r/EVbetting

Every model I've seen has Holloway priced around 1.25, and you can still get him at most books around 1.45. The public is overvaluing McGregor's name. May the winners be yours.

We’ve been building a sports betting platform over the past several months, and I’d love some honest feedback from people who actually bet.

The platform combines:

Game prediction engine
Expected Value (+EV)
Line shopping across sportsbooks
Market implied probability
Edge analysis
Live Arbitrage Scanning

One thing we spent a lot of time improving is explaining why the predicted winner isn’t always the recommended bet. Sometimes the favorite is more likely to win, but the underdog offers significantly better value because the odds are mispriced.

I’d love to know:

Is the dashboard easy to understand?
What’s confusing?
What metrics would you add or remove?
What could make this more useful to you?

Free lifetime access for beta testers. Appreciate any feedback (good or bad). We’re still actively building and iterating. 🤲🏼

Website: clutchodds.com
X: @ClutchOddsApp
Instagram: @ClutchOddsApp

On roadmap:

- More Sportsbooks
- Value Bet Profit calculation

I keep seeing people say "don't worry about whether the bet won, just check if you beat the closing line." But how much stock should I actually put in CLV as a signal? If I'm consistently getting a better number than the close but still losing more than I win over a decent sample, is that just variance, or does it mean my line shopping isn't actually finding real edges? Trying to figure out if CLV alone is enough to tell me I'm making +EV bets or if I need something else to confirm it.

I’ve been using oddsjam for a couple months now, started off great made like 5k my first 4 weeks or so. The 5 or so weeks since then I have pretty much exclusively lost money on oddsjam and am now down a couple thousand overall (not including the cost of oddsjam). Everyone I talk to gives me different answers as to what is going on (even people at oddsjam). Some people were saying variance or to not bet certain things, their one and only “betting coach” claims to take +EV action shown on the exchanges like novig (everyone else seems to agree this is not a good idea), he also says to put in as many plays as possible and to trust oddsjam. I devig to pinnacle worst case and have placed close to 2000 bets and I follow the recommended bet size as best I can. I know the founder sold oddsjam about 18 months ago. I was thinking this was all variance at first but I’m beginning to think I something else is going on. I am going to just paper trade on there for the month of July and see how it goes but clearly there is something I am missing.

I’m looking for a EV scanner, smart money scanner, and dfs fantasy scanner. Something similar to prop professor but hopefully around the $25 per
Month price range.

I currently have a year long subscription for oddsjam fantasy optimizer. I’m paying $25 a month and doing rather well 48% roi, i just want more options.

What’s out there these days? Must have free trials!

Going to post my BettorBoss research every day here for the next month.

These games are all roughly +2 days out, so there's still time to get on early if anything catches your eye.

Some really useful info below that could give you a nice edge if you're looking through the card yourself.

As always, bet responsibly and GL if you follow anything.

International - FIFA World Cup
France vs Sweden
Main edge: Sweden's starting centre-back Isak Hien is ruled out of the tournament due to injury, compounding existing defensive vulnerabilities.

International - FIFA World Cup
Ivory Coast vs Norway
Main edge: Ivory Coast's first-choice right-back Wilfried Singo is ruled out due to a hamstring injury, weakening their defense.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Queen's Park vs Clyde
Main edge: Queen's Park's long-term first-choice goalkeeper has been replaced, creating potential instability in their defense.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Shamrock vs Hibernian
Main edge: Hibernian are likely to manage minutes heavily as they are in early pre-season, impacting their competitive readiness.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Nairn vs Elgin City
Main edge: Nairn have lost long-serving goalkeeper Dylan Maclean, impacting their depth and experience.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
FC Silon Taborsko vs Amstetten
Main edge: SKU Amstetten is undergoing a significant squad transition with multiple key departures and a new head coach implementing heavy rotation.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
FC Eiserfeld vs Siegen
Main edge: Sportfreunde Siegen is experiencing moderate disruption due to significant squad turnover with ten departures and new signings integrating into the team.

Hi, does anyone have access to Betfair Pro historical data for 2026 that they'd be willing to sell at a discounted price? Alternatively, I'm happy to buy the data myself and split the cost with someone if they're willing to contribute. I already have access to the 2024 and 2025 Pro data, so I'd also be open to a trade where I provide the 2024/2025 data in exchange for the 2026 data.

After receiving countless messages asking how to find value bets, and seeing how many people struggle to understand what value actually is in sports betting, I decided to build a free Telegram app that teaches exactly that and helps track whether you truly have an edge.

The app was designed primarily for beginners and anyone who wants to understand how betting really works. The process is simple: Select a match and the odds offered by your bookmaker. Then estimate how often you believe a player or team would win out of 100 matches. For example, if the odds are 2.00, the implied probability is 50%. If you believe Team A would win 52 out of 100 matches against Team B, then you have identified a value bet.

The app doesn't just teach the concept, it tracks your results as well. You can monitor performance using: Flat staking Suggested staking (½ Kelly Criterion) With Kelly staking, if you have a stronger edge on a particular selection, the app will recommend a larger stake. This allows you to track not only your bets, but also the quality of the value you're finding and how confident you are in each pick.

The app also provides detailed betting statistics, showing: Which sports you're strongest in (Football, Basketball, or Tennis) Singles and Accumulators performance Complete betting history and records Every bet is stored and tracked directly through Telegram. The ultimate goal is simple: after a large enough sample of bets, the app can help determine whether you genuinely have an edge or whether your results are driven by luck. It allows you to test your betting skills completely free, without risking real money while learning. For anyone new to betting, it's a great way to understand the fundamentals of value betting and expected value. Everything is completely free and will always remain free. So if you want try, just contact me

https://reddit.com/link/1uf7nee/video/rqymprhs1f9h1/player

How does ValueIQ work? Here’s a video demonstration showing how easy it is to use ValueIQ completely free of charge. Simply enter the name of a match, for example Ecuador vs Germany, and select the odds offered by your bookie. In this example, I used the odds from Bet365: 5.50 for an Ecuador win, 5.00 for a draw, and 1.50 for a Germany win.

The app automatically calculates the bookmaker’s margin. In this case, Bet365’s margin is 4.8%. It also shows the implied probabilities behind the odds. According to these odds, Bet365 estimates that Germany will win approximately 66.7% of the time. To explain value betting in simple terms, I often ask a question when friends want to know how I decide whether a bet has value: “If these teams played 100 times, how many times do you think Germany would win?” If your answer is 70 out of 100 matches, then you have found value. The bookmaker’s odds imply Germany wins about 66.7% of the time, while your own assessment is 70%. Once you answer that question, ValueIQ calculates the expected value of the bet and suggests an appropriate stake using the Kelly Criterion (although for beginners, I generally recommend a simple flat-stake approach). When you're ready, click Log Bet. Every bet is automatically saved and added to your history. From there, you can track your performance, analyze how successful you are at identifying value bets, and monitor your long-term results.

You can also filter your statistics by sport to see where you're performing best and which markets give you the strongest edge.

I just bought a PropProfessor subscription for DFS. What’s the main strategy? Should I be utilizing the slip gen? Or should I be putting together slips with the top +EV in the optimizer? I’m a little confused on the best/most efficient path

Going to post my BettorBoss research every day here for the next month.

These games are all roughly +2 days out, so there’s still time to get on early if anything catches your eye.

Some really useful info below that could give you a nice edge if you’re looking through the card yourself.

As always, bet responsibly and GL if you follow anything.

China - Chinese Super League
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Main edge: Tianjin have cumulative fatigue concerns and are missing winger Shi Yan, which could weaken their attacking options.

China - Chinese Super League
Shenzhen Peng City vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Main edge: Chengdu are missing Felipe and Li Yang, which hits both attacking and defensive quality.

China - Chinese Super League
Henan vs Shanghai Port
Main edge: Henan are missing creative midfielder Bruno Na, which could limit their chance creation.

Iceland - 1. deild, Women
KR Reykjavik vs Tindastoll
Main edge: Tindastoll have lost key players from last season’s top-flight squad, weakening their current level.

Iceland - 1. deild, Women
FHL WFC vs Keflavik
Main edge: FHL’s defensive problems look structural, which could suit a strong Keflavik attack.

International - FIFA World Cup
Uruguay vs Spain
Main edge: Uruguay are missing Ronald Araújo and Giorgian De Arrascaeta, which is a major defensive and creative blow against Spain.

International - FIFA World Cup
Croatia vs Ghana
Main edge: Ghana have off-field disruption around Thomas Partey’s visa situation, plus a managerial change, which could affect team cohesion.

International - FIFA World Cup
Egypt vs Iran
Main edge: Iran have travel and logistical disruption, which could affect preparation and recovery.

International - FIFA World Cup
Panama vs England
Main edge: Panama midfielder Carrasquilla is a doubt with a muscle issue, which could weaken their midfield structure.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Goteborg vs HamKam
Main edge: IFK Goteborg are missing key attacking players, which could hurt offensive cohesion.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Airdrieonians vs Elgin City
Main edge: Airdrieonians have a new head coach and several trialists expected, making the squad setup volatile.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Siegen vs FC Cosmos Koblenz
Main edge: Cosmos Koblenz are missing a high-level goalkeeper, which could weaken their defensive base.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Bremer SV vs Suderelbe
Main edge: Bremer SV have 15 players leaving, creating major squad turnover and early pre-season uncertainty.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Ujpest Budapest vs Uni Cluj
Main edge: Cluj are missing defender Elio Capradossi and midfielder Andrej Fábry, weakening depth and stability.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Hertha Wels vs LASK
Main edge: LASK are likely missing players due to World Cup call-ups, which could narrow the quality gap.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Clyde vs Dunfermline
Main edge: Dunfermline are missing striker Chris Kane, reducing their attacking options.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Kristiansund vs Aalesund
Main edge: Kristiansund have a goalkeeper crisis, with both first-choice keepers injured.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Livingston vs Dundee FC
Main edge: Dundee travel with a light squad and are missing key players, including a first-choice goalkeeper and a midfielder.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
Main edge: Botev Vratsa are experimenting tactically and using young players, raising rotation and performance risk.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Utrecht vs De Graafschap
Main edge: De Graafschap have a new head coach, which adds tactical and selection uncertainty.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Copenhagen vs Mjallby
Main edge: Mjallby have a heavier competitive load, creating rotation and fatigue concerns.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Valerenga vs GAIS
Main edge: GAIS have long-term absences in defence and attack, weakening both ends of the pitch.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Rathenow vs Altglienicke
Main edge: Rathenow are missing key midfielder Salih Aktürk, a big issue for a limited squad.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Ayr vs Glenafton Athletic
Main edge: Glenafton have squad turnover and a managerial change, creating cohesion concerns.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Dordrecht vs Schalke II
Main edge: Dordrecht have disruption from Dirk Kuyt’s sudden departure before pre-season.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
SK Rapid vs FAC Wien
Main edge: SK Rapid are missing several key players through injuries and international duty.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Esbjerg vs Vejle
Main edge: Vejle have multiple ongoing injuries affecting key players.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Memmingen vs Gundelfingen
Main edge: Gundelfingen’s coach has flagged heavy rotation, which could dilute their XI.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Gau-Odernheim vs Mainz II
Main edge: Gau-Odernheim are missing their first-choice centre-back, weakening defensive stability.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Jihlava vs Pribram
Main edge: Pribram are missing a key defender after knee surgery.

International Clubs - Club Friendly Games
Uta Arad vs Dumbravita
Main edge: Dumbravita have 11 confirmed departures, creating major cohesion and quality concerns.

USA - USL W League
Port City vs South Georgia Tormenta FC
Main edge: South Georgia Tormenta have officially withdrawn from the USL W League for 2026, creating a severe operational and availability issue.

USA - USL W League
Richmond Ivy USLW vs Charlottesville Blues FC
Main edge: Charlottesville have recent heavy defeats and a tight schedule, pointing to defensive fragility and fatigue risk.