I own both Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab. Was kinda surprised to learn Firefly’s rockets actually carry more payload than Rocket Lab’s current rockets. Rocket Lab obviously has way more launches and experience so far, but it makes me wonder if Firefly can really compete long term with more established competitors like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab
Following up from yesterday’s discussion, this week’s newsletter is live.
SpaceX S-1 files this week. Every space stock gets repriced against a $2 trillion benchmark. Thoughts on the IPO?
RKLB traded through every analyst target on the Street this week including the most bullish at $150. Every covering analyst is now technically in upgrade territory. Is anyone expecting a pull back on Monday?
The ASTS debate in the comments proved one thing, a revenue miss is not a valid determinant at this stage. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all validated the model the day after earnings. What could happen to shake people’s confidence?
Overview this week is LUNR, specifically a $6.24 billion defence contract that didn’t get the coverage it deserved.
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This week was probably the most eventful in space equities since I started covering the sector. Full breakdown below.
RKLB +34%
Record $200M quarter, up 63% YoY. Four analyst raises in one session. TD Cowen now at $120.
HawkEye 360 (HAWK) IPO
New space stock worth knowing about. RF signals intelligence — detects radio emissions from ships, aircraft and military assets globally. Profitable at IPO, 80% gross margins, $302M backlog. Closed +30% day one.
ASTS
BlueBird 7 fallout ongoing but mid-June Falcon 9 launch confirmed for satellites 8-10. Earnings Monday — most important call in the sector right now.
SpaceX IPO
S-1 expected late May. Every space stock is being repriced around it.
I track 33 space stocks and ETFs — RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL, BKSY, RDW, FLY, HAWK, OKLO, SPCE, KRMN, DXYZ and more, on a free live dashboard with broker targets, launch calendar and a weekly deep dive newsletter.
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