u/snadubk

>With Oscar season predictions just around the corner (if you’re a maniac like me), lest we forget the little sister of cinema, (in Kenneth Parcell voice) “TELEVISION!” Yes, the 78th Emmy Awards are upon us yet again this September, with nominations being announced on Wednesday July 8, it’s time to make my last minute guesses as to who and what this year’s honorees will be.

>In the Drama Category, of course we have newcomers Task and Pluribus feeling like shoe-ins. The Mark Ruffalo cop drama that was initially positioned as a limited series, makes the sudden jump to Drama after a second season renewal announcement and Vince Gilligan’s sci-fi Apple series Pluribus blew the doors down on the competition last fall with an unforgettable pilot and a towering Rhea Seehorn performance. Seehorn seems very much in line to win her category after years of being ignored for her brilliant Kim Wexler in Better Call Saul (a performance she wouldn’t even be nominated for until the series’ last gasp). Her competition remains the formidable Keri Russell, this year’s SAG winner, with The Diplomat growing stronger each season.

>Stranger Things and Euphoria, once Emmy darlings, bow out with their extremely divisive but widely-seen finales. Euphoria faced harsher criticism, but those performances may be strong enough to rope the show back in one last time. Stranger Things, though, was the end of a global phenomenon and regardless of whether or not it can achieve any performance/writing/directing nominations, it may be too big to ignore in a Drama series category of 8.

>One series that continues to get better is The Gilded Age, a show with a fanbase that grows larger every year. I’ve seen a lot of doubt that The Gilded Age can crack the 8 this year despite it being the show’s best season, due to its competition, but I still have faith. The final scene of the season even had me saying under my breath “well, that’s Carrie Coon’s Emmy nomination sealed up.” But of course, as was the deal last year, The Pitt is going to steamroll the whole category. Expect many nominations for its supporting cast, many of which were overlooked last year, including Patrick Ball, Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, and Shawn Hatosy, moving up from Guest Actor into Supporting.

>In the Comedy Category, it goes without saying that Hacks‘ final season was everything it should have been, cementing itself as one of the great comedy series of the decade. Jean Smart will receive a win for every season of the show and Hannah Einbinder’s performance in the final episode should guarantee her a second win. Fingers crossed for an overdue Meg Stalter nomination. New Apple series Margo’s Got Money Troubles and Widow’s Bay came late in the voting season, but wowed everybody watching. Margo featuring the excellent trio of Elle Fanning, Nick Offerman, and Michelle Pfeiffer and sharp, empathetic writing, and Widow’s Bay being a brilliant horror/comedy mashup that excels in both departments, with a weirdness you could only expect with a show that mixes the creative teams of Parks and Recreation and Atlanta.

>This seemed like Martin Short’s year to finally win for Only Murders in the Building, with his prior competition out of the way, but Shrinking (a show I only thought was fine in its first season, but has blossomed into full comforted appreciation) is in for its best Emmys year yet with its best season, so Jason Segel may take this. Don’t count out Steve Carrell for Rooster, though, as the beloved comic star still has never won this category despite his career-making role as Michael Scott in The Office. Carell pairs his usually loud-comic abilities down while also steering away from the “asshole mode” he’s been stuck in the last few years (The Morning Show, The Four Seasons, etc.), to deliver a surprisingly gentle and nuanced portrait of an author-turned- college professor. The Bear, a former juggernaut, may struggle to maintain its popularity, but the fourth season really had a lot of special moments and career-best performances by its main actors. I can’t imagine we’re done with The Bear just year, especially as its final season just aired this week, and closed strong on a perfect return-to-form.

>My last note on Comedy Series is an obvious one: welcome to the Emmys, Ashley Padilla! Joining a select handful of SNL performers that become the default representative of their ensemble (Bowen Yang likely to get in as well with his last season), Padilla had the strongest debut last year for an SNL performer since Kate McKinnon (maybe even Kristen Wiig) and took charge in her second season to be the most featured player and the comic MVP of the series. We expect her to remain in this category for many years to come.

>And finally, in Limited Series, we are facing what I can only observe as a bit of a quality drought. Maybe we were spoiled in years such as 2021 when we had a category packed with Mare of Easttown, WandaVision, The Queen’s Gambit, The Underground Railroad, and I May Destroy You. This year is filled with “underwatched” and “underwhelming” contenders, with the likeliest winner in my eyes being the strangest one of the pack, DTF St. Louis. Perhaps if Task stayed here, the winner wouldn’t even be a conversation. But when your biggest threats are a season of Beef that many were unsatisfied with, the ultra soapy Peacock thriller All Her Fault, yet another Ryan Murphy historical retelling (two, in fact), perhaps a Netflix thriller people have already forgotten about but was a big hit for the platform, The Beast in Me, can shock. Richard Gadd’s Half Man was dramatically-investing but much softer-recieved in comparison to his prior phenomenon Baby Reindeer. DTF St. Louis, while perplexing, is still a pretty stunning acting showcase, all of which are competing Supporting despite Bateman and Harbour clearly co-leads. Harbour delivers the best television performance of the year and deserves his first Emmy win for his category.

FULL PREDICTIONS LIST HERE: https://jakobtalksfilm.com/2026/06/28/predictions-the-78th-emmy-awards-nominations/