For 23 days now, the oil chart has been repeating every single move from our forecast and giving us a hint of what could happen in the near future.

In my view, we are in the final stage of escalation, after which we could see a longer ceasefire and stabilization in oil prices.

Stable oil prices = lower inflation.

Lower inflation = softer Fed rhetoric.

Softer Fed rhetoric = risk-on mode for markets.

Especially since the US midterm elections are getting closer, and somehow they need to deal with the biggest headache of the last few months.

I’m not 100% sure that the rest of the expectations shown on the chart will play out perfectly, but the main idea is that either we will soon see new peace agreements.

Or Iran pushes back for now, we get one more round of escalation from the US, which would fully play out the expectations on the chart, and only after that they suddenly reach an agreement and move toward peace.

Autumn is usually considered a pretty good period for markets and business activity to recover, so we could still get some turbulence until the end of summer, but after that it’s time for some positive developments.