u/the_mammynun

https://preview.redd.it/p5um1tet819h1.png?width=494&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ca9d26759aa14bee56862961a5ec656cc11a21c

It seems like the golden days of organic growth in retail may be officially over (for now). With 100% of retail revenue growth coming from new stores and M&A, should we conclude that the brand is losing momentum? Or does the decline come down to pricing pressure? Raj mentioned in the call that other retail chains are seeing the same, or worse declines. Obviously Rome wasn't built in a day, but something to keep an eye on.

Also, take a look at Membership and ELITE subscription. Looks like they are having a much harder time converting people to ELITE this year, and standard membership has decelerated significantly as well.

I think I've gotten to the bottom of some confusion surrounding which SNDL stores will be affected by the AGCO order. Originally I thought it was in reference to 46 SpiritLeaf and Superette stores, because those are the brands mentioned in the Globe article. However on further inspection, I believe those are simply the holding company names used for ValueBuds, and potentially a single corporately owned SpiritLeaf. Here's how the numbers play out:

SNDL has 45 ValueBuds stores and 30 Spiritleaf stores in Ontario. Superette seems to no longer exist outside the holding company name. These numbers lead me to believe that SNDL will have to liquidate all 45 ValueBuds locations and 1 corporately owned Spiritleaf, in addition to terminating all brand licensing agreements with the remaining 29 SpiritLeaf franchisees, who I'm assuming will continue to own and manage those stores.

Since SpiritLeaf is primarily a franchise, the franchisees are the license holders and thus no LP ownership conflict of interest. AGCO only appears to be targetting stores owned by SNDLs holding companies.

However it begs the question of what will happen to the Spiritleaf franchisees. They may be forced to rebrand if they want to stay in business.

SNDL may have their Ontario retail portfolio wiped out. They've been walking a fine line for years.

For those who haven't been following, in Ontario, LPs (growers) are only allowed a single "farmgate" retail location in the province.

SNDL however, decided they would use a legal loophole to create one of Ontario's largest retail chains while still being an LP. In order to do this they had to create a separate entity to manage their retail banner "Value Buds", and consolidate the store revenue in the form of "brand licensing fees". They had to give the appearance that they did not "control" this entity. For example they could not give SNDL products preferred placement in stores.

They must have come under further scrtunity during their attempted acquisition of 1CM (27 stores in Ontario), which officially failed as of June 1st.

This further scrutiny made regulators determine that the loophole was not acceptable, especially in regards to their SpiritLeaf and Superette brands, which appears to be managed by the same entity that manages Value Buds.

It appears SNDL will be forced to sell at least 45 stores in their portfolio (SpiritLeaf and Superette) , and it would not be surprising if their Value Buds portfolio follows.

Did you all see this?

https://sndl.com/news/news-details/2026/SNDL-Announces-Update-on-Arrangement-Agreement-with-1CM-for-Acquisition-of-Ontario-Cannabis-Stores/default.aspx

Only 5 of the original 32 store deal closed, none of which in Ontario. HITI remains the undisputed king.

High Tide is:

• A Canadian Retailer with 220 recreational cannabis stores and 12% market share across 5 Canadian provinces.
• A German Importer with 15% market share.
• A CPG company that purchases cannabis from Canadian growers and develops their own cannabis brands, as well as glassware and accessories.
• A US hemp-derived CBD CPG company. They operate Nuleaf Naturals and Fab CBD, are founding members of the NCAA, and intend to take part in the Medicare reimbursement program.
• An E-commerce platform: Dankstop, Grasscity, DailyHighClub, SmokeCartel are a few of their most popular websites where customers can buy glassware and accessories.

As you can see, High Tide is not an LP.