u/quarkpod

Thanks to the 32 people that voted. Durkin is Player of the Match at 41%. Goal of the Match goes to Navarro via Wallem at 69%, and even more convincingly, Wallem to Navarro is Assist of the Match at 82%. Bonus of the match is choosing who made your favorite defensive contribution.

Options included all players that played like Player of the Match, along with multiple options allowed. Durkin wins this overwhelmingly at 72%, with Bürki and Fallou at 13%, and Baumgartl, Navarro, and Totland rounding the rest at 3% of votes.

Durkin had plenty of contributions to choose from including the Bürki-backup goal line stop and tackle/interception to assist Becher. By the numbers Durkin had the most defensive contributions at 12, with Polvara, Baumgartl, Fallou, and Totland at 9, 8, 8, and 6, respectively (FotMob). These include tackles, interceptions, blocks, and clearances. Compared to PotM, about half selecting someone other than Durkin for their favorite defensive contribution.

Curious what other defensive actions stood out.

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 56 people that voted. Navarro is Player of the Match at 68%. Goal of the Match goes to Holse via Wallem at 74%. Holse to Navarro is Assist of the Match at 73%. Bonus of the match is rating dual strikers with Navarro and Becher along with Navarro and Downs.

Navarro and Becher ratings are shown in the top box plot with an average of 7.4. Below that shows Navarro and Downs with an average of 6.7.

Downs finally had more than a few minutes alongside Navarro, subbing in at the 76', and supporting the close out of the match. By the numbers, Downs had slightly more attacking touches and passes into the final third compared with Becher (per 90); while Becher at least had a shot on target as well as directly influencing the Navarro's PK. Either way, it's an interesting and positive performance from the strikers. Certainly it helps to have Navarro's quality and Holse and Măţan providing.

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 62 people that voted. Totland is Player of the Match at 69%. Goal of the Match goes to Becher via Mățan at 46%. Assist of the Match is for the same goal, Mățan to Becher at 50%. Bonus asked for your starters for the match.  

Available players include those starting and on the bench for this match, and voters were asked to pick their 11 for the match with the assumption that all available players had enough integration time. I arranged players according to the 3-4-3 formation Damet deployed. Changes from the actual starting 11 are indicated by yellow/blue. Three players had 100% of votes, Bürki, Baumgartl, and Totland. Along the backline, Polvara (98%) and MacNaughton (74%) flank Baumgartl. Middle four alongside Totland is Edelman (94%), Wallem (91%), and Durkin (78%). Front 3 has Mățan (96%), Holse (85%), and Navarro (80%). For the bench with non-zero votes to start, we have Becher (44%), Downs (17%), Jeong (15%), and Fallou (11%). Joyner, Perez, Santos, Mbacke, and Lundt are well agreed to start on the bench at 0%.

The only adjustment is Becher -> Navarro. Durkin and MacNaughton appear less assured starters amongst you all (Yes, I goofed by having Orozco in for MacNaughton from selections; I took some liberty adding Orozco votes to MacNaughton's. The percentage may change, but the outcome would not.). Trying to figure swaps for Durkin along with no votes to other typical midfielders, I looked at combinations for dual strikers. 25% had Becher and Navarro, and another 14% had Downs and Navarro. No one opted to put Becher and Downs together. Also, nearly 75% that chose Holse included Mățan which could be the most plausible Durkin alternatives. Combining these dual strikers with Holse+Mățan combinations, 17% voted for Becher, Navarro, Holse, and Mățan with another 8% swapping in Downs.

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 37 people that voted. Hartel is Player of the Match at 89% while also having the lone goal. Bonus is on how you predict Mățan will rate through the end of the season.

This rating was treated like a typical player rating, ranging 1-10. Responses ranged 6 to 9. The middle 50% was fully on 7. Responses averaged 7.2.

Digging through FotMob: his current run of form over the past 9 games (matching CITY unbeaten run count) is a 6.9 simple average. Across all first team competitions ince 2023, he's averaged a 7.0. Also, while previously in MLS with Columbus Crew, he had 40 appearances with a 7.0 rating while contributing in the Wilfried Nancy era to MLS cup (2023) and Leagues Cup (2024).

For reference on FotMob average first team ratings for our other attacking mid players, over the same time 2023-now, Hartel 7.7; Löwen 7.4; Holse 7.2; Pompeu 6.9; Ostrák 6.8; Becher 6.7; Jeong 6.6. It seems Mățan may sit middle of the pack of our attackers.

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 48 people that voted. Hartel is Player of the Match at 90%. MacNaughton's header from Hartel's corner is Goal of the Match at 48%, Hartel's goal assisted by Totland has 35%, and Becher's goal assisted by Hartel has 17%. Bonus is on whether you think we should have dumped the ball out of play when Reus after being stepped on.

I'm glad to find we can all agree on at least one thing. Everyone voted "No", 100%. Admittedly this was a rather lazy bonus question, but there are some sportsmanship and confused reffering interpretation arguments that frequently come up with this type of situation. Durkin, I think, went up for a 50-50 header against Reus, and on the way down had an accidental step on Reus' achilles/heel. That is why Reus went down for the remainder of the build-up leading to Hartel's goal (and likely contributed to subbing out later). This is also why Garcés, LAG's defender that was eventually red carded, was so upset (yellow carded post-goal). There is no rule/law stating teams should stop play, since it was not a head injury. Some might argue that it's the sportsmanship thing to do. To that argument, I'd note that MacNaughton spent some time checking on Reus, so that was a good human interaction/sportsmanship. Also, Reus is an attacker and would have impacted nothing to the resultant build-up. Makes me wonder whether Garcés and others defending wavered in their defensive roles that made it easier for our build-up. Play until the whistle, right?

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 37 people that voted. Hartel is Player of the Match at 46%. Hartel assisted by Becher is Goal of the Match at 54% with Jeong's goal at 41% and Löwen's penalty is at 5%. Bonus is on which team you'd like to see win the World Cup and 3rd place.

For 3rd place, France (the one remaining team representing players+manager of CITY) and England faced off with 53% favoring France over England (47%). For the World Cup, Argentina faced Spain with much more imbalance. 83% favored Spain while just 17% favored Argentina. For the paired options, 36% likely had a great finals weekend, favoring both match winners. 47% likely had a good time favoring Spain but also France. 11% favored the bronze medalists and runners-up, leaving 6% out there likely disappointed all around. Cheer up though, at least CITY won!

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 43 people that voted. Fallou is Player of the Match at 77%. Fallou and Edelman via Teuchert tied for Goal of the Match. Bonus is on which national team you're rooting for in the World Cup.

Options were limited only to those countries represented by our players and manager in the upcoming tournament (no Venezuela - Córdova). Full list is below.

Most of you voted interest in the USA (66%). Following that is Germany (32%), Senegal and South Korea tied at 16%. Then Czechia/Czech Republic and Norway both at 13% with Brazil at 11%. The remaining countries, Canada, France, Ghana, and Switzerland each have 5%.

Brazil - Pompeu, Santos

Canada - MacNaughton, Hiebert

Czech Republic - Ostrák

France - Damet

Germany - Baumgartl, Hartel, Löwen, Lundt, Teuchert

Ghana - Yaro

Norway - Totland, Wallem

Senegal - Fallou, Mbacke

South Korea - Jeong

Switzerland - Bürki

USA - Becher, Durkin, Edelman, Glover, Joyner, Orozco, Pearce, Perez, Polvara, Welsh

(not in the tournament, Venezuela - Córdova)

Bonus bonus -

To have a little fun with these results, I ran them through the bracket with the following scenario builder idea: higher interest teams do better than lower voted teams, and any of the countries in this setup advance past other placeholder opponents. The idea is to get the most matches for these countries while following community interest. Given the group assignments, top interests take top ranks within their group. USA is the only one of the CITY-associated countries in group D, so it takes the 1D spot. Likewise, Germany takes 1E. Senegal, Norway, and France are in group I, but with Senegal having the most interest, it takes 1I, followed by Norway at 2I, and France at 3I. Continuing down the list, South Korea takes 1A and Czechia has 2A. Brazil takes 1C. Canada takes 1B with Switzerland at 2B. Ghana then takes 1L. Loading these to the bracket is straightforward except for France in 3I. The top eight 3rd place teams get a spot in the expanded bracket, so I put France in a spot that maximizes match-ups that enhance interest while satisfying maximum depth of run. It could go to face 1G and then the USA, but USA already has peak interest. Instead, it gets an equally deep run while facing Canada. Alternatives would see it crash out in the first knockout round against Ghana or South Korea.

From there, you can see in the second image how everything pans out following a rule of interest ~ performance. The results shake out with USA in 1st (the only guaranteed result with this scenario game), defeating South Korea in the final. Germany takes 3rd vs Canada in the 3rd/4th place final. Czechia and Norway get to the semifinals. Senegal, Brazil, Ghana, and France get to the round of 16. Switzerland only gets to the knockout bracket, but all countries made it out of group stage. Best of real luck to each of your favorite teams!

Heads-up, for upcoming polls, I may use a different service like Tally instead of Google Forms.

Thanks to the 49 people that voted. Lundt is Player of the Match at 80%. Hartel's first goal from Totland's keeper pressure is Goal of the Match at 92%. Bonus is on the best of the tie-breaker PKs.  

Options included our four PKs along with the two saves by Lundt. Vote percentage are shown along the rating cards in the bonus area. Baumgartl has the most votes at 60%. Next are Lundt's saves vs Herrera (second save, match winning action) at 25% and vs Guilherme at 22%. Then we have Löwen (8%) and Durkin (6%). No one voted for Hartel's PK.

Thanks to the 35 people that voted. Jeong is Player of the Match at 49%. Bonus is on labeling how the draw felt.  

  

There were five options presented (with vote percentage) in declining sentiment order: "Like a win" (0%), "Grateful for a point" (41%), Like any other draw" (16%), "Like a loss" (35%), and "Tragedy" (8%).

Looking for correlations with other ratings, the main observation I saw was that declining feeling for the match actually trended with higher team rating. This may be tied with a feeling of greater disappointment for a team voters viewed as performing well otherwise. If voters were more strongly reactionary, then worse feelings about the draw would trend with worse ratings for the team, but that was not the case.

Thanks to the 56 people that voted. Totland is Player of the Match at 71% and has Goal of the Match at 96%. Bonus is on rating Becher's ability to draw fouls and create havoc.  

  

The average rating is 6.4 with middle 50% of votes ranging 5-8. Becher's player rating correlates well at 0.7 (both in value and in rank). The heatmap shows paired ratings of Becher's match rating (average of 4.5) vs the "Antics Rating". The faint diagonal line indicates ratings that are the same. The bulk of ratings tend to separate his match rating with positive evaluation of Becher's havoc-ability (upper left triangle filled far more than bottom right).

I got to wondering if there's anything positive the community sees in Becher's game, and drawing fouls and other antics seemed a strong, plausible area we might agree on. Certainly, there's cause for concern with goal scoring prioritization underlying a striker rating. He is racking up big chances missed (bcm), leading the team with 8 for the season, about double Córodva's rate per 90. Becher's conversion rate is also lower this year, 4%, compared to last year which was 7%. He's at 3.1xG with 2.6 shots per 90, 1.7xGOT with 0.5 shots on target per 90.

Interestingly, the team is middle of the pack for bcm with 21 total for the season ranking 13th. Looking at the top rank team for bcm, Vancouver Whitecaps, their leader is Brian White with 15 bcm for the season. HOWEVER, White has a conversation rate of 17% with 8 goals from 10.5xG with 4.1 shots per 90, 9.6xGOT with 2.1 shots on target per 90. Granted this comparison is with a national B-team striker, I think it gives context. Mainly, there is similarity in frustrating bcm volume, but there are large differences in chances attempted (1.5 shots per 90), on target attempts (1.4 shots on target per 90), conversion rate (13 percentage points). That suggests Becher is inefficient, not shooting enough, and possibly that service is lacking (White is on the receiving end of chances created a lot). (shot, goal, and chances stats from Fotmob)

Thanks to the 54 people that voted. Jeong is Player of the Match at 76%. Bonus is on rating the wind.  

  

The wind rated rather lackluster with 6.2 overall. HOWEVER, there is a large variation with the middle 50% of votes between 5 and 7, leaving the remaining 50% at 1-4 (25%) or 8-10 (25%).

Thanks to the 23 people that voted. Bürki is Player of the Match at 39%, tied with “None”. Bonus is on rating Damet’s halftime directive not to press so high and how well the team executed on that directive.

The average ratings for each part are shown above the box plots at 4.0 and 4.5, respectively. Both ratings suggest the directive was a bad idea and that the players did not abide the directive well. When viewing paired ratings, there wasn't clear correlation between the two. Responses tended to rate directive lower than execution or vice versa with few responses rating both at similar levels.

Thanks to the 51 people that voted. Löwen is Player of the Match at 86%. Löwen via Joyner is Goal of the Match at 77%. There are two bonuses, one on who you’d want to face in the Quarterfinal and one on RP VAR.

A few matches were not yet finished when posted, but I updated the options as votes rolled in. So the “Winner of...” options were combined with updated results. Vote percentages are shown for the potential opposition. Less than half of responses submitted after the draw, and less than half of those opted for Houston Dynamo FC who we will face at home for the Quarterfinal match. In the description, I’ve included each team’s current MLS regular season Supporters Shield rank along with relative differences in points and goal differentials compared to CITY (currently 28th with 6pts and -7GD).

From top votes to least:

Houston Dynamo FC (32%; 15th; +6pts; +1GD) - see you at the Park May 19th

Atlanta United (23%; 26th; +1pt; -1GD)

Colorado Rapids (21%; 12th; +7pts; +11GD)

Columbus Crew (11%; 17th; +6pts; +8GD)

Orlando City (11%; 27th; +1pts; -10GD)

San Jose Earthquakes (2%; 1st; +21pts; +26GD)

New York City FC (0%; 16th; +6pts; +10GD)

The other bonus asked you to role play as VAR, since there is no VAR in these earlier rounds of US Open Cup. Durkin made a challenge in the box during the 83’ which was questioned as a potential penalty if there was VAR. 71% did not figure it warranted review while 29% did. Considering Durkin’s luck, we’re likely benefiting from no VAR this match.

Spoiler is for the bonus amongst other details

Thanks to the 42 people that voted. Four trolls were detected and removed. Hartel is Player of the Match at 79%. Hartel via Becher is Goal of the Match at 54%. Bonus is on how you would have used the fifth, unused sub.

There were for sub timing options, based on the actual sub timings Damet used and at the half, since half time subs don't use one of the three sub windows. Options for sub out include only those starters that were not subbed out during the match. Options for sub in include only the available bench players that did not sub in during the match. Results shown only include those that had a clear choice for each of the three parts for the sake of simple interpretation.

Only half time and 75’ window sub times were ever selected from amongst options: half time, 75’, 81’, or 85’. Of the half time subbers (46% processed votes) 6% would have sought a defensive sub taking off Polvara and bringing on Fallou. The rest opted for bringing on Joyner either by taking off Durkin (3%) or Wallem (37%). The rest opted to use the 75’ window (54%). For defensive-leaning subs 3% chose Durkin, MacNaughton, Polvara, or Wallem each in favor of bringing on Fallou. Another 3% choose Durkin for Joyner, but the majority in this window have Wallem off to bring on Joyner (40%).

Obviously, we have hindsight, and taking Wallem out at half time would have been the only guaranteed avoidance for the penalty, since that came just before the 60’. Even so, most still figured subbing at 75’, which would live with the penalty while perhaps avoiding Werner’s winning goal, assuming time to track back and cover the run at MacNaughton. Either way, to bring on Joyner for Wallem could be risky given Joyner is quite new to the wingback role, even stating in recent weeks it's an area he's trying to learn. Given this, the formation and tactics might need a change too, albeit limited with a more fluid game state, so how would you accommodate a Wallem-Joyner sub (or any of the other options)?