First Marathon, Sub 4 possibility?
Hello guys. Am running in the bali marathon on August 23. Have 14 weeks left, and am trying to target a sub 4. https://strava.app.link/vkWGmeCEj3b strava link
Current PR's
23:49 5km (2 weeks ago)
50:15 10km (11 months ago)
1:55:00 21km (9 months ago)
I've been running since september 2024, and I started training consistently for this marathon starting March of this year. Been progressing quite well, and so far no injuries. I think I can get to running 60kms consistently per week by the middle of June.
I run 4-5x a week, long run on sundays (around 15-17km).
I attached here my past 3 months mileage, as well as strava's current time predictions. Based on everything I've seen on calculators, I am fast enough to hit sub 4. But what really concerns me is my easy pace, and how my hr drifts during any runs where I don't take a 5 minute rest.
My easy pace, or roughly 140hr pace is 6:40 per km. Am 32M. I can hold this for maybe 45 mins, before my hr will start to go up to 145 ish.
My marathon predictor on strava is 4:19 vs my half of 1:49. My coach has me do VO2 work, and intervals once a week, and am wondering if I should ditch it for more volume. After 12 weeks of consistent work, I dropped 11 minutes from my strava predictor. I dunno how to drop the 19 minutes in 14 weeks hahaha. Please help.