r/GMGstock

Revising the numbers down a fair bit after a more careful review

This is what we know so far

• Mar 16: ThermalXR receives US EPA Approval (competitive non-revenue)
• Mar 23: G Lubricant Paten Accepted for Europe (competitive non-revenue)
• Apr 1: GMG Successful ISO9001 Audit (competitive non-revenue)
• Apr 15: Energy Density of 6 Minute Charging Graphene Aluminium-Ion Battery (R&D Pipeline non-revenue)
• Apr 20: G LUBRICANT: Patent Granted in USA; Allowed in China (competitive non-revenue)
• Apr 22: New Chief Production Growth Officer (governance non-revenue)
• May 11: Two Luxury Towers Contact 600 commercial units (revenue)
• May 12: New Site for Production & Office Expansion (operational non-revenue)
• May 19: THERMAL-XR Distribution deal with Curran International (strategic non-revenue)
• Jun 2: Application for Environmental Approvals to Produce Graphene in USA (strategic non-revenue)
• Jun 17: GMG Delivers bulk shipment of THERMAL-XR® to Nu-Calgon in the USA (revenue)

Partners

Battery Development Partners

• Rio Tinto: Their biggest corporate partner. They signed a Joint Development Agreement to co-develop the G+AI Battery pack for heavy mining equipment and to secure a steady supply of aluminum.
• The University of Queensland (UQ): The academic partner that originally developed the underlying technology for the graphene aluminum-ion battery cells.
• Bosch: Brought in to design and build the automated factory production lines for the battery plants.

Commercial Sales & Distribution Partners

• Curran International: Holds a global distribution deal to exclusively apply Thermal-XR® coatings onto industrial oil, gas, and LNG infrastructure.
• Nu-Calgon: A major US distributor that purchases and stocks bulk orders of Thermal-XR for the North American HVAC market.
• Beijer Ref: A massive global HVAC-R distributor that offers the Thermal-XR coating directly to air conditioning customers in Australia.

Grants and Contributions

There are no new grants and contributions planned or upcoming that I've been able to determine. Everything that was previously announced is already on the balance sheet.

Markets

Thermal-XR Target Markets

• Commercial Buildings: Offices, hotels, and luxury apartment towers.
• AI Data Centers: Massive server warehouses that require heavy cooling systems to prevent overheating.
• Oil & Gas Plants: Industrial liquefied natural gas (LNG) factories.

G Lubricant Target Markets

• Commercial Fleets: Long-haul trucking, freight, and shipping companies that spend millions on diesel fuel.
• Heavy Mining Machinery: Operators running large excavators and stationary generators.
• Everyday Consumers: Automotive drivers buying directly from web portals.

Graphene Aluminium-Ion Battery Target Markets

• Heavy Industrial Vehicles: Mining trucks and construction equipment that need to swap from diesel to clean energy.
• Fast-Charging Commercial Tools: Machinery that requires immediate, 6-minute power top-ups to minimize downtime.

Analysis

Considering all of this and making a basic assumption that revenue conservatively will double each quarter for the next little while, I feel that the original estimate I had needs to be revised down pending more information released by GMG.

	Thermal XR	G Lubricant	G+AI Battery	G&C	Unknown
Q1					$      170.00
Q2	$      350.00				$      350.00
Q3	$      350.00	$     100.00			$      700.00
Q4	$      700.00	$     200.00			$   1,400.00
YE	$  1,400.00	$     300.00	$                    -	$                    -	$  2,620.00
					$  4,320.00

Target Revenue for 2026 should likely be in the $4-4.5M range ongoing not $5-7M.

Since the Q didn't really break down where the revenue came from, my assumption is that it was spread between the other categories indicated.

• The Nu Calgon sale is around $400-425K from previous posts
• The luxury apartment project is likely around $100K
• G+AI doesn't have any significant sales planned for this year beyond testing and R&D.
• There are no additional grants and contributions announced.

Competitive Advantage activities appear to be mostly complete and transitioning into protecting GMG's competitive position as those advantages slowly start to become less strategic over time

Distribution Partners are ramping up so the 2x growth factor should be very conservative considering everyone is coming up to speed on training and marketing preparations

GMG is proactively focused on operational activities (new plants, lower COGS, expanding manufacturing) which implies initial higher costs. However GMG has also had a focus on not over spending based on available revenue sources maintaining an 18 month cash flow.

Competitors

One of the key challenges for GMG is their market positioning compared to other players specific HydroGraph (HG.TO). If you compare balance sheets, HG has a massive premium baked into their stock price based on their partner relationships and the market segments they are trying to sell to.

HG appears to be focused on supply arrangements for production inputs and developing strategic relationships with US Gov, advanced materials and composites, and aerospace industries.

GMG doesn't have the same US Gov connections but is getting noticed by semi-conductors TAM $11B (most of which are produced in the Australasian region with strong ties to Australian companies due to their cost advantages and close geographic location) and industrial (e.g. Rio Tinto) TAM $36B. This notwithstanding the $20B HVAC market alone.

This is in addition to the potential HG $1.5T TAM claims for lubricants, composites, coatings, concrete, and energy storage that GMG is also capable of getting a piece of.

Clearly we are in a more asymmetric business-political environment where the more competitive product isn't guaranteed to come out on top at these types of valuations. However, GMG hasn't built their business model around those relationships and instead has focused on other relationships that are equally as valuable albeit not as lucrative.

My fair market target is down slightly therefore to the $4-6 range by this fall considering that there doesn't seem to be any major headwinds that are going to get in the way of them delivering on their plan and their strategic activities seem to be lining up pretty well for long term success.

My hope is that we knock HG out of the ball park but it seems that is like comparing apples and avocados especially with HG's DOD arrangements and their pending delisting on the Canadian stock exchange / transfer to Nasdaq.