u/nyckidd

At my supervisor's suggestion, myself and several other employees took the Associate Staff Analyst exam and passed. Now we are at the point where we're starting to be called to hiring pools, and our goal is to submit DP-72s so that we can retain our current jobs with the new title.

So far, we have hit a snag where there is apparently a promotional list out there that needs to be exhausted before we can attempt to submit the DP-72, or at least that's what my supervisor said (she is trying to figure this stuff out at the same time that we are).

Does anyone know what exactly this promotional Staff Analyst list is, or how many people are left on it? I tried looking around the website: Civil Service List (Active) | NYC Open Data, but was unable to get the information I want since I'm not even sure exactly what list I am looking for.

Any additional information would be greatly appreciated!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1vavbmi/video/5zz5b8pgjdgh1/player

• This video shows more Ukrainian drones hitting a Wildberries warehouse outside of Saint Petersburg this week. Wildberries and its customers have been devastated by these strikes, and the full effects are still rippling through the Russian economy and will only get worse.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/wh6lom0sfdgh1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e1a4590121ad135a16b1e49e23475c4aa2e0dca

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/e8y7ct9tfdgh1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=7380ebcb8b93201f57d480dd9ffe67ac8ff17611

• No significant changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/d4gwux6xfdgh1.png?width=895&format=png&auto=webp&s=617992595b3370af5120e5d7235296e1247c946f

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/8fbguf5yfdgh1.png?width=984&format=png&auto=webp&s=90f94591b14fd0246160526807271d136fbee21c

• Russia slightly expanded the grey zone east of Mykolaivka.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/8ubghe94gdgh1.png?width=1029&format=png&auto=webp&s=7152a3171429f67d559c6f393e5a72e76e9866e3

Kostiantynivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/fkecuga5gdgh1.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4b28ec102de5fff61f5008568001b228ecb8ca5

• A very difficult and intense urban battle is ongoing in Kostiantynivka with block-to-block fighting. Russia also expanded the grey zone north and west of Kostiantynivka.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/5fuv7lmhgdgh1.png?width=969&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d6f79778dd38d334f58aee73594c8d075d146b5

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/naobuzqigdgh1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=66ad7e3be106d70319d0a5b957ae80bcf2f1678b

• A Russian infiltration effort pushed into recently liberated territory south of Velykomykhailivka for the first time since Ukraine retook this area a few months ago, but it was a fairly small push.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ig5nwd1tgdgh1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=505be2e77ec0a92cfe7b075054ee3ef5ed677457

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/jgv8g74ugdgh1.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3ee4790af55a6ede6422cb46413c4b8fe361b04

• No changes here.

Events this week:

• Zelensky went to the White House and met with Trump, where any trace of animosity was gone. He was well received across the US government, especially since everyone wanted to honor the memory of staunch Ukraine supporter Lindsay Graham. Graham's sanctions bill, updated to be less severe but still a very strong set of sanctions, has now passed the Senate, but the House is in recess, so it likely won't be passed there until September. There are also questions about Democratic support of the bill since it uses tariffs to achieve some of its economic effects, which could be seen as supporting Trump's tariff agenda, but in this case, I think they do need to set aside any partisanship and just pass the bill. Either way it's very positive to see anti-Ukraine sentiment start to fade away as more and more people, including former MAGA anti-Ukraine propagandists like Laura Loomer and Tim Pool, come around to an understanding the Ukraine's victory is a victory for everyone in the world of democracy.
• A Russian cruise missile crashed inside of Poland last night, a significant escalation of Russian violations of Polish airspace. While unfortunately the response to this is likely to be as tepid as the responses to other violations have been, if one of these errant drones or missiles ends up killing someone in Poland or Romania, that could end up forcing those countries to respond more forcefully or start intercepting Russian missiles and drones within Ukraine.
• Russia continues hammering Ukraine with massive numbers of drones and missiles. Zelensky said last weekend that in the week before, Russia used 1,700 drones, 1,630 guided bombs, and more than 50 ballistic missiles. This week, more than 20 civilians have died and hundreds more have been wounded by these attacks.
• For the first time, Ukraine hit an Iranian military cargo ship in the Caspian Sea that was allegedly transporting drone components from Russia. Ukraine has good reasons to target Iran like this, since Iran provided crucial help to Russia in designing and manufacturing drones.
• The Ukrainian General Staff, under its new commander Mykhailo Drapatyi, announced a large-scale audit of combat unit staffing and manpower allocation. This is a very important development that will give the MoD much better information about which units lack manpower and which have excess, allowing them to distribute troops in a more effective way. It's common in large scale wars like this for some units to end up with manpower far below what they are supposed to have on paper, meaning commanders have an incorrect understanding of that unit's combat power. This can end up with them being used in an inefficient way and could lead to the destruction of the unit entirely if it passes a point of no return.
• Ukraine received a $3.9 billion tranche from the European Union under its loan program, which will support the financing of drone procurement, missiles, and Gripen fighter jets.
• Ukrainian drone strikes on energy facilities in Crimea over the past three days have led to widespread power outages on the peninsula, the latest move in the campaign to isolate Crimea and set the stage for its possible liberation.

Oryx Vehicle Losses:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,916 (+28)
• Russian tank losses: 4,430 (+0)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,472 (+4)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,040 (+1)
• Russian SAM losses: 428 (+1)
• Russian Radar losses: 139 (+0)
• Russian naval losses: 36 (+0)
• Russian aircraft losses: 189 (+1)
• Russian helicopter losses: 179 (+0)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,826 (+45)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,447 (-3)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,600 (+0)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 2,014 (+21)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 924 (+10)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 119 (+0)

Fairly light vehicle losses on both sides. Oryx did some data cleanup as well since the Ukrainian tank number went down.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 10,120 (+50). Yet another new record for weekly Russian casualties.

As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1uy5jr9/video/qrbmdvzxkldh1/player

• This video shows the results from the ongoing drone campaign against Russian cargo ships. Previously the strikes had occurred exclusively in the Sea of Azov, but now they've been extended into the Black Sea. Crimea is being systematically cut off from supply on both land and sea.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/sspd5hz9lldh1.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e57defd0a42d46bc3a1340e1ffac5d7ed44d87d

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/47dufi6blldh1.png?width=933&format=png&auto=webp&s=731faa4b0d8dd8fe24d459dff8a6d00cdaa997cf

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/u2rj9etdlldh1.png?width=928&format=png&auto=webp&s=79a23a4552df5e971f690864a1379ec1a37d6849

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/3qkuq1telldh1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c7403a9e380c31132cd3fde3988ceef5d33bf60

• No changes here either.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/g2z2wrhhlldh1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=b725ab87f894d2269c9f478ccbe79893bb085de0

Kostiantynivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/vm7cgcpilldh1.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=fce901c86d2acd472afbb897aade1f5cdb4f2e5f

• Ukraine liberated small chunks of territory both east and west of Kostiantynivka, and also reduced the grey zone directly north of the town.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/n0ce6ywrlldh1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb3feae71f2604e24a4ca3ba5107ed2f1905bcf0

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/hktxq10tlldh1.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=03fefc22ed3b8dae8c3f32187da9cb87a0920a81

• Ukraine liberated a small piece of territory southeast of Velykomykhailivka, and also reduced an infiltration effort directly south of Novopavlivka.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/va762sb3mldh1.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a7e579a15ec9b40865dee0dd5a774b64623f82c

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/1nq7uzk4mldh1.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1d03d07d03c8ad94ca3ae0faa8ef2873465a8c0

• No changes here.

Events this week:

• Street protests have begun in Ukraine against the firing of Defense Minister Fedorov. Fedorov was young, competent, and headstrong, and has been one of the major drivers behind the current period of relative drone superiority that Ukraine is enjoying. His firing is a confusing development. According to Ukrainian Pravda, sources in the Ukrainian Parliament said that Zelensky briefed them on the dismissal and was clearly dismayed by the entire thing. He said that there have been continuous clashes between Fedorov and Commander in Chief Syrskyi that have hindered the progress of the army. One MP quoted Zelensky as having said this: "They live in two different worlds. Mykhailo wants to digitalize everything and build the system around technology. The military simply want to be heard. They ask for one type of weapon to be procured, while he refuses and funds other areas instead. They simply stopped listening to each other. It became absurd. Syrskyi would come and say, 'Fedorov isn't providing anything for specific operations.' Then Fedorov would come and reply, 'We've provided everything, they're just using it incorrectly, in the wrong way and in the wrong places'. And it just kept going round in circles. Well, I cannot allow the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to be fighting each other while the country is at war. Ideally, both should be replaced. But I cannot do that at the same time."
• Zelensky also claimed that Fedorov had failed to effectively manage necessary mobilization reforms. I was under the impression that the reforms had been proceeding at a steady pace, but there is great urgency about this now since many are highly suspicious that Putin will announce a general mobilization in the next few months that will bring significantly more manpower to the Russian army.
• Fedorov, meanwhile, gave a public press conference this morning where he criticized the decision to fire him and directly attacked Syrskyi for failing to push forward modernization in the Ukrainian Army.
• This whole thing stems from a deeper conflict between younger, more Westernized Ukrainians who want to adopt a system more like NATO and put a very strong emphasis on drone operations, and the older, more Soviet minded Ukrainians who focus more on traditional combined arms operations. People often say that Syrskyi is a Soviet minded officer and blame him for the ways in which the Ukrainian military has failed to fully modernize. While I think he's still been a fairly effective C-In-C, I also understand why people criticize him.
• This also comes as a unit directly linked to Syrskyi, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skelia," has had its commanding officer dismissed amidst an investigation into widespread abuse and non-combat deaths in the unit. The abusive army mindset is very much a Soviet mindset, and it's incredibly important for Ukraine to leave that in the past. For decades the Soviet army and then the Russian army have been abuse and murder machines that subject their soldiers to mind bogglingly horrible things in order to desensitize them and create a state of complete submission. But this doesn't produce highly motivated and capable troops.
• Ukraine signed an important defense deal with France that includes the transfer of blueprints for the Storm Shadow cruise missile, which Ukraine has used very effectively so far. This continues a trend of Ukraine getting approval to build advanced Western weapons on its own territory. The deal also apparently includes 16 Rafale aircraft, something I hadn't seen anyone talk about before. This is a big deal since the Rafale is one of the most capable modern fighters and will be another platform for Ukraine to use the Meteor air-to-air missile one, which will completely change the calculus for Russian aircraft once it is introduced.

Oryx Vehicle Losses:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,837 (+31)
• Russian tank losses: 4,427 (+3)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,467 (+13)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,034 (+2)
• Russian SAM losses: 426 (+1)
• Russian naval losses: 35 (+0)
• Russian aircraft losses: 187 (+1)
• Russian helicopter losses: 179 (+0)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,690 (+7)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,443 (+3)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,596 (+0)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,960 (+0)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 898 (+1)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 119 (+0)

Very light vehicle losses on both sides this week. It's possible Oryx only did a partial update.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 9,800 (+880). This is the highest weekly casualty number I've seen so far and comes as total Russian casualties for the month of June were claimed to be over 28,000.

As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1urshj8/video/4jh1didpn7ch1/player

• This video shows a Ukrainian drone striking the Omsk oil refinery deep within Russia. This is the largest refinery in the whole country and is thousands of kilometers away from Ukraine over the Ural mountains. You can see clear evidence of likely two or three other direct hits, showing that multiple drones got through. This refinery has now been closed and when or if it will open again is anyone's guess.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/spzbaqy9o7ch1.png?width=841&format=png&auto=webp&s=50732a64ac55ef6860f057837f35852666c7effc

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/04fz7i3bo7ch1.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=d608d919fe26dbf83daff7069f0e917947d38075

• Russian forces expanded the grey zone in two different places here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/y04wwsefo7ch1.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=aab884c4398cd98e2ce58a6b20b8e338c87db7f7

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/4vxe5mego7ch1.png?width=928&format=png&auto=webp&s=76dc15705a9bc7e4fbeee810657260ac2fa7fda7

• No significant changes here.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/tyfiktejo7ch1.png?width=1023&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a0d78ee6766fdfa3b75094c9ca1684ef38eb545

Kostiantynivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/8tjg1ueko7ch1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=8db05259a72fddc5115e2599ed18bf9f2748b193

• Russia cemented its control of Rodynske, and expanded the grey zone in a few other places here.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/qmaic8pqo7ch1.png?width=1053&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4736db14c90816602a1b9fc6460b829d538c5b1

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/frtgcyyro7ch1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a10bbb70d864245227713ad3cf1e3d21004dde7

• No significant changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/x9v3401vo7ch1.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=fad77af9b9065e189ef11ecd2062cf595a55b224

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/p99c365wo7ch1.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=15efce9a9cd21519b0f81262cfb10057cc3ee786

• Ukraine took a very small piece of land south of Stepnohirsk, and also reduced the grey zone south of Vozdyvzhivka.

Events this week:

• Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces announced a huge strike on Russian shadow fleet cargo ships and associated logistical vehicles in the Sea of Azov today. They claimed that over the past four days at least 35 vessels were hit by drones, with 14 of those ships suffering catastrophic damage. This claim was backed up by video footage from the drones. This is a very significant attack that puts even more pressure on Russia in exactly the place where they can least afford it. The aforementioned Omsk refinery strike happening at the same time is even more challenging for them to deal with. Their fuel crisis is only going to get worse since they clearly have no way of preventing these strikes.
• Ukrainian civilians have been suffering from a shortage of advanced Patriot ballistic missile interceptors, with criminal Russian strikes continuing this week, killing and wounding dozens more civilians like they have done every single week for months now.
• Trump met with Zelensky during the NATO summit in Ankara and had a mostly productive meeting. Most significantly, he said he was open to allowing Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptors on Ukrainian territory. This is a commonsense decision, though I am highly skeptical of anything that comes out of Trump's mouth, and I'll believe this is real once they start working on the factory. Trump also said he was willing to buy Ukrainian drones.
• Also at that summit, NATO nations announced $80 billion in defense aid to Ukraine for this year, and committed to providing aid at that same level in 2027. Importantly, however, 40% of that pledge is money that was already promised to Ukraine as part of the EU aid package, so while it's still a lot more money, it's not as much new money as it seems.
• Ukraine claimed to have downed an advanced Su-35 multi-role fighter this week. We haven't seen Russian jets get shot down very often in the past few years, so every time it does happen it's worth noting.
• In another sign that Russian commanders are systematically lying about advances in Ukraine to the Russian General Staff, Putin announced the complete takeover of the town of Kostiantynivka even though no credible observers, even Russian biased ones, consider the fight for that town to be even close to being over. Leaked maps also showed that Russian commanders are lying about advances near Zaporizhzhia, thinking that they have already taken Prymorske when in fact, they've been pushed back to south of Stepnohirsk. This is part of the reason why so many Russians are dying in this sector, they are thinking they're advancing through friendly territory when in fact there are numerous Ukrainian troops waiting to ambush them.

Oryx Vehicle Losses:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,806 (+103)
• Russian tank losses: 4,424 (+17)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,454 (+10)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,032 (+9)
• Russian SAM losses: 425 (+1)
• Russian naval losses: 35 (+0)
• Russian aircraft losses: 186 (+0)
• Russian helicopter losses: 179 (+2)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,683 (+119)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,440 (+3)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,596 (+0)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,960 (+52)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 897 (+7)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 119 (+0)

High losses on both sides this week, particularly notable are Russian tank and SPG losses which are far higher than we've seen in quite some time.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 8,920 (+80)

As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1u9d7b9/video/twq7qbxqn28h1/player

• This rather surreal video shows the cap of an oil tank in Moscow getting lifted directly up into the air by the force of the explosion of the tank itself. It almost looks fake, but it isn't.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/6b5o27gxn28h1.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=53efd9a8cbf466f664ca6f66923c969c3c892946

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/e4mknyl0o28h1.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a0f5f270db0a398b647556326723afaaceba0b6

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/dfhf05cbo28h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e6a2136b74e1ac6937b1315f48193dd72abdcba

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/ybwx24mdo28h1.png?width=992&format=png&auto=webp&s=99b2a7c2480570275b9b594764f34ec02acce4bf

• Russian forces very slightly expanded the grey zone directly north of Lyman, no other changes.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/yvbtpjdmo28h1.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf7fb7b53221274114890804395fc479f72d94ab

Kostiantynivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/n55wb44oo28h1.png?width=1057&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffd9646aca7e44802515f19866787fb03bf8841c

• Russian troops advanced significantly within Kostiantynivka, where a similar battle is playing out that we've seen numerous times before in places like Pokrovsk and Bakhmut. Small Russian assault groups advance at great cost but are ultimately unable to be stopped by Ukrainian defenders due to how many of them there are.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/0hu07w60p28h1.png?width=1026&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd44c155744f5eafca7fc156898124a4dc39c33e

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/ssat3d22p28h1.png?width=1065&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b6e39707c8f41ee01fbb56586627e564431c7c

• Ukraine pushed a bit further south of Velykomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/d2u8j1j8p28h1.png?width=976&format=png&auto=webp&s=460899f383c79b5a6f6e5551a9ad589950579aa9

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/06osuqfap28h1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b2bb8e7951be72989fefbb9d8c0f9947736ac53

• No changes here.

Events this week:

• Ukraine launched possibly over 1,000 drones and an unknown number of missiles at the Moscow region over the last day, in the largest single Ukrainian drone strike of the war, and one of the largest strikes launched by either side. Black smoke covered the city this morning as oil infrastructure all over the capital was hit multiple times. This attack was claimed as revenge for a Russian missile strike on a UNESCO world heritage site church in Kyiv that is very important to Ukrainian Orthodox Christians. If these kinds of massive strikes start happening regularly, I honestly don't know what Russia will do.
• This strike also comes as some reports claim Russia is running low on their standard S-300 missiles, the mainstay of their missile defense. They had so many of these missiles that they used many of them as ballistic missiles to strike Ukrainian territory, but now they are becoming scarce, which bodes very poorly for Russia's ability to fend off Ukrainian drone waves.
• Various European countries announced new aid packages for Ukraine this week, including more F-16 fighters from Belgium and aid packages worth hundreds of millions of dollars each from Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, with a focus on paying for Patriot air defense missiles from the US under the PURL framework. The UK also announced its own aid package worth $1 billion that includes 150,000 drones and hundreds of air defense missiles.
• A Ukrainian SU-24 bomber crashed within Ukraine, killing the pilots. These are older bombers that have seen extensive use during the war, so it's not exactly surprising that it might have encountered some kind of problem, but losing the pilots is brutal since those are highly trained and skilled people.
• A Russian frigate fired warning shots at a British yacht within the English channel, a pretty extreme provocation happening on the UK's home turf. If it's a one off incident, then it won't end up being that significant, but if this becomes a consistent thing, it could lead to a major confrontation.
• Even with the EU's $100 billion loan, Ukraine still faces a significant $52 billion budget gap this year, and it's unclear who will step up and provide that money. Budgets are always a bit wonky and subject to changes, so it's not like this gap will mean Ukraine won't be able to keep fighting. If the gap is filled, however, it means Ukraine will be able to pay for everything it wants, which could mean the war would be shortened.

Oryx Vehicle Losses: No update this week

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,593
• Russian tank losses: 4,397
• Russian IFV losses: 6,437
• Russian SPG losses: 1,020
• Russian SAM losses: 422
• Russian naval losses: 35
• Russian aircraft losses: 185
• Russian helicopter losses: 177

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,425
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,426
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,586
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,845
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 870
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 9,230 (-250, another week of near record-breaking losses).

As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1u32353/video/tipd7asu0o6h1/player

• This video demonstrates the end point of European weapons donations. This is a German made Skynex gun-based air defense system that effectively and cheaply shoots down Russian drones. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have shown there will be enormous demand for systems like this until their role is supplanted by laser systems.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/zf2xv2wezn6h1.png?width=966&format=png&auto=webp&s=09889bd3b8b4a2b4e724de2ce01a25a2a60cbd51

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/zx99fiufzn6h1.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=1968fb419034172ade40f3450ffc5dad357d14fe

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/wb2maqcizn6h1.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=873878213d77053f84b0d28c7aaa12ab21407745

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/bdjxb39jzn6h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0f28cfe5dcf2b894545d5b6be4a512219e1a3b1

• Ukrainian forces have pushed back the Russian salient north of Drobysheve a bit more. Clearing this salient is very important for continuing to hold Lyman, which is itself very important for protecting Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/52o1e62tzn6h1.png?width=1067&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4f497e1dfd683bdd35a1de962a6408f0cc14362

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/db48wcxtzn6h1.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=031babfd623eaf95b38aac626f69911e0de60578

• Russian forces have expanded their infiltration efforts into Kostiantynivka.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/2wb38ioyzn6h1.png?width=1037&format=png&auto=webp&s=9de40d7570d2eeee560d4369fb3cf5a0341e43ff

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/bywuqghzzn6h1.png?width=1026&format=png&auto=webp&s=82081101d095b471801ee04f7983c84b4e3376b3

• No changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ks2r07l10o6h1.png?width=992&format=png&auto=webp&s=66b0b5b9fc994cd0aff632e67e666e73cfcbca8e

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/nszenv920o6h1.png?width=976&format=png&auto=webp&s=526d4f933038c22e36e42a5cc4ec5a169b1c0a76

• No changes here either.

Events this week:

• Russian mil-bloggers are increasingly expressing deep concern about the situation in southern Ukraine, and especially how the Ukrainian drone strike campaign on their logistics has meant that front-line troops are being starved of fuel, ammunition, and food. Several different sources tell of assault troops being given a single backpack with a day or two's worth of supplies and nothing more. They are also saying that they think a major Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin this summer with the goal of cutting off Crimea from the land bridge to Russia. I'm skeptical of this since Ukraine tried that before and failed at great cost, and while they've shown an ability to take back land recently taken by Russia, they haven't shown an ability to cut through strong Russian defensive lines. I sincerely hope any offensive is only done after conclusive shaping operations that guarantee its success.
• Ukrainian domestically produced Flamingo cruise missiles hit a Russian factory over 1000km deep within Russia that produces electronic warfare modules for Russian equipment. It appears to have been a direct hit, with heavy damage caused to the facility. The Flamingo has zero stealth features and doesn't fly particularly quickly, so it's baffling that they are able to make it all the way through Russian territory without being shot down by air defense.
• Poland is blocking the disbursement of billions of Euros worth of EU funds that Germany wants to direct to Ukraine. Poland says they need the money to reimburse themselves for the weapons they've already sent. This comes with a backdrop of worsening relations between Poland and Ukraine, even though Poland has been one of the staunchest Ukrainian allies in Europe in the past few years. Ukraine named a new special forces unit after a Ukrainian WW2 organization (the Ukrainian Insurgent Army) which committed many massacres against Poles and collaborated with the Nazis to help perpetrate the Holocaust in Ukraine. These types of organizations have a very complicated history and exist at the intersection of legitimate Ukrainian nationalist beliefs and fascist ethnic domination and antisemitism. Needless to say, I don't think they should be honored by anyone, but I understand that Ukraine is looking for any way they can drum up support and get more people into the military, and this is a way to do it. But I don't think it's worth alienating the Poles.
• Russia continued its missile and drone attacks targeting civilians all over Ukraine, killing and wounding dozens more civilians as they do every week.

Oryx Vehicle Losses:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,593 (+37)
• Russian tank losses: 4,397 (+3)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,437 (+2)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,020 (+1)
• Russian SAM losses: 422 (+1)
• Russian naval losses: 35 (+1)
• Russian aircraft losses: 185 (+0)
• Russian helicopter losses: 177 (+0)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,425 (+28)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,426 (+2)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,586 (+1)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,845 (+14)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 870 (+0)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Light vehicle losses on both sides this week.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 9,480 (+250, another new record set for highest weekly casualties I've seen, these are completely unsustainable losses).

As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1twph7v/video/uh6nqb1ux95h1/player

• Ukrainian drones hit a Russian guided missile corvette while it was in drydock at the Kronstadt HQ of the Baltic Fleet outside of Saint Petersburg, another colossal failure for the Russian Navy and Air Defense Forces. As you can see in the video, there were several confirmed hits, and this ship is definitely down for the count. This particular ship was used to escort shadow fleet tankers, but it won't be doing that anymore.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ntb6e4dev95h1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=73a5dbf37def2041ec89eed7847f8e871caf8780

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/tfix9o7fv95h1.png?width=966&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ce12b4d77ab4d5c37382ddd350dba1dddaff668

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ws9kkx8hv95h1.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=670993039c55619209289b93d4d59f5cd1b0f5d0

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/8ec0lcthv95h1.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=c75e481127bb58a2507eb5194f8f35495c1774c1

• Significant reduction of the Russian infiltration zone here northwest of Drobysheve. There was a time many months ago when I was worried Lyman would be surrounded, but there is practically no chance of that at this point barring some kind of major shift in the balance of power. More likely is that the whole salient north of Drobysheve will collapse. This also means the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are very unlikely to be attacked this year.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/bqqog840w95h1.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d60d066221275b76d8c74ee39eb34bb3593a308

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/ji3rotj8w95h1.png?width=1067&format=png&auto=webp&s=717c5d48566760c40b9fd6b910e6b187ee549197

• No significant changes here.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/hwzud6rbw95h1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebadfda202bf1d378b92f29ab01c9a8d7a88fd75

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/fw6l85ecw95h1.png?width=1037&format=png&auto=webp&s=36eaf5515d24471a3c4e4f2869200c5397420b46

• Ukrainian forces liberated a significant chunk of land south of Ivanivka this week, building off of many successes in this area in the past few months.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/scjp8xshw95h1.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=b674354b04d17e4036e3b422436476a3d2b703d6

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/tb1b71ciw95h1.png?width=992&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cb3eaf2c09c746cbcb6a4ac1083c34b10591b9e

• No changes here.

Events this week:

• Worth noting that this is yet another of a streak of weeks in the past two months where Ukraine has taken much more territory than Russia. There has been a very clear shift in initiative to the advantage of Ukraine.
• Ukraine hit an oil depot in the city of Saint Petersburg yesterday, disrupting a major yearly Russian economic conference with delegates from all around the world. These delegates were treated to a performance of Ukrainian drones who, despite many attempts by the Russians to shoot them down, penetrated over a thousand kilometers into Russian airspace and made several hits against the depot, videos of which are all over social media, with a black plume of oil smoke lingering over the city.
• Ukraine also struck the Taganrog airbase relatively close to the Ukrainian border, hitting two Tu-142 anti-submarine bombers and an Iskander missile system. The Tu-142s are not directly used in strike missions, but they do contribute to the defense against Ukrainian sea drones, so taking them out will make those missions easier.
• Russia launched one of their largest missile and drone strikes against Ukraine of the entire war yesterday, which included hundreds of drones and close to 100 missiles. At least 18 Ukrainian civilians were killed and almost 100 more were wounded. Earlier in the week they launched another wave of strikes that killed 22 and wounded 130. They are lashing out because they know they are losing.
• A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania this week. It's frankly quite embarrassing how meek the NATO response is to Russian drones violating their airspace and accidentally bombing their cities. They don't even try to shoot the drones down.
• Fuel rationing has spread throughout Russia, though it is particularly acute in occupied Crimea. There continues to be articles coming out in major publications about more and more Russians turning against the war, even at high levels of the government. But I'm not holding my breath, because I don't think they have the courage to stand up to Putin.

Oryx Updated Their Numbers Again, Finally, After Three Weeks:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,556 (+117)
• Russian tank losses: 4,394 (+4)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,435 (+6)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,019 (+5)
• Russian SAM losses: 421 (+5)
• Russian naval losses: 34 (+1)
• Russian aircraft losses: 185 (+1)
• Russian helicopter losses: 177 (+2)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,397 (+144)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,424 (+2)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,585 (+2)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,831 (+61)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 870 (+14)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Always good to see Russian losses in every category I track. Also notable is the number of SPGs that Ukraine has lost. I haven't seen anyone talking about this, but Ukraine's SPG loss numbers have been quite high for months now and are approaching parity with total Russian SPG losses. Fortunately, SPGs are relatively easy to replace, and often do not take their crews with them because they are able to get out in time.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 9,230 (+2,100(!!!) compared to last week, the highest weekly total I've seen by far, absolutely horrendous casualties).

Thank you for reading!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1tq6d9h/video/ba4htron3w3h1/player

• This has got to be one of the best cruise missile interception videos I've ever seen. The cruise missile is a Russian Kh-101, not sure exactly what missile hit it, but I saw some claims that it was an AIM-120 missile launched by a US/Norwegian-made NASAMs system, which has proven highly effective in Ukraine.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/c2a20q264w3h1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3b1ade110e2fa680affd787f5b73af15e4d511c

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/hre7hms64w3h1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dd4797cf59a0b20ed25d2ddd05aaf5707108a6d

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/debdm0094w3h1.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0a77213faa9fe5d33f8c95c1780332a3d4ecd1e

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/fngcecs94w3h1.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b4d537f76a06bf68d370bd4cfdc65069573d533

• Much more significant movement here, Ukrainian forces advanced north and south of the Drobysheve salient, putting it in danger of being cut off, and ISW also downgraded the Russian concentration east of Lyman from a confirmed advance to an infiltration area. The Russians have been taking a beating in this sector for a while and I'm very pleased to see Ukrainian forces continue their advances here.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/9fb98k7m4w3h1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b76e0224ca90121014cc7c3784b5a4b4d17b6dd

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/a8diemwm4w3h1.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=48239e37528c3d0e9d5b388b369b8346a7da7b8f

• Small advance by Ukrainian forces west of Pokrovsk.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/tw1mctlr4w3h1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=48bbf660c7966b2986b4199c269d8a5bc3a92974

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/xutlo16s4w3h1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=602c9b5186fa495387e232d99f620cdcfbce124e

• Significant changes here as well, Ivanivka was fully cleared of Russian forces, and Ukrainian troops also advanced south of Ivanivka. Additionally, the area around Vozdvyzhivka was cleared of Russian infiltrators.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/xnqomn825w3h1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a550be4f88d89879c6c66bb4bc13b27273510bc

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/v5mm80v25w3h1.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=c486898ec680b12cb41f2152e8f40ac46d941e41

• More movement here as well, with Ukraine pushing south of Stepnohirsk, and liberating more territory around Mala Tokmachka.

Events this week:

• Sweden officially announced that they would be sending 16 used Gripen C/D model multirole jet fighters to Ukraine, with deliveries beginning early next year. They also said they would help Ukraine finance the purchase of 20 brand new, more advanced E model Gripens, with deliveries starting in 2030. The Gripen is an all-around very capable aircraft with some particularly useful features for Ukraine such as the ability to land and take off from practically any runway or even a straight road. It can also use the new European designed Meteor missile, which can equal or outrange any missile in the Russian arsenal. Russia currently has a big range advantage with their R-37M missile, so anything that closes that gap allows Ukraine to contest more airspace and down more Russian jets.
• Russia did more terror bombing of Kyiv this week, hitting civilian infrastructure and killing more innocent people. They also used an Oreshnik IRBM in these strikes, though since they are firing them with dummy warheads, it's more about sending a message that they could have nuclear warheads than it is about actually dealing damage to Ukraine.
• Zelensky claimed that the amount of territory liberated by Ukraine this year has reached 590 square kilometers. This is the most territory they've liberated since the 2023 Kharkiv counter-offensive.
• The ISW put out a phenomenal analysis of how Ukraine has been achieving these successes, particularly through heavily increased intermediate ranged drone strikes, which I've discussed many times before, and also a much better capability of coordinated mechanized attacks, something they've struggled with in the past. Read more here: Ukraine’s Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign | ISW

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Oryx did not update their numbers again this week. Their inconsistency is frustrating, but I don't know about any other people doing the work at the level they are doing it, so I'm sticking with them.

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,439
• Russian tank losses: 4,390
• Russian IFV losses: 6,429
• Russian SPG losses: 1,014
• Russian SAM losses: 416
• Russian naval losses: 33
• Russian aircraft losses: 184
• Russian helicopter losses: 175

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,253
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,422
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,583
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,770
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 856
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,130 (-610 compared to last week).

Thank you for reading!

Might be Bronson's best work ever. He's been on a tear since Only for Dolphins, but I think this one is even better. Fantastic production, great mature bars from Bronson, and some really good features including Lil Yachty and Paul Wall on the same track, which is crazy. Love the frog motifs as well. Definitely worth checking this one out.

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1tjmfxa/video/0bytuaaj0i2h1/player

• I got no words for this one. They're not sending their best.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/qzab31js0i2h1.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c050dedab84848813b44691f77c059e6444ed02

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/oxm0osbt0i2h1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=c14684f99a6f526775a21e68ab2ae4036c4e4f26

• Ukraine appears to have fully cleared Kupiansk of Russian forces. They also significantly pushed back the grey zone northwest of Borova.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/vge2hrnz0i2h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d2032e3552bd002066053b9a3824e0bdc54cc3e

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/5pvj81h01i2h1.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=666ca55a97fd5ba266500013a1ac14e2bfbb5856

• No significant changes here.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/azouwq161i2h1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=4acdde318d77d2ab616dc6ba8ebbdd3f273bf77e

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/lii5ocv61i2h1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=06f3bf1838beb6047b6a1344d8d615bd46aebb7f

• No significant changes here either.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/v1hf4toa1i2h1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d63f80fd06c458e2f89b34e9b50c258e4419fd0

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/j9jme0eb1i2h1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=7df64fef69c994982883d6f69135e21652dd0990

• Very small Ukrainian advance here South of Velykomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/qxlqk7pg1i2h1.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=4faf06c95d47d56ee683402202b894fc3896a47b

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/qqpzqjdh1i2h1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d91bc10a69a09fcb7c3a771ba403e89fc0c7c17

• Ukraine advanced in two places near Mala Tokmachka.

Events this week:

• Zelensky claimed that the SBU Alpha special forces unit hit an FSB headquarters in Kherson Oblast, killing and wounding as many as 100 Russians, and destroying a Pantsir AD system. We don't know what system was used to prosecute this strike, but 100 casualties in one strike means it was highly effective.
• Reuters reported that several major oil refineries in central Russia have either halted or rolled back production after being hit repeatedly by Ukrainian drones. The Kirishi refinery, which is one of the largest in Russia, has allegedly been shut down since May 5.
• More news about the 90 billion Euro loan, the EU is now demanding Ukraine make unpopular tax reforms in order to be eligible to receive the first tranche of funding from the loan. Doesn't seem like Ukraine has much of a choice, and if these tax changes put them on more solid financial ground, then it doesn't seem like a huge sacrifice.
• Ukrainian Commander in Chief Syrski announced in a report to NATO that since the beginning of the year, according to Ukrainian numbers, Russia has taken about 141,000 casualties, with 83,000 of those having been killed. That means Russia has lost far more men killed in less than 6 months than the US did during the entire Vietnam war. That's also a horrendous ratio of severely wounded to killed, showing how little Russia values the lives it's throwing away.
• Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least 13 civilians and wounded almost 100 more just in the past day or two. A UN report said that more Ukrainian civilians were verified to have been killed in April 2026 than in any other month since Russia first invaded. This is likely not true since we still don't know and never will know how many civilians died at Mariupol, with some estimates ranging as high as tens of thousands, but it shows that Russia is responding to an increasingly difficult position on the battlefield by taking out their rage on Ukrainian civilians.
• The Ukrainian MoD revealed the first domestically produced glide bomb, essentially a kit that can be attached to old, obsolete dumb bombs to give them advanced targeting capabilities. They claimed that their glide bomb has features not available on the latest US JDAM kits (not like they're getting many JDAMs these days anyway). Ukraine likely has large stockpiles of old Soviet bombs filling warehouses, so these kits give them a great way to efficiently use them.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Oryx did not update their numbers this week.

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,439
• Russian tank losses: 4,390
• Russian IFV losses: 6,429
• Russian SPG losses: 1,014
• Russian SAM losses: 416
• Russian naval losses: 33
• Russian aircraft losses: 184
• Russian helicopter losses: 175

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,253
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,422
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,583
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,770
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 856
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,740 (+560 compared to last week, yet another week of very high Russian losses).

Thank you for reading!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1td0qnn/video/cpbz3et3341h1/player

• This video shows a Ukrainian IMV (Infantry Mobility Vehicle, essentially an armored car) with extra bar armor getting hit by an FPV drone and continuing on unharmed. This is a great example of why these vehicles are so crucial. Even if the drone had damaged the vehicle enough to disable it, the crew has a much higher chance of survival.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/2mw7zghs341h1.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=58349f76c12ea6edfba5ffd4284d591c469ec6f7

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/9im2hhlt341h1.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2da0f571405249344bc3f63c96dde93dbb8b33b

• No changes here.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/7i3vxyl2441h1.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a1cfe4edf413d51df12db881f8847b555e81075

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/3qsdycv3441h1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=08cd2f635fecd94b936e3eeaf0ea561ce9eed35b

• Ukrainian forces pushed the Russians back in yet another place near Lyman this past week. There are now four visible pincers going into Russian lines here. Very interested and optimistic about how this will continue to develop.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mshasvu8541h1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=65645f1676bb55f7acad2e849a1fea105f18518f

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/odn7sfaa541h1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=f65ef155eeee3d873f08bad87274f88de12dad86

• No changes here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's remarkable how much the Russian advance has been halted here after taking Pokrovsk, and shows just how badly they were bloodied in the course of that battle.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/9o0fb4ag541h1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d554dffecbfc0bd692d38b618e01cd1b85fe88f

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/g57e4tvg541h1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd56804f752320c2fb9a64a2bbf5ba092b9f35cd

• Ukraine liberated a few patches of south of Ternuvate, no other changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ok3pe1tk541h1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdc08a850d7b4c346065dd7ce94ecf8730f18217

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/6l40etfl541h1.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=cafb96419613196fb65da2d6ba766ecc0a171dd5

• No significant changes here.

Events this week:

• In a certified big dick move, Zelensky was gracious enough to grant Putin an official permit to have his tiny, sad little Victory Day parade without intrusions from Ukrainian drones and missiles. And in a speech given a few days ago, Putin referred to Zelensky as "Mr. Zelensky" (in Russian it sounds even more polite), whereas before he has never mentioned him by name. We're watching Putin be humbled in real time and it's delicious.
• An article in the Economist from a few days ago made a claim that I have seen increasingly in Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources, which is that the battlefield initiative is increasingly shifting in Ukraine's favor, and Russia is having immense difficulties coping with this in ways that could soon spell disaster for them. Much of this revolves around something I've written about many times here, which is how dominant Ukrainian mid-range strike drones are. They are now hitting Russian logistical routes on the main road going through southern Ukraine to Crimea, as much as 100km or more distant from the frontline. Many of these drones are Hornet models made by an American company mostly funded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. They are AI enabled and can automatically find and destroy targets in the terminal phase of their attack. This is incredibly dangerous technology that will surely have horrible repercussions elsewhere in the coming years and decades, but I don't fault Ukrainians for using it to defend themselves.
• Zelensky's former second in command, Andrei Yermak, who at one point was one of the most powerful men in the government, has been charged as part of the corruption investigation into the Ukrainian state nuclear energy company Energoatom. I've written about this corruption investigation before, and how it is very concerning and disappointing, but that it's also a great sign when independent investigative agencies have the power to charge high ranking officials with crimes, that shows a democratic process that is functioning. No government is immune to corruption, the key is how you respond to it and whether you let corrupt officials continue working.
• Euroclear, the organization holding the frozen Russian assets, has transferred 6.6 billion Euros to Ukraine from the interest accrued from those assets. This is a nice fat chunk of change and it's great to see Ukraine benefitting from that money after all the hand wringing and debate about it in the last few years.
• Belgium announced plans to transfer a total of 53 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine by 2029, up from 30 that had been announced previously. They'll get 7 this year, 5 in 2027, 14 in 2028, and 27 in 2029. These are significant numbers of capable aircraft that will hugely strengthen Ukraine's air force.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,439 (-211, Oryx must have removed more duplicates)
• Russian tank losses: 4,390 (-4)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,429 (+1)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,014 (+3)
• Russian SAM losses: 416 (+2)
• Russian naval losses: 33 (+0)
• Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
• Russian helicopter losses: 175 (+1)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,253 (+34)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,422 (+2)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,583 (+4)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,770 (+12)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 856 (+3)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Light losses on both sides this week which makes sense because there was a two-day ceasefire, even though the ceasefire was not fully respected by the Russians.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,180 (-590 compared to last week, considering the ceasefire, I would have expected it to go down more, but apparently Russian commanders didn't tell their own troops to stop making attacks).

Thank you for reading!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1t6ci8o/video/6k9s3kxy9qzg1/player

• This video shows a domestically produced Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile hitting a Russian industrial facility as filmed by a Russian civilian going for a walk.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/signj3ud3qzg1.png?width=939&format=png&auto=webp&s=55be8c1a4ea0723b7e496e7026daba50c2d92ee5

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/2tkk4tze3qzg1.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b39fdc9e373bda89ce86fd3beac761a9d50a59a

• Russia expanded the grey zone in two places.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/ln0euvlg9qzg1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e32f61b05ccf0620283cc4cf697b3510ca26b93

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/dqqq2txh3qzg1.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=9575e0ad50fac6847af4cdf90df1f0db1e41c9be

• Ukrainian troops made a tiny bit more progress cutting into Russian lines north of Lyman, though they were also pushed back a bit south of Lyman.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/6a5pfoxl3qzg1.png?width=993&format=png&auto=webp&s=6951137caeda1d668138871d0ce7123a95871a37

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/henakagm3qzg1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=e57b00582d538cc230dc6262f30f9a36bb56721b

• No significant changes.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/5fj25l6p3qzg1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb8e0bae002eabab1773d78d8ede1354fd31e39d

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/s5gpgepp3qzg1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c126282bbef4ee29847e79564beb059eafe042be

• No changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/6lzsmevr3qzg1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5310caf31415f859d6f726f1bc6d7f8dbcedebe

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/dwucm1ws3qzg1.png?width=918&format=png&auto=webp&s=606258b755347c81df50ad1ba30d50775b80f3ad

• Ukraine liberated another significant chunk of land east of Stepnohirsk. Doesn't look like the Russians will ever get close to Zaporizhzhia.

Events this week:

• After Putin asked for a ceasefire to protect his Victory Day parade on May 9th, Ukraine countered with a ceasefire proposal of their own that started yesterday. Russia of course completely ignored that, because they only care about themselves and their demands, and violated the ceasefire over 1,600 times according to Zelensky. They also bombed civilian targets all over Ukraine, killing and injuring dozens of people in one of the worst terror bombings they've done in a while.
• Ukrainian drone and missile attacks hit the following targets this week: an oil transport hub 1,500km deep into Russia, the Kirishi refinery near Saint Petersburg, a Lukoil refinery in Perm, various ships and patrol boats near Crimea, and an Iskander missile launch position also in Crimea.
• One analyst claimed recently that US oil sanction waivers could have provided Russia with up to $10 billion dollars, but that Ukrainian strikes have caused over $7 billion in damages during the same period, limiting how much Russia is able to benefit from the waiver.
• More and more people within Russia, including longstanding Putin supporters, are voicing opposition to the war now that they have to deal with internet restrictions and constant Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. It's beyond pathetic that Russians don't care about death and destruction on a massive scale in Ukraine, and are only willing to protest the war once they actually start feeling negative effects themselves. Putin's approval rating as given by Russian state media sources has dropped greatly in the past few months, though it's still over 50%.
• Ukraine claimed this week to have hit a Russian airbase and destroyed at least one brand new Su-57 stealth fighter. I have seen people credibly contest this claim, however, since the satellite footage they released to prove the strike was not clear, and there are good reasons to believe the wreckage is not from a Su-57.
• The Ukrainian MoD announced significant reforms to the pay and contract structure for soldiers. They significantly increased pay for all soldiers, with a sliding scale that pays more the closer you get to the front line, and performance-based pay for combat infantry. The contract system is changing to be more predictable and fairer, with clearly defined contract durations and a phased discharge system for previously mobilized troops. These are all very smart reforms that should have positive results for soldiers in the army and encourage more people to join.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 23,650 (-837, clearly Oryx did a big cleanup of their data and took out duplicates)
• Russian tank losses: 4,394 (+5)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,428 (+6)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,011 (+1)
• Russian SAM losses: 414 (+2)
• Russian naval losses: 33 (+1)
• Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
• Russian helicopter losses: 174 (+2)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 11,219 (-831)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,420 (+1)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,579 (+1)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,758 (+18)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 853 (+2)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Interestingly, while Oryx did some kind of duplicate removal, they clearly were not removing duplicates from the categories that I track, since those all increased even as the total decreased. Remember that Oryx tracks many more loss categories than I do, so it's probably they cleaned up data on something like trucks or drones which have vast loss numbers, which is why the totals decreased so much for both sides. Aside from that, losses are very light on both sides this week, but particularly for Ukraine.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,770 (+30 compared to last week).

Thank you for reading!

If you'd like to support this project or get these updates in your inbox, please check my profile for the link to follow my Substack. 

My updates will always be free to read, whether you read them here or there.

Video of the week:

https://reddit.com/link/1szy6s6/video/6glazo3r7cyg1/player

• This video shows two Russian helicopters being targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones, allegedly 150km behind the frontline. The first is an Mi-17 transport helicopter, and the second is an Mi-28 attack helicopter.

Maps:

Kupiansk last week:

https://preview.redd.it/5t9j00ja6cyg1.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=750db000c8e0546d87e367ab864fdca2e8656d50

Kupiansk this week:

https://preview.redd.it/zngwrimg6cyg1.png?width=939&format=png&auto=webp&s=267d8440c6fdbea682f73e45036c44e673eee186

• No changes.

Lyman last week:

https://preview.redd.it/30czs8ti6cyg1.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=945de6d8bb5e6be76d2d283504f67daa5a79b2cb

Lyman this week:

https://preview.redd.it/6djaihij6cyg1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=600548d117f19e4bec863b3b9d351738d99d5343

• No changes here either.

Kostiantynivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/fkw70fyl6cyg1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=aba62fa2900816b76293f264032673c16e4baf94

Kostiantykivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/suf1bnkm6cyg1.png?width=993&format=png&auto=webp&s=41903aa884b9382a0e70666e16c9557fee679752

• No significant changes here, though the small dark blue area just north of Pokrovsk shows that Ukrainian forces are still contesting the immediate vicinity.

Ivanivka last week:

https://preview.redd.it/czq717fs6cyg1.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=f65b729b1e0b2057c9a2c5f26d4c8b72ee925a50

Ivanivka this week:

https://preview.redd.it/qwq4mmzs6cyg1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=149e68caee04ca62c9a8fa753b83e8cc7ff1d268

• No significant changes here.

Zaporizhzhia last week:

https://preview.redd.it/v84ltv9x6cyg1.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=0164695ba5a2d574eaacd9117965a701b595a2cf

Zaporizhzhia this week:

https://preview.redd.it/27wcz2zx6cyg1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=84485e5bf667714707cb48d73dce9a7931e0d701

• Ukrainian forces followed up on successes in this area and liberated a nice chunk of land west of Stepnohirsk, and another chunk southwest of Mala Tokmachka.

Events this week:

• In a classic move, Putin called up Trump, buttered him up, and said he wanted a one-day ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9th Victory Day parade. It's a craven move meant to prevent the humiliation of having the parade get attacked by Ukrainian drones. Russia has also consistently violated ceasefires in the past, so there is zero reason to trust them, but Zelensky also doesn't have a good reason to publicly oppose the ceasefire. They'll agree to it in public, and then keep defending themselves regardless of Putin's pronouncements.
• Ukrainian engineers claimed to have made advancements in electronic warfare that allow them to disrupt satellite communications for Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. As proof, they shared a video of a Kinzhal dropping out of the sky. EW is a constantly evolving technological battlefield, and any advancement will inevitably be countered by the enemy eventually, but if these claims are accurate, they will save many lives.
• Many more Russian oil and military industrial targets were hit this week, including more strikes on the huge Tuapse refinery, a strike on another large refinery in Yaroslavl, an explosives plant, and multiple strikes on oil pipeline control stations. I think these strikes are going very underreported in mainstream media, and it's only going to get worse for Russia going forward.
• Ukraine's MoD claimed a strike on a command post in Donetsk that they said killed 12 Russian FSB officers.

Vehicle losses from Oryx:

Russian losses:

• Total Russian vehicle losses: 24,487 (+16)
• Russian tank losses: 4,389 (+4)
• Russian IFV losses: 6,428 (+3)
• Russian SPG losses: 1,010 (+1)
• Russian SAM losses: 412 (+2)
• Russian naval losses: 32 (+0)
• Russian aircraft losses: 184 (+0)
• Russian helicopter losses: 172 (+0)

Ukrainian losses:

• Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 12,050 (+73)
• Ukrainian tank losses: 1,419 (+3)
• Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,578 (+5)
• Ukrainian IMV losses: 1,740 (+30)
• Ukrainian SPG losses: 851 (+6)
• Ukrainian SAM losses: 178 (+0)
• Ukrainian aircraft losses: 116 (+0)

Very light Russian vehicle losses this week, and comparably heavy Ukrainian losses. This is one of the biggest disparities between Ukrainian and Russian losses I've seen. Important as always to note that IMVs, which are cheap, easy to replace, and meant to be destroyed to save the crew, are by far the highest loss category for Ukraine, and their other losses are comparable to Russia's. Ukraine gets tons of IMVs from its foreign partners (particularly Canada, shoutout to the Roshel Senator), whereas for whatever reason Russia does not use IMVs anywhere near as much.

Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 7,740 (+260 compared to last week).

Worth noting that even as Ukrainian vehicle losses have consistently outstripped Russian ones for months now, Russian casualties have been at a very high level (I consider over 7,000 to be high) for the same amount of time. Ukraine trades steel for blood, Russia trades blood for land.

Thank you for reading!