r/ECUsports

(3) Rice will return later today to play (4) UAB in an elimination game.

What a difference a day makes — or in East Carolina baseball’s case, 14 days.

Two weeks ago, few questioned whether ECU was bound for yet another trip to the national tournament. It had just swept fellow American Conference member South Florida in convincing fashion. Even after an April 28 defeat against N.C. State in Raleigh, D1baseball.com projected ECU safely into an NCAA regional as a No. 2 seed.

But back-to-back series losses against league foes have some national pundits punting the Pirates out of postseason contention. After documenting almost every game since February’s opening loss to Xavier, I’d have to agree.

ECU’s current dilemma is twofold.

One, the club is simply running into unfavorable math.

After this past weekend’s preventable series loss to Rice, ECU dropped to No. 52 in the NCAA D-I Baseball RPI rankings. Typically, teams lingering in the 50s are on the proverbial bubble and barely have a puncher’s chance of sneaking into the field of 68.

As of Tuesday, Baseball America had the Pirates among the first four teams out. USA Today is more optimistic, accepting them by way of “Last Four In” invites. And D1 Baseball also had ECU tip-toeing into a regional.

The only scheduled games left on the Pirates’ ledger now is a three-game road stint at Florida Atlantic, starting Thursday. This week, FAU held an RPI ranking of 117. A potential sweep would do nothing to get off the bubble. And if the Pirates drop one or more of those contests, they can pretty much kiss at-large dreams goodbye.

The other part of their dilemma is a growing disinterest in American teams.

No club in the conference currently holds an RPI above 50. That means the opportunities left to secure another signature win just aren’t there.

Even a deep run in next week’s league tournament won’t clear the muddy waters. The Pirates’ only real shot at a resume builder now is if they draw No. 50 UTSA in Clearwater, Fla.

Ultimately, the 35 tournament teams chosen by the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee will be picked apart and well vetted. When ECU comes up in its discussion room, early-season wins against ranked opponents UNC and Coastal Carolina will undoubtedly matter.

But a club’s current situation also matters.
Right now, the Pirates have lost four of their last five and are 5-5 through the past 10 contests. Not to mention the fact that two of their top three pitchers are done for the season due to arm surgeries. And canceling a midweek matchup without plausible justification, just shortly after the NCAA urged programs not to, can’t sit well with committee members.

ECU skipper Cliff Godwin, for his part, is telling his crew all the right things as they make a push for another conference title.

“We talked about it, that we were still in second place (in the American),” he said following Sunday’s win against the Owls. “And I have no idea what everybody else does. I don’t care what everybody else does. I care about how we play and our mentality.”

Well, the master motivator will have to do it again this year if he wants ECU to see its name on Selection Monday. A second straight improbable conference tourney title is the likeliest route there.

The next 14 days must be almost perfect for the Pirates if they want to dance in this year’s NCAA tournament