Moderna gained 3 times its market cap in one trading session over good progress on their cancer drug.

Do we have something like that?

ABCL635 produced an 83% week-4 reduction in moderate-to-severe hot-flash frequency versus 33% on placebo, with no serious adverse events or liver signal. One day later AbCellera launched a proposed US$200 million primary offering of common shares and pre-funded warrants to fund ABCL635 and general corporate purposes. The offering priced on August 12 at US$9.75 per share: 17,435,897 common shares plus pre-funded warrants for a further 3,076,926 shares, US$200.0 million gross, with delivery on or about August 14.

https://13f.info/manager/0001263508/cusip/00288U106

Hi, I randomly stumbled across this stock, similar to how I found SLS in late 2025 and DRTS in early 2026. Just wondering if you guys honestly think it’s too late to invest and what the potential upside might look like, considering it’s already up 66% this week.

Hey everyone, I’ve been investing in Abcellera for the past two months. I find their leadership, technology platform, and the high-profile investors on their cap table highly compelling

With the company's recent shift toward its internal pipeline, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on how ABCL635 will find its place in the massive menopause market (estimated at a 20–30B TAM)

Right now, the landscape is heavily dominated by Hormone Replacement Therapies or HRTs in short

HRTs are significantly cheaper, widely adopted, and offer systemic benefits beyond just treating hot flashes.

Given that, how do you see ABCL635 competing? Would love to hear your thoughts

Does anyone else have calls expiring later this month? If so, what are your plans with them? Are you gonna acash settle or are you gonna take the shares?

I have 2 contracts for $6 i can’t decide if i should cash settle and hope it drops back to 5 or do we think $8-10 is the new floor and we are past 4-6 zone?

If 12 weeks data confirms the 4 weeks data - what are peoples expectations on how the market reacts? Same or big bump?

AbCellera brings together:

• Proven antibody-discovery technology
• Internally owned drug programs
• Partner-funded programs with milestone and royalty economics
• Clinical-stage assets
• Large-scale discovery, development and manufacturing infrastructure
• Government-supported infrastructure investment
• Transitioning from a partnership driven company toward a full fledged pharmaceutical company.

The key idea is simple: the platform has already demonstrated its ability to generate clinically useful antibodies.

A diversified drug pipeline

Rather than valuing AbCellera like a single-drug biotech, it can be viewed as a portfolio of independent drug programs.

Portfolio value ≈ value per program × number of programs

Each candidate has a relatively low probability of ultimately reaching approval, but a successful drug can generate hundreds of millions—or potentially billions—of dollars in value.

The portfolio can therefore expand in two ways:

• Existing programs advance through development
• AbCellera continuously generates new programs

This makes the model fundamentally different from a biotech company dependent on a small, fixed pipeline.

Asymmetric drug economics

Drug development has high failure rates but potentially enormous rewards.

Typical economics:

• Development can take roughly a decade
• Most drug candidates ultimately fail
• Successful drugs can generate substantial lifetime revenue
• Partnered programs can produce milestones and royalties
• Fully owned programs allow AbCellera to retain significantly more economics

The result is a portfolio where many programs may contribute little, while a small number of major successes could create substantial value.

Platform has proven commercial success

COVID provided an unusually fast real-world validation of AbCellera’s platform.

AbCellera rapidly identified an antibody candidate that Eli Lilly ultimately commercialized. The resulting programs generated roughly $1B in cumulative royalty revenue for AbCellera before viral variants reduced their relevance.

This matters because AbCellera's capabilities aren't purely theoretical—the platform has already produced a commercially successful medicine at scale.

Diversification reduces single-drug risk

A typical early-stage biotech may spend hundreds of millions developing one or two drugs. If those programs fail, much of the company’s value can disappear.

AbCellera works differently.

Its development cycle looks more like:

Partners → programs → biological data + improved technology → faster discovery → better molecules → more programs → repeat

One clinical failure therefore does not necessarily invalidate the broader platform.

The long-term question becomes whether AbCellera can consistently generate competitive drug candidates across many programs, rather than whether one specific molecule succeeds.

A repeatable drug-creation engine

AbCellera isn't simply developing individual drugs.

It is building infrastructure designed to repeatedly discover and advance new drug candidates.

More programs generate more biological data. More data can improve discovery capabilities. Better discovery can attract additional partners and support more internally owned programs.

That creates the potential for a self-reinforcing drug-development platform where the number and quality of opportunities can expand over time.

Partnerships

AbCellera has worked with dozens of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

The appeal for partners is straightforward:

Instead of building every specialized antibody-discovery capability internally, pharmaceutical companies can use AbCellera's platform to pursue difficult biological targets.

AbCellera can receive:

upfront payments → research payments → milestones → royalties

while internally developed programs provide the opportunity to retain substantially more of a drug's eventual economics.

Capturing more of the drug value chain

AbCellera has evolved substantially beyond its original discovery-partnership model.

It is no longer simply discovering antibodies for partners.

It is becoming a clinical-stage drug developer itself, with internally developed programs including ABCL635 and ABCL575.

That changes the potential economics considerably:

Discovery partner: captures a smaller portion of a successful drug's economics.

Drug owner: can potentially retain a majority of a drug's value.

AbCellera is therefore expanding across:

antibody discovery → drug creation → clinical development → potential commercialization

ABCL635 validates the internal model

ABCL635 is particularly important because it originated from AbCellera's own GPCR/ion-channel discovery capabilities and has produced positive Phase 2 results.

A single dose produced:

• 83% reduction in hot-flash frequency at Week 4
• Versus 33% for placebo
• 58% reduction in severity
• Versus 12% for placebo

These results provide important evidence that AbCellera can use its platform not only to discover drugs for partners, but also to create promising internally owned clinical assets.

Access to large pharmaceutical markets

Antibody medicines already represent a major pharmaceutical category.

But AbCellera's opportunity isn't limited to one disease or therapeutic market.

Its platform can potentially generate medicines across:

endocrinology + women's health + immunology + oncology + additional therapeutic areas

The addressable opportunity therefore spans the combined pharmaceutical markets where AbCellera's technology can generate differentiated medicines.

A continuously expanding pipeline

AbCellera's portfolio isn't designed to remain fixed.

If the company simply developed a limited group of candidates and waited for them to succeed or fail, it would still resemble a diversified biotech.

Instead, the platform is designed to continually generate additional candidates.

Therefore:

More programs + advancing programs + improving technology = potentially greater portfolio value over time

Programs can also become substantially more valuable as they progress from:

discovery → preclinical → Phase 1 → Phase 2 → Phase 3 → approval

because each successful stage reduces some of the uncertainty surrounding the asset.

Risk versus potential reward

AbCellera has multiple underlying sources of potential value:

ABCL635 + ABCL575 + future internal drugs + partnered programs + royalties + milestones + discovery platform + manufacturing infrastructure

The biggest risks remain clinical failures, continued cash burn and the cost of developing internally owned drugs.

But the potential returns are highly asymmetric. A successful blockbuster could create billions of dollars in value, while AbCellera continues generating and advancing additional drug candidates.

If AbCellera can repeatedly discover and develop clinically successful antibodies, it could eventually be valued less like a conventional early-stage biotech and more like a scalable, integrated drug-development platform with a continuously expanding pipeline.

BOY WAS MY INITIAL THINKING ON THE OFFERING WRONG!

Key notes from here: being offered at $9.75 a share!

Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, Cantor, UBS Investment Bank and BMO Capital Markets are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.

Reddit won’t let me post the link but it’s on their X and LinkedIn.

90% of my net worth, all-in on ABCL. May the biotech gods have mercy on my soul. 🥲
Zero shares I have sold

Hi Everyone.

Before starting this community, I had a thesis. That thesis was that AbCellera would evolve to become the core infrastructure for drug discovery. It's been a grueling few years, but the patience is starting to pay off. When fundamentals are improving while the stock price is declining, you are set up for an asymmetrical opportunity. Today marks the inflection point in that thesis.

I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has joined and contributed to this community. I never expected it to grow this large, and grateful that I get to share this journey with all of you. You should all be proud.

Long and strong.

-Stonkstronaut

👍

Saw some X posts that there could be potential dilution to get funding + buffer for commercialization of ABCL635.

Didn’t get a chance to see the readout press conference and not plugged into financial games of biotech like that. I know there’s cash available already but is this a legit concern or just fear mongering?

Curious to hear your thoughts on this -

1. What would ABCL 575's phase 1 readout mean for the stock, if it's positive or negative since it's not going to move past P1?

2. What about 12 weeks readouts of ABCL 635? Would that have an impact on the share price?

3. When is a reasonable timeline for Phase 3 to begin, and end for ABCL 635?

4. When can we expect indications for ABCL 688 and 386 to be revealed? this year?