Ερασιτεχνική ΑΕΚ: απολογισμός με πολλά ερωτηματικά

Στη Γ.Σ. της 30/6 εγκρίθηκε ομόφωνα ο οικονομικός απολογισμός 2025 της Ερασιτεχνικής ΑΕΚ. Σύμφωνα με ρεπορτάζ (δεν έχω δει το ίδιο το επίσημο έγγραφο, οπότε παρ'τε το με μια δόση επιφύλαξης):

Σύνολο εσόδων = Σύνολο εξόδων = 2.946.726€ (κυριολεκτικά ίσα, μέχρι το ευρώ)

Ενδεικτικά κονδύλια εξόδων που αναφέρθηκαν:

  • Οδοιπορικά αθλητών: 834.000€ (~28% του συνόλου)
  • Αμοιβές αθλητών: 500.000€
  • Έξοδα αγώνων φυτωρίων: 187.000€
  • Έξοδα αγώνων: 176.462€
  • Λοιπά έξοδα: 153.460€
  • Οδοιπορικά προπονητών: 70.000€
  • Λοιπά μικρότερα κονδύλια (αμοιβές προπονητών, ενοίκια, δικαστικά, εξοπλισμός κλπ)

Για τα έσοδα δεν δόθηκε αναλυτική κατανομή στο ρεπορτάζ, μόνο γενικές πηγές: κάρτα φίλου, 10% από ΠΑΕ, 10% από ΚΑΕ, και 427.000€ από στοίχημα.

Τι μου φαίνεται περίεργο:

  1. Η απόλυτη ισοσκέλιση εσόδων-εξόδων. [Edit: Φαίνεται ότι χρησιμοποιούν μια περιεργη ταμειακη λογιστικη αντι για accrual accounting αλλα και παλι δεν γιντεαι τα εσοδα να είναι ακριβως ιδια με τα εξοδα]
  2. Καμία αναλυτική κατανομή εσόδων που να επαληθεύει το σύνολο.
  3. Τα 834.000€ οδοιπορικά αθλητών είναι το μεγαλύτερο μεμονωμένο κονδύλι, χωρίς ανάλυση ανά τμήμα/αγώνα (γελάει ο κόσμος με τόσο υψηλά οδοιπορικά, με Lambo μετακινούνται;)
  4. Δεν είναι ξεκάθαρο αν ο έλεγχος έγινε από ανεξάρτητο ορκωτό λογιστή ή από εσωτερική εξελεγκτική επιτροπή του σωματείου, μεγάλη διαφορά ως προς αξιοπιστία.
  5. Η υπερβολικά χαμηλή συμμετοχή (63 μέλη) μειώνει τον βαθμό ελέγχου που μπορεί να ασκηθεί από τη βάση. Αυτό το έκτρωμα δηλαδή πέρασε από ομοφωνία...63 μελών. Γελάει ο κόσμος.

υ.γ. γράφω στο footy, καθώς έχω ήδη τιμηθεί με μόνιμο ban από το r/AEKAthensFC για... φιλο-ισραηλινά σχόλια. Προφανώς θέλεις δελτίο οπαδού της Χαμάς για να γράψεις εκεί πέρα.

reddit.com
u/tuscan21 — 4 days ago

Realistic to job-hunt in Danish finance (controlling/FP&A) as an EU citizen with no Danish?

Hi all,

I'm considering a move to Denmark and trying to get a realistic read before I go all-in on applications. Honest takes appreciated, even the discouraging ones.

Quick background about me:

  • EU citizen (so no work permit needed)
  • ~10 years in finance: financial controlling / FP&A / business partnering, mostly in the energy sector
  • Two finance master's, passed CFA Level 2, CIMA in progress
  • Main tools: SAP, advanced Excel, Power BI (Power BI is a strong point for me)
  • English is fluent (work and daily life), but my Danish is basically zero right now

I've been looking at roles around Copenhagen and Aarhus (Business Controller, FP&A, Finance Business Partner type stuff) at bigger and international companies, and a lot of the postings say "English required, Danish an advantage."

I'll be honest, one of the things that makes Denmark attractive to me is the researcher/expat tax scheme (the ~32.84% flat rate for higher earners). What I'm trying to figure out:

  1. How realistic is it actually to land a finance role without Danish? Is "Danish is a plus" genuine, or is it usually code for "you won't get it without Danish"?
  2. Is the finance/controlling market decent right now, or pretty tight?
  3. For someone applying from abroad, do companies really consider you, or do foreign CVs mostly get filtered out before anyone looks?
  4. For those who've used the expat tax scheme, is it as good in practice as it looks on paper? Any catches I should know about?
  5. Anything you wish you'd known before starting this kind of job search here?

I'm happy to learn Danish over time. Any real experience (especially from other internationals in finance) would help a lot. Thanks!

reddit.com
u/tuscan21 — 5 days ago

do or die territory for ICP

Let’s take a brutal, unfiltered look at one of the most disgusting financial charts in the history of assets. If you ever want to explain to someone what aggressive VC dumping, relentless seed-round exit liquidity, and a hyper-inflationary foundation burn rate look like, just show them the yearly performance of Internet Computer (ICP).

Look at these numbers. Assuming an initial $10,000 investment at the 2021 launch peak, watch how retail capital was systematically vaporized year by year:

  • 2021: -90.21% 🛑 (Your $10,000 shrivels into a miserable $979)
  • 2022: -84.65% 📉 (The bleed continues. Your balance drops to $150)
  • 2023: +230.42% 🤡 (The ultimate dead-cat bounce fakeout. You "rally" back to $497)
  • 2024: -23.60% 🐻 (The slow grind downward resumes. You are left with $379)
  • 2025: -72.95% 📉 (Another brutal leg down. Your portfolio hits rock bottom at $103)
  • 2026: -29.48% 💀 (Year-to-date misery. Your original $10,000 is now worth exactly $72)

How Did We Get Here? The Three-Headed Monster

ICP's price action is the direct result of three massive fundamental pressures:

  1. The Seed Round & Early Backer Exit: Early investors bought ICP for literal pennies. Every single month, unlocked tokens hit the market. For them, selling at $5, $3, or even $2 is still an astronomical profit. Retail investors were nothing but exit liquidity for Silicon Valley VCs who had entered at $0.03.
  2. DFINITY's Massive Corporate Burn Rate: The DFINITY Foundation employs over 100 high-priced engineers and cryptographers in Zurich (one of the most expensive cities on Earth). To pay those fiat salaries and keep the lights on, they have been forced to continuously dump millions of ICP tokens straight onto the market, capping any organic price growth.
  3. The "8-Year Gang" Trap: While retail got slaughtered, the core community locked up nearly half the circulating supply for up to 8 years in the Network Nervous System (NNS) DAO. They are trapped watching their capital dissolve, relying entirely on staking rewards that just add more inflationary tokens to the pile.

The Death Spiral vs. The "Mission 70" Hail Mary

At the current ~$2 price level, the project is officially in "Do or Die" territory.

If the price stays here, DFINITY will have to dump exponentially more tokens just to cover their monthly operating expenses, accelerating the death spiral toward zero.

The only thing standing between ICP and total oblivion is their frantic "Mission 70" overhaul. They are desperately trying to cut token inflation by 70%, shift node provider rewards away from pure token minting, and force actual enterprise utility through Decentralized AI (Caffeine V3) to burn up supply.

If you are still holding, what is your coping mechanism?

reddit.com
u/tuscan21 — 6 days ago

I tried to value ICP on a P/S basis.

P/S is borrowed from equities and fits a token badly, ICP isn't stock, it has no "sales" in an accounting sense. The closest proxy is the value of cycles burned for compute (reverse-gas model). So treat this as a rough exercise, not a real valuation.

Inputs (verify before trusting, these move daily):

  • Market cap ≈ $1.2B, ~554M ICP circulating,
  • "Revenue" is where it gets messy. Sources disagree by ~5–30x: DefiLlama shows ~$1.4M/yr, CoinGecko's 24h fees annualize to ~$7.8M, and the weekly burn rate implies ~$5.7M/yr.

So the P/S lands anywhere from ~155x to ~850x depending on whose number you use. For context, even expensive high-growth SaaS rarely tops 30x.

The reverse read is the interesting part: at a generous 20–30x multiple, current fees would only justify a market cap of ~$28M–$160M, roughly 87–95% below today's price. Flip it and the network would need ~$40–60M in annual fees (5–40x current) to justify $1.2B on P/S alone.

Translation: almost the entire valuation is forward expectation + staking/monetary premium (~63% of supply is staked) + governance, not current monetization.

TLDR: on a pure P/S basis ICP looks wildly expensive, but that's true of basically every L1 infra token.

reddit.com
u/tuscan21 — 6 days ago

[Update] Roast my options strategy again, now with 4 weeks of live data (19 trading days)

Original thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/algotrading/s/5PYaN8YmIL

A few weeks ago I posted my first 2 weeks of results and got deservedly roasted for small sample size, tail risk, overfitting concerns, and “this will blow up eventually.”
Fair enough.
Now I have 19 live trading days instead of 9, so I wanted to post an update with more metrics and get another round of criticism from people who actually know risk/statistics.
Strategy trades mostly short dated options (0-4 DTE). Mix of intraday and overnight holds. Fully systematic execution through my own bot.
Current live results after 19 observations:
• Total return: about +39%
• New NAV $110K from $95K
• April: +18.6%
• May so far: +18.7%
• Mean daily return: +2.15%
• Median daily return: -0.43%
• Daily vol: 8.7%
• Max drawdown: 12.87%
• Sharpe (ann.): 3.93
• Sortino (ann.): 10.06
• Tail ratio: 2.5
• RoMaD: 3.17
• Win day %: 42.1%
• Avg win day: +$8.2k
• Avg loss day: -$3.1k
• Best/Worst day ratio: 1.87
• Worst3/TotalPnL: -0.68
• Time underwater: 63%
A few interesting things:
Median day is still negative despite strong total returns.
This immediately tells me the strategy is NOT “smooth alpha.” It’s driven by convex winners and a few outsized days. Fridays are massively dominant.
Two huge Fridays account for a large part of total PnL:
+13%
+22%
So one major concern is obvious:
Am I actually harvesting a repeatable volatility/earnings edge, or am I just one lucky Friday away from flat performance?
Beta to SPY/QQQ is statistically meaningless right now.
R² is basically zero.
Confidence intervals on beta are enormous.
So I’m not claiming market neutrality or true alpha yet.
Tracking error is absurdly high (~140%).
Which makes sense because this thing behaves more like a convex volatility strategy than an equity strategy.
Distribution is positively skewed.
Negative median, positive skew, low win rate, large winners >> losers.
Main things I’m trying to figure out now:
• Whether the edge is real or just concentrated randomness
• Whether overnight holds are the actual alpha source
• Whether intraday trades are mostly noise/whipsaw
• Whether I should aggressively reduce Monday exposure
• Whether position sizing is still too large for the observed variance
• How to distinguish convexity from hidden fragility
Biggest losing day so far:
-11.7%
Biggest winning day so far:
+21.9%
I know 19 observations is still statistically weak. I’m not pretending otherwise. What I’m looking for from experienced people here:
• What metrics would you focus on next?
• What would convince you this is NOT overfit garbage?
• What hidden risks do you think I’m underestimating?
• Does this profile look more like genuine convex edge or classic future blow-up material?

u/tuscan21 — 2 months ago