u/playoffcomputer

• There remains the chance that none of the remaining three available playoff spots are claimed this week.
• Orlando has clinched home field.
• Birmingham can no longer clinch a playoff spot this week.
• Louisville can no longer be eliminated this week, and have now had control over their own destiny restored.

Updated Scenarios

Summary

Miscellaneous Notes and Ramblings:

• Of the 7 remaining teams chasing the 3 remaining spots, only Stl and DC control their own destiny.
• The "likely targets" column becomes less useful this late into the season as each game can have profound impacts. Basically, it will be what it will be.
• There doesn't appear, and actually this seems to have been the case for the past couple weeks, to be any scenario in which H2H, SOV, or SOS doesn't resolve any tiebreaker, as in points-difference will not be a factor no matter what.
• Dallas, Houston, and Columbus must win out for any chance.
• FWIW, here's what Columbus needs to make the playoffs, since there's basically only one way in for them (winner/loser): COL/LOU + DAL/LOU + STL/HOU + COL/BIR + STL/DAL + HOU/BIR.
• We will lose at least one team this week, but it IS possible that none of the remaining three spots are settled and we go into week 10 with six teams fighting for the last three spots: ORL/DC + COL/BIR + DAL/LOU + HOU/STL is one way.

Scenarios

• Orlando will go into Week 9 as the only team whose fate has been decided.
• Despite the win, thanks to Louisville also winning, Houston joins Dallas in the "Must Win Out" club for any chance.
• Columbus is now the only team with any mathematical chance of a wackadoodle scenario in which 4 wins is good enough.
• Currently only the top 3 teams control their own destiny.
• If I eyeballed it correctly, teams that should root for Columbus tomorrow: Dallas, DC, Louisville, St. Louis. Houston is the only one, other than Birmingham themselves, that appears could be helped by a Birmingham win.

• Orlando IN.
• DC & St. Louis can join them with wins... Any win rest of the season will do it.
• We now cannot lose both Houston and Columbus this week. Houston is eliminated with a loss and a Louisville win over DC, while Columbus will be out with a loss and a DC win over Louisville. So at least one of them will still be mathematically alive going into Week 9, if not both.
• Dallas becomes the first team in the "Must Win Out" club. There are no scenarios in which they make the playoffs without winning both of their final two games.
• Birmingham, Louisville, Houston, and Columbus still have some wackadoodle scenarios of making it in with 4 wins.

Summary

Miscellaneous Notes and Ramblings:

• St. Louis, Orlando, and DC can clinch a playoff spot this week with a win.
• Interesting oddity #1: St. Louis and DC are in with any win for the rest of the season to get to 6 wins. While Orlando clinches a spot with a win this week, if they don't there is at least one scenario in which they could get to 6 wins and not be in.
• Crazy interesting oddity #2: The UFL, and specifically the three 3-4 teams, have managed to pull off a rare feat. Only the top three teams currently control their own destiny, even though there are four playoff spots. Completely counter-intuitive, right? Shouldn't the team currently holding the fourth seed (Birmingham) also control their own destiny and be in if they were to win out? After all, they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Dallas and Louisville (who play each other next week, so only one of them can get to 6 wins). Soooo, yes, if Birmingham ties with Dallas or Louisville for the fourth spot at 6-4, they would be in. But, there is at least one wacky scenario in which one of the 5-2 teams gets added to the mix that could cause Birmingham to miss out. Here's one, there may be more: Say St. Louis and Orlando take the first two spots by record, Birmingham wins out, Louisville wins out, and DC ends up 6-4 as well (splitting with Orlando). In that case, LOUISVILLE takes the third spot as they would win the combined head-to-head tiebreaker against the other two (and not have to worry about losing the h2h tiebreaker against just Birmingham), and then DC would get the fourth spot as they beat Birmingham.
• There remain scenarios where four wins could be good enough for the bottom teams, except for Dallas, they need to get to 5.
• We could say goodbye to Columbus and Houston from the playoff race if they lose and a couple other things go against them.

Scenarios

• Week 7 will conclude without any team having clinched a spot or been eliminated.
• Dallas has lost control over their own destiny. Neither Louisville or Birmingham regained COD, so at the moment, DC, St. Louis, Orlando, and Houston are the only teams in which if they win out they are in no matter what else happens.
• As it stands prior to Sunday's game, DC, St. Louis, and Orlando are the only teams that have a chance to clinch a spot in Week 8 (Orlando will lose that opportunity with a loss).
• And as it stands right now, Columbus and Houston are the only teams that could be eliminated in Week 8 (Houston will avoid any chance of that fate with a win).
• There remain possibilities for 4 wins to be good enough.
• FWIW at the moment Birmingham now has the highest mathematical chance of the 3-win teams: Bir 35%, Dal 33%, Lou 31%.
• So will Houston join the melee or will Orlando stay comfortably ahead of the peloton?

• Houston has reclaimed control over their own destiny. If they win out they are in no matter what else happens.
• St. Louis can clinch a spot next week.
• Surprisingly, Columbus is not technically in absolute must-win territory yet. There still is at least one scenario in which they could get in at 4-6. However, their mathematical odds are down to 4%.
• This took away one of the scenarios for DC to clinch a spot this week. They now need a win AND either a Houston or Dallas loss.

Summary

Miscellaneous Notes and Ramblings:

• DC can clinch a spot this week (see below).
• With the win Birmingham avoided any chance of elimination in Week 7.
• The top 4 all control their own destiny as 7 wins is in no matter what else happens.
• Conversely, the bottom 4 currently do not control their own destiny.
• There remain theoretical possibilities that 4 wins is enough.
• 6 ish remains the likely target, with 5 still having decent chances.
• Currently, there are scenarios for St. Louis, Orlando, and Dallas to clinch spots by Week 8 and for each of the bottom 4 to be eliminated by Week 8.

https://preview.redd.it/vs9x14k9b1zg1.png?width=1144&format=png&auto=webp&s=446b051a2f5ed5ef6436936d8003ebb9cb3cc782

• St. Louis joins DC and Orlando with four wins and, as that is the current absolute minimum needed, having theoretical possibilities at the moment of making the playoffs without winning another game.
• On the flip side, Louisville joins Columbus and Birmingham as having, at least temporarily, lost control over their own destiny.
• The loss also removed any possibility of Louisville being able to clinch a playoff spot by Week 8.
• The result also removed any possibility of Dallas being eliminated by Week 8.
• Otherwise, the result didn't have any huge impacts on the playoff chances of the non-participants.
• Scenarios remain for DC and Orlando to clinch a spot next week and for Columbus and Birmingham to be eliminated next week, pending results of the rest of this week's games.
• Next on tap is whether Houston can stay in the thick of things for that fourth spot or will Columbus enter the chat.

Summary

Miscellaneous Notes and Ramblings:

• Symmetry has once again been achieved in the standings, and with the Week 6 schedule, it is possible (perhaps not likely) that we have four 4-2 teams and four 2-4 teams after this week.
• The marquee matchup, at least as far as playoff race drama goes, will be St. Louis vs Louisville.
• Any mathematical possibilities of a 3 win team sneaking in have evaporated. Four wins is the bare minimum needed, with 5-6 being the likely targets.
• The same for any mathematical possibilities of a 7 win team missing out. Now, get to 7 wins, automatically in no matter what else happens.
• As such, Columbus and Birmingham are the only two teams that do not control their own destiny.
• Houston, with their wins being against the two 1-4 teams, and head-to-head losses against many in the playoff race field, has some depressed odds as compared to fellow 2-3 team Louisville.
• The earliest possibilities for a team clinching or being eliminated is Week 7, but only for four teams. Currently, DC and Orlando could clinch a spot that soon, and Columbus and Birmingham could be eliminated that soon.
• Interestingly (well, I found it interesting at least), Dallas and Louisville currently have scenarios in which they could clinch a spot by Week 8 and also have scenarios in which they could be eliminated by Week 8.

Southern, Kowloon City, and the Rangers are now eliminated from the Champions Phase.

Eastern SC has the 3 point lead on Eastern District, but District would win the tiebreaker were they to end up tied. So Eastern SC either needs a tie or win next week or have District tie or lose.

Summary

The last spot in the Champions phase is Eastern SC's to lose.

Two games next weekend: Lee Man vs Eastern SA and Rangers vs Eastern SC.

Eastern SC will clinch the spot with:

• A win over the Rangers AND Lee Man beating Eastern SA, OR;
• A tie with the Rangers AND Lee Man beating Eastern SA, OR;
• A win over the Rangers AND Lee Man tying Eastern SA

Obviously if Eastern SC clinches the last spot than all others are eliminated. But the rest all have varying ways to be eliminated over these next two games.

Southern AND Kowloon City are eliminated with:

• Eastern SA beating Lee Man, OR;
• Eastern SC beating the Rangers, OR;
• Eastern SC tying the Rangers

Eastern SA is eliminated only with the Eastern SC clinching scenarios listed above.

The Rangers are eliminated with:

• A loss to Eastern SC, OR;
• A tie with Eastern SC

Note: These scenarios include a "reasonable" buffer in the goals-difference tiebreaker.