r/DisasterUpdate

JMA confirmed no changes in volcanic monitoring data after the June 26th M5.6 at 20km depth near Fujikawaguchiko. The agency issued a standard one-week caution window citing 10-20% historical frequency of comparable follow-up events.

The part missing from most coverage: the 2012 NIED study estimated magma chamber pressure beneath Fuji at 1.6 MPa following the Tōhoku earthquake — 16x the 0.1 MPa threshold associated with the 1707 Hōei eruption, which occurred 49 days after the M8.6 Nankai earthquake, well outside the standard monitoring window.

Full analysis with sources: https://youtu.be/l0A7xswu1sM?is=68d-VS0lv6j3tvTt