u/onefastpage

Hard to believe the first 48-team World Cup boils down to the two sides most people would have picked anyway. Spain haven't really been troubled since Belgium finally scored on them -- Oyarzabal's penalty and Porro's strike made France look ordinary in the semi. Argentina just keep dragging themselves off the floor: two goals in the last ten against England, Enzo from distance and then super-sub Lautaro in stoppage time. Passing machine vs the team that refuses to lose. Whoever scores first at MetLife probably decides the shape of the whole thing.

Third-place games get slandered but this one's got a real hook: Mbappé and Messi are level on eight goals, but Messi holds the tiebreaker on assists AND gets the last word in Sunday's final. So today in Miami is Mbappé's only shot to put up a number and make Messi chase it -- assuming Deschamps even starts him, since he's already said he's rotating. Add that it's Deschamps' last match after fourteen years and it's a weirdly emotional send-off for a game nobody wanted to be in. England rotating too, quietly playing for their best World Cup finish since '66.

England had it -- Gordon put them ahead in the 55th, they were 35 minutes from the final -- and then Messi just decides it isn't ending that way. Two assists in seven minutes: Enzo's rocket from outside the box in the 85th, then Lautaro heading in Messi's cross in the 92nd. That's the umpteenth time this tournament they've been dead and come back. At some point it stops being luck.

Brutal on England, though sitting on a 1-0 against this Argentina side was always playing with fire -- 12% possession after the goal tells the story. Kane admitted it himself: "we seemed to just try and hold on, which at this level is just not enough."

Second semi and honestly the harder one to call. Both these teams have made a habit of leaving it late, Bellingham needing extra time to see off Norway, Argentina needing Alvarez's 112th-minute winner to shake Switzerland. Whoever comes through Atlanta walks straight into a Spain side that's conceded once all tournament, so there's no real reward for surviving today except a final against the form team. 3pm ET can't come soon enough.

Spain just made the best France side in a generation look ordinary. Oyarzabal from the spot, then Pedro Porro finishing a give-and-go with Olmo, and France didn't manage a single shot on target until they were already 2-0 down -- 0.3 xG all night for a team with Mbappe and Dembele in it. Mbappe stays stuck on eight, his one real moment a near-post shot Unai Simon turned away. On Bastille Day, too. Spain haven't trailed for a single minute this whole tournament and now they're 90 minutes from the trophy.

Semifinal day and it's the one everyone wanted. What I keep coming back to is that France have been the most dominant team here -- 16 goals, most in the tournament -- and yet both the Paraguay and Morocco games followed the same script: an hour of nothing, then Mbappé decides it. Spain are the inverse. They'll strangle you, create a pile of chances, waste most of them, and then Merino comes off the bench in the 86th and does what he did to Belgium and Portugal. Two teams who look nothing alike and keep winning the same way. And no heat excuse this time -- the roof's on in Dallas, so we might actually get a full-tempo game. Who's stopping Mbappé -- Laporte or nobody?

Everyone's fixated on Mbappé's eight, but Michael Olise has been the quiet engine -- five assists in six games, one shy of Pelé's record six from 1970 (the most since assists were first tracked in '66). France still haven't conceded a goal in the knockouts, and they've got the tournament's most creative passer feeding the front line. Spain's press is going to have to figure out how to cut his supply, or it's a long afternoon in Texas -- on Bastille Day, no less.

Spain have not lost in 35 matches. Twenty-six wins, nine draws -- level with the longest unbeaten run in their history, the one that stretched from 2007 to 2009 and produced a Euro and a World Cup. They beat Belgium 2-1 through a Merino goal off the bench. It wasn't spectacular. It rarely is anymore.

France, meanwhile, are the highest-scoring team at this tournament. They saw off Morocco 2-0 with Mbappé curling one past Bounou -- his eighth of the World Cup, level with Messi, ahead only on the assist tiebreaker -- and Dembélé finishing the job six minutes later. Bounou had already saved an Mbappé penalty. It didn't matter. It usually doesn't.

That's the contrast, and it isn't ugly against pretty. Both of these teams are excellent. It's how they kill you. France come at you from five different directions and one of them eventually lands. Spain give you nothing for an hour until you make the mistake they've been waiting for.

The team that concedes first has to become something it isn't. If France go behind, they have the personnel to chase -- that's almost their preferred state. If Spain go behind, they have to open up, and opening up against Mbappé is how you end up losing 3-0.

So the question for Dallas: who's better at playing a game they didn't want?

'86 and the Hand of God. Beckham's red in '98. The 2002 group-stage penalty that settled nothing. And now the first competitive meeting between them in 24 years, with a final on the line.

Look how they got here. Bellingham dragged England past Norway with a double, the winner in extra time. Argentina needed 120 minutes and a man advantage to shake off Switzerland — and still only broke through with an Álvarez screamer from 25 yards.

Neither side looked comfortable. That's what makes this so hard to call.

Argentina have made a habit of nearly dying and refusing to: the Egypt comeback, 120 against Cape Verde, 120 more against the Swiss. England, for the first time in a while, have someone who just decides games.

So which is it -- does Argentina's survival instinct hold up one more time, or have they finally run out of road against a side that isn't going to panic?

Still buzzing about the Alvarez goal. Switzerland had just levelled through Ndoye and clearly fancied dragging another one to penalties, and then Alvarez does that in the 112th - that's the clip that ends up defining the whole tournament. Rough on Switzerland, who made life miserable for everyone they drew, but Argentina keep finding another gear right when the game's slipping away. Lautaro putting it to bed late almost got forgotten in the noise.

Four World Cups since 1938, two knockout games ever before this month - both losses - and they beat Brazil and took England to 120 minutes. Haaland scored seven. Nyland saved the penalty that beat Brazil, then made the mistake that beat Norway. A country of 5.6 million, first quarterfinal in its history.

Switzerland are down to ten with extra time about to start, and they've lost Embolo — the one man who gave them an out on the counter. So that's it: no attack, just thirty more minutes of the block, and pray it gets to penalties.

Which, frankly, is a plan that already worked once this tournament. They took Colombia to a shootout and won it.

Ndoye equalising in a World Cup quarterfinal and then having to spend extra time as an emergency wing-back is an incredible way to spend an evening. Anyone think Argentina actually break this down, or are we going to spot-kicks?

Rooting for the chaos option today. Norway are in their first-ever World Cup quarterfinal — best they'd ever done before this was the last 16, in 1938 and 1998 — and they're up against an England side making its third straight last eight. Haaland vs a team that's already won in Mexico City with ten men. Miami's the better story of the two QFs today, though I'll hear the case for Messi.

Anyone actually backing Norway here, or is it just neutrals like me?

The under-the-radar QF and I can't wait for it. Argentina have this refusal to die -- two down to Egypt past the 75th and still won 3-2 -- while Switzerland just strangle games and back themselves from the spot, which is exactly how they saw off Colombia. Kansas City tonight could be end-to-end chaos or a nervy 0-0 crawling to penalties, no in-between.

Norway in a World Cup quarterfinal is still wild to type out. Haaland tore Brazil apart to get them here and now it's on England to actually contain him — which they've somehow made a habit of, grinding out a win at the Azteca down to ten men against Mexico. Third straight QF for England, first ever for Norway. Feels like whoever blinks first in Miami loses this.

The stat I can't get past for Spain-Belgium: Spain still haven't conceded a single goal in five matches. Belgium are 18 unbeaten and scoring for fun, so something has to give at SoFi. I think whoever scores first basically dictates the whole thing — Spain to strangle a lead, Belgium forced to open up chasing one.

Spain-Belgium QF is a proper style clash — the only side yet to concede all tournament against a team on an 18-match unbeaten tear. Spain will want it slow and territorial; Belgium's whole identity is transition. Feels like it comes down to whether Belgium can turn one turnover into a goal before Spain suffocate the tempo.

France were just a level above tonight. Something like 3 xG to almost nothing, Mbappe missing a first-half pen and still walking off with a goal and an assist. Morocco's run deserved better than to go out 2-0 but they never really got a foothold. Third straight semifinal for France, and Mbappe's now level with Messi on eight for the tournament. Whoever survives Spain-Belgium has a monster waiting.

Rematch of the 2022 semi. Morocco just took Canada apart 3-0 and France only scraped past Paraguay 1-0. I think this one is way closer than the odds say.