Jiayin Group (JFIN) - Absurd Deep Value with Some Risks

Hi guys: prior to doing this write up -- I did want to first of all address the elephant in the room: China. The regulatory framework there makes it extremely easy to perform financial fraud and to disclose numbers which may not be accurate, but the stock price is a function of supply and demand, and right now: the demand side should far exceed the supply side due to the reasons provided below:

  • JFIN is currently trading at roughly a $200M market cap while having produced around $220M of net income in 2025. In other words, the company is trading below 1 P/E. Their revenue in 2025 was around 900 million so if their financials are even close to what they are reporting: this is an absolute gem.
  • The book value per share is 12 dollars. Right now, you are buying the stock at an approximate 65% discount to the literal cash and assets sitting on their balance sheet.
  • Company operates on a capital light model: it connects lenders with people who need money. Their cash on hand right now matches their debt, and assets to liabilities is also outstanding. Their AI-automated approval and processing systems have pushed their Return on Equity (ROE) to an exceptional 20%+.
  • Management isn't just sitting around—they are proactively returning value to shareholders. They recently executed nearly ~$30 million in share repurchases (buying back over 4 million shares). On top of that, they paid out ~$40 million in dividends in 2025. The forward dividend yield right now is sitting at an absolutely insane ~20%.
  • The number one institutional holder is Renaissance Technologies: the most successful hedge fund in the world. While overall institutional ownership remains extremely low right now, having a legendary quantitative fund taking the top institutional spot is a massive vote of confidence in the underlying fundamentals.
  • The company shares have over 60% insider ownership with no recent selling. The public float is extremely low, meaning any sudden influx of institutional demand or retail demand will have a huge impact on the share price.

Let’s assume entirely zero growth moving forward. If the market eventually grants this highly profitable financial services company a terminal P/E multiple of just 3x to 5x (which is still rock-bottom for the sector), the fair value of this stock sits comfortably between $12.00 and $20.00 per share. The probability of this stock running up significantly over the next 6 to 12 months is exceptionally high because the float is being decreased while you get paid to wait.

The other risk is financial fraud: if the numbers they're releasing are not backed by actual data or don't reflect reality, then there is no point in even doing any analysis: but in terms of expected value, even if there is only a 20% probability of their numbers being even close to what they're reporting, this is still one hell of a gem and a risk worth taking.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Do your own DD. I am long JFIN shares and will look to add more if it dips any further.

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u/photon_lines — 4 months ago
▲ 5 r/ValueInvesting+1 crossposts

Greenland Energy (GLND): A Ridiculously Asymmetric Frontier Oil Bet Disguised as a Broken SPAC

Hi guys — I figured I’d post about a very unusual setup that I think the market is currently misunderstanding: Greenland Energy Company (GLND). This is a classic scenario where a stock is heavily discounted due to short-term selling (mostly due to recent shareholder-dilution), but the underlying assets and upcoming catalysts scream that this is a deep value play:

  • GLND went public via a SPAC merger with Pelican Acquisition Corp in late March 2026. As we've seen time and time again in the market, early institutional investors and SPAC arbitrageurs immediately dumped their shares to exit. This structural selling pressure crushed the stock price, totally detaching the share price from the company's actual fundamental value. In addition to this, the company issued around 20 million shares in March, significantly diluting early shareholders. This triggered an even larger sell off (which is now I believe close to being done).
  • The company is targeting Greenland’s Jameson Land Basin, a huge onshore basin in East Greenland covering roughly 2 million acres. It has the right to earn up to a 70% working interest across the Jameson Land license position and is funding two exploration wells at the moment.
  • The basin has historical technical work from ARCO/ENI/GEUS, including seismic work, field mapping, basin modelling, surface seep analysis, and other legacy data. The modern thesis is basically that old frontier work identified a large hydrocarbon system, but the basin was never properly drilled because of old economics, logistics, oil cycles, and corporate priorities.This data was gathered over the last 30-40 years and cost 250 - 300 million dollars to obtain so it is by no means an insignificant amount. As per their CEO: it's not a matter of if they find oil there, but when.
  • The previously mentioned engineering work has estimated up to approximately 13 billion barrels of gross prospective recoverable oil. This amounts to at least $600 billion in assets (their current market cap is around ~$120 million USD). The company has already lined up major execution partners, including Halliburton, Stampede Drilling, IPT Well Solutions, and Arctic logistics providers.
  • They just announced a massive partnership with Dr. Phil McGraw's Envoy Media Co. to produce an original Arctic adventure-exploration 6 part docu-series. The series will literally follow their onshore oil exploration in East Greenland and will be distributed across Envoy TV's platforms: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txOvJY7Rqto . This fact alone should increase the amount of retail demand for the shares.
  • The recent insider buying from multiple insiders are also a great sign: the people working for this company believe that the assets they have the rights to could be extremely valuable and that today's share-price doesn't reflect the value of the company.

The world still heavily depends on oil (we've only reduced our dependence on it from 87% to 84% in the last 20 years). My plan is to buy the shares now and hold at least until end of July and possibly end of September where they plan to announce their findings. Up until that time, my belief is that the Dr. Phil documentary will attract a lot more retail attention and that a few large institutions will want to buy these shares -- especially seeing them at such a low price / market cap. The market cap should easily be above 250 million by the end of July / early September due to the anticipated announcement and media attention this will draw.

Disclosure: I own 15,000 shares at and average price of ~$3.00.

u/photon_lines — 4 months ago