  • Belgium announced plans to transfer a total of 53 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine by 2029, up from 30 that had been announced previously. They'll get 7 this year, 5 in 2027, 14 in 2028, and 27 in 2029. These are significant numbers of capable aircraft that will hugely strengthen Ukraine's air force.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

  • Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,439 (-211, Oryx must have removed more duplicates)
  • Russian tank losses: 4,390 (-4)
  • Russian IFV losses: 6,429 (+1)
  • Russian SPG losses: 1,014 (+3)
  • Russian SAM losses: 416 (+2)
  • Russian naval losses: 33 (+0)
  • Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
  • Russian helicopter losses: 175 (+1)

Ukrainian losses:

  • Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,253 (+34)
  • Ukrainian tank losses: 1,422 (+2)
  • Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,583 (+4)
  • Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,770 (+12)
  • Ukrainian SPG losses: 856 (+3)
  • Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
  • Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Light losses on both sides this week which makes sense because there was a two-day ceasefire, even though the ceasefire was not fully respected by the Russians.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,180 (-590 compared to last week, considering the ceasefire, I would have expected it to go down more, but apparently Russian commanders didn't tell their own troops to stop making attacks).

Thank you for reading!

reddit.com
u/nyckidd — 7 days ago
▲ 89 r/ukraine

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1t6ci8o/video/6k9s3kxy9qzg1/player

  • This video shows a domestically produced Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile hitting a Russian industrial facility as filmed by a Russian civilian going for a walk.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/signj3ud3qzg1.png?width=939&format=png&auto=webp&s=55be8c1a4ea0723b7e496e7026daba50c2d92ee5

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/2tkk4tze3qzg1.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b39fdc9e373bda89ce86fd3beac761a9d50a59a

  • Russia expanded the grey zone in two places.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ln0euvlg9qzg1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e32f61b05ccf0620283cc4cf697b3510ca26b93

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/dqqq2txh3qzg1.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=9575e0ad50fac6847af4cdf90df1f0db1e41c9be

  • Ukrainian troops made a tiny bit more progress cutting into Russian lines north of Lyman, though they were also pushed back a bit south of Lyman.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/6a5pfoxl3qzg1.png?width=993&format=png&auto=webp&s=6951137caeda1d668138871d0ce7123a95871a37

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/henakagm3qzg1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=e57b00582d538cc230dc6262f30f9a36bb56721b

  • No significant changes.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/5fj25l6p3qzg1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb8e0bae002eabab1773d78d8ede1354fd31e39d

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/s5gpgepp3qzg1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c126282bbef4ee29847e79564beb059eafe042be

  • No changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/6lzsmevr3qzg1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5310caf31415f859d6f726f1bc6d7f8dbcedebe

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/dwucm1ws3qzg1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=606258b755347c81df50ad1ba30d50775b80f3ad

  • Ukraine liberated another significant chunk of land east of Stepnohirsk. Doesn't look like the Russians will ever get close to Zaporizhzhia.

Events this week:

  • After Putin asked for a ceasefire to protect his Victory Day parade on May 9th, Ukraine countered with a ceasefire proposal of their own that started yesterday. Russia of course completely ignored that, because they only care about themselves and their demands, and violated the ceasefire over 1,600 times according to Zelensky. They also bombed civilian targets all over Ukraine, killing and injuring dozens of people in one of the worst terror bombings they've done in a while.
  • Ukrainian drone and missile attacks hit the following targets this week: an oil transport hub 1,500km deep into Russia, the Kirishi refinery near Saint Petersburg, a Lukoil refinery in Perm, various ships and patrol boats near Crimea, and an Iskander missile launch position also in Crimea.
  • One analyst claimed recently that US oil sanction waivers could have provided Russia with up to $10 billion dollars, but that Ukrainian strikes have caused over $7 billion in damages during the same period, limiting how much Russia is able to benefit from the waiver.
  • More and more people within Russia, including longstanding Putin supporters, are voicing opposition to the war now that they have to deal with internet restrictions and constant Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. It's beyond pathetic that Russians don't care about death and destruction on a massive scale in Ukraine, and are only willing to protest the war once they actually start feeling negative effects themselves. Putin's approval rating as given by Russian state media sources has dropped greatly in the past few months, though it's still over 50%.
  • Ukraine claimed this week to have hit a Russian airbase and destroyed at least one brand new Su-57 stealth fighter. I have seen people credibly contest this claim, however, since the satellite footage they released to prove the strike was not clear, and there are good reasons to believe the wreckage is not from a Su-57.
  • The Ukrainian MoD announced significant reforms to the pay and contract structure for soldiers. They significantly increased pay for all soldiers, with a sliding scale that pays more the closer you get to the front line, and performance-based pay for combat infantry. The contract system is changing to be more predictable and fairer, with clearly defined contract durations and a phased discharge system for previously mobilized troops. These are all very smart reforms that should have positive results for soldiers in the army and encourage more people to join.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

  • Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,650 (-837, clearly Oryx did a big cleanup of their data and took out duplicates)
  • Russian tank losses: 4,394 (+5)
  • Russian IFV losses: 6,428 (+6)
  • Russian SPG losses: 1,011 (+1)
  • Russian SAM losses: 414 (+2)
  • Russian naval losses: 33 (+1)
  • Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
  • Russian helicopter losses: 174 (+2)

Ukrainian losses:

  • Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,219 (-831)
  • Ukrainian tank losses: 1,420 (+1)
  • Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,579 (+1)
  • Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,758 (+18)
  • Ukrainian SPG losses: 853 (+2)
  • Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
  • Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Interestingly, while Oryx did some kind of duplicate removal, they clearly were not removing duplicates from the categories that I track, since those all increased even as the total decreased. Remember that Oryx tracks many more loss categories than I do, so it's probably they cleaned up data on something like trucks or drones which have vast loss numbers, which is why the totals decreased so much for both sides. Aside from that, losses are very light on both sides this week, but particularly for Ukraine.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,770 (+30 compared to last week).

Thank you for reading!

reddit.com
u/nyckidd — 14 days ago
▲ 1.3k r/ukraine

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1szy6s6/video/6glazo3r7cyg1/player

  • This video shows two Russian helicopters being targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones, allegedly 150km behind the frontline. The first is an Mi-17 transport helicopter, and the second is an Mi-28 attack helicopter.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/5t9j00ja6cyg1.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=750db000c8e0546d87e367ab864fdca2e8656d50

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/zngwrimg6cyg1.png?width=939&format=png&auto=webp&s=267d8440c6fdbea682f73e45036c44e673eee186

  • No changes.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/30czs8ti6cyg1.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=945de6d8bb5e6be76d2d283504f67daa5a79b2cb

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/6djaihij6cyg1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=600548d117f19e4bec863b3b9d351738d99d5343

  • No changes here either.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/fkw70fyl6cyg1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=aba62fa2900816b76293f264032673c16e4baf94

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/suf1bnkm6cyg1.png?width=993&format=png&auto=webp&s=41903aa884b9382a0e70666e16c9557fee679752

  • No significant changes here, though the small dark blue area just north of Pokrovsk shows that Ukrainian forces are still contesting the immediate vicinity.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/czq717fs6cyg1.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=f65b729b1e0b2057c9a2c5f26d4c8b72ee925a50

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/qwq4mmzs6cyg1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=149e68caee04ca62c9a8fa753b83e8cc7ff1d268

  • No significant changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/v84ltv9x6cyg1.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=0164695ba5a2d574eaacd9117965a701b595a2cf

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/27wcz2zx6cyg1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=84485e5bf667714707cb48d73dce9a7931e0d701

  • Ukrainian forces followed up on successes in this area and liberated a nice chunk of land west of Stepnohirsk, and another chunk southwest of Mala Tokmachka.

Events this week:

  • In a classic move, Putin called up Trump, buttered him up, and said he wanted a one-day ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9th Victory Day parade. It's a craven move meant to prevent the humiliation of having the parade get attacked by Ukrainian drones. Russia has also consistently violated ceasefires in the past, so there is zero reason to trust them, but Zelensky also doesn't have a good reason to publicly oppose the ceasefire. They'll agree to it in public, and then keep defending themselves regardless of Putin's pronouncements.
  • Ukrainian engineers claimed to have made advancements in electronic warfare that allow them to disrupt satellite communications for Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. As proof, they shared a video of a Kinzhal dropping out of the sky. EW is a constantly evolving technological battlefield, and any advancement will inevitably be countered by the enemy eventually, but if these claims are accurate, they will save many lives.
  • Many more Russian oil and military industrial targets were hit this week, including more strikes on the huge Tuapse refinery, a strike on another large refinery in Yaroslavl, an explosives plant, and multiple strikes on oil pipeline control stations. I think these strikes are going very underreported in mainstream media, and it's only going to get worse for Russia going forward.
  • Ukraine's MoD claimed a strike on a command post in Donetsk that they said killed 12 Russian FSB officers.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

  • Total Russian vehicle losses: 24,487 (+16)
  • Russian tank losses: 4,389 (+4)
  • Russian IFV losses: 6,428 (+3)
  • Russian SPG losses: 1,010 (+1)
  • Russian SAM losses: 412 (+2)
  • Russian naval losses: 32 (+0)
  • Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
  • Russian helicopter losses: 172 (+0)

Ukrainian losses:

  • Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 12,050 (+73)
  • Ukrainian tank losses: 1,419 (+3)
  • Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,578 (+5)
  • Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,740 (+30)
  • Ukrainian SPG losses: 851 (+6)
  • Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
  • Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Very light Russian vehicle losses this week, and comparably heavy Ukrainian losses. This is one of the biggest disparities between Ukrainian and Russian losses I've seen. Important as always to note that IMVs, which are cheap, easy to replace, and meant to be destroyed to save the crew, are by far the highest loss category for Ukraine, and their other losses are comparable to Russia's. Ukraine gets tons of IMVs from its foreign partners (particularly Canada, shoutout to the Roshel Senator), whereas for whatever reason Russia does not use IMVs anywhere near as much.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,740 (+260 compared to last week).

Worth noting that even as Ukrainian vehicle losses have consistently outstripped Russian ones for months now, Russian casualties have been at a very high level (I consider over 7,000 to be high) for the same amount of time. Ukraine trades steel for blood, Russia trades blood for land.

Thank you for reading!

reddit.com
u/nyckidd — 21 days ago