MY FINAL Take on family rates
So far i have tried to tell that the rates are fake but people who dont understand probability seem to just call it unlucky even when presented with facts, i will now provide my proof i could get thus far about the rates
the game says rates are 0.05% which comes up to 1 in 2k spins, now this does not guarantee a 1 in 2k because these are independent spins meaning the other spins dont affect the chances of other spins, but when the spins are taken into large numbers the expected probability is shown it is undeniable, thus i tried my best to get data thru media, i will now separate the data into 2 types:
VISUAL PROOF
NON VISUAL/WORD OF MOUTH
(Readers can doubt the non visual as people may be lying)
TO prove my point i have also made a roblox experience to show the rates, this game has the rates that AOTR displays, u can try different number of spins in a split second to understand what the rate should be giving, try all the numbers given below and compare what u get vs what they(below) get click -> test
THE DATA IS AS SUCH(VISUAL)
I went through youtube to find out peoples spins and their results(only large quantity spins are taken more than 1k) as people post getting mythic in 5,10,100 spins to showcase luck,
the youtubers visited are as such are
1(25k, 1 myth)
2(11.5k, stopped at 1 myth)
3(4k, nothing)
4(27.5k, nothing)
5(11k, 2 myth)
6(6k, nothing)
7(4.7k, nothing)
8(pukumash goat, 7.3k, nothing)
9(12.2k, nothing)
10(10k, nothing)
11(streamed it too, 30k, nothing)
12(10k, 1 myth)
youtube didnt show more videos in past 10 days i tried(drop if u have more)
from what i said earlier these spins are independent spins so combining the numbers wont hurt the results, as for the expected rates from these would be
159,200 spins and 5 mythics
159,200/5 would come at a 32k spins average for a mythic family
rates are 0.05(2x fam) which would make it 1 in 2k but the results show a clear rate of 1/32k
making the chances of a mythic be 0.003% not 0.05% i would request to read the non visual for some more proof(hint: the data matches it)
NON VISUAL PROOF/WORD OF MOUTH
i recently made a post, where i asked people to tell their spins amount honestly with the amount of mythics they gained, the post got alot of replies and from the replies thus far i will make the calcs u can view the post yourself to see
the number of spins in total from post: 1,259,200 so 1.25m spins in total
and in total there were 33 mythic obtained over these many pulls and as such the chances here would be
1 in 38k meaning a 0.002% chance to get mythic not 0.05% once again
proof what the actual results should be from my experience that u guys can also play test
CONCLUSION
Both the RATES come close to 1 in 32k, but as i said probability in large numbers come to displayed chances u can read this official wiki to understand, so being that both proof and non proof variant have some similar results, its no coincidence that those ARE the real rates, i would ask everyone to share this post and let everyone know the real rates they should be expecting, people who spent 50K+ spins u guys are not a 1in 72billion unlucky, the rates are fake, the rates concluded from these tests can be tested ur self and ur method of testing everything is given openly, ROBLOX seems to not be not aware of the fake rates, as such i will report the game for fake displayed rated as it is illegal to show fake rates and goes against ROBLOX TOS, and anyone who seems to agree should also think about reporting through the roblox app, if the rates are not fake the reports will lead the roblox team to eventualy not do anything to the game, nothing will happen so reporting anyway is okay, and if the game is showing fake rates they will 100% fix it, no developer will throw the entire game for this matter, they would rather accept and try to compensate, I WILL NOW REPORT UNDER ROBLOX TOS BREACH TO ROBLOX, thanks for reading this far and please spread this post please atleast try to fight back the fake rates and report it, there have been thousands of people calling these rates fake on youtubetoo and it isnt a coincedence