In the same way that next token prediction on internet text led to better world modeling and interesting emegent capabilites as a result, I think "next event" prediction would lead to further scaling improvement, but this time from RL, which means it's additive
I think, like Scott, a lot of people on this sub have an interest in both AI and forecasting. I'm fairly confident that over the next three years we are going to be seeing superhuman LLM forecasters because of purposeful forecasting post-training, and wrote a blog post articulating why.
It was originally meant to be a paper, but since I think this area is pretty broadly interesting I decided to write it as a blog post first, I hope the format works.