r/GrowthStockInvesting

Cipher Digital (CIFR): Q2 2026 - It's become an AI data-center landlord with ~$11.4B of contracted hyperscaler rent and I think management is proving they can execute

Trades ~$18; my DCF base case is ~$48. The entire gap is execution and in a build-to-suit landlord model, management currently executing (delivering early, financing cheaply) is the best leading indicator that the contracted ramp actually converts to cash.

  1. Cipher delivered its Black Pearl (Amazon, 15-yr) capacity 2 months early with rent commenced, priced its 3rd project bond at 6.0% (lowest yet, ~8x oversubscribed), and optioned a ~900 MW site for ~no capital at risk. Very rare to see players in this space delivering early.

  2. The income statement - it looks ugly (revenue down to $25M, EBITDA negative $30M, $268M GAAP loss) but that's the wind-down: mining is being switched off and HPC rent only started in August. ~$150M of the loss is a non-cash warrant mark. I think this indicates the trough of the valley.

  3. The balance sheet which is a $7.5B machine built on ~$6B of debt. It's mostly matched (non-recourse, fixed-rate, amortizing with the leases), but most of the cash is restricted for construction, equity is thinning, and shares keep grinding (~477M diluted).

  4. Is the pivot tracking? Yes. Portfolio now 5.3 GW / 11 sites; the three signed leases ramp contracted NOI from ~$97M (2026) to ~$894M (2035), averaging ~$793M. Revenue inflects hard in 2027 as HPC overtakes mining.

  5. The Abbott letter. Texas's new audit push delayed the ERCOT Batch Zero decision (near-term negative), but it's asymmetric: culling weaker developers makes a buttoned-up incumbent's already-approved sites more valuable, not less. I see this as bullish and CIFR already positioned where they want to be.

  6. The DCF. Assumptions I'm running: WACC ~9.3%, terminal growth 5%, beta 1.77, mid-70s% terminal EBIT margins (backed by ~89% property-level NOI on triple-net leases), pipeline probability-weighted, and ~$3.6B net cash added (chunky.. a lot is restricted). Output: Bear $34 / Base $48 / Bull $66. Comps land ~$17, right at the market, so the Street is pricing in none of the ramp. Stress-testing I would see: terminal growth 5% to 3%, beta 1.77to 2.5, and haircut the restricted cash.

  7. Risk vs. reward. Bear: negative EBITDA through 2027, $6B debt with completion guarantees, dilution, regulatory timing, tenant concentration. Bull: execution is the moat, the repeatable financing model is proven and improving, rent has started, the pipeline keeps compounding. After this quarter, the burden of proof has shifted toward the skeptics.

Question for the board. Do you think early delivery + cheapest-ever financing is a real leading indicator that de-risks the ramp or am I giving management too much credit too soon? And any assumptions you would challenge?

For those interested, I've written a full deep-dive on this on my substack: https://valentircapital.substack.com/p/cipher-digital-cifr-q2-2026-the-flywheel?r=91pu4&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

u/Tw1nwarrior — 2 days ago

predicting free cash flow. delete if inappropirate for the board please.

First, if  this topic is off topic, please delete it.   I apologize in advance for that.   I believe that picking a company that is selling for less than what it is worth, but also that is growing fast is a good way to invest.   I think free cash flow is the best metric, because it is harder to manipulate, and company’s need cash like a human needs blood.   I value a company  based on it’s free cash flow in 2 – 3 years.  The challenge is Of course  that it is hard to estimate it.   I have a few things I do.   I look at past free cash flow, and decide if the company is still executing it well, and extrapolate it into the future.   I look at ROIC.   A company’s free cash flow should grow at it’s ROIC.   I look at analyst estimates, and for a popular stock, subtract maybe 10%, for a boring stock, maybe subtract 3%.   I wonder how the people here do it and your thoughs on this.  

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u/OutrageousWeather685 — 3 days ago

My Youtube Membership service is now live

Hey all,

I wanted to make a one-time announcement about my premium YouTube Membership. I know this sub-Reddit isn’t meant for self-promotion, but I wanted to be upfront and let you all know directly that the service is now live!

http://youtube.com/@GrowthInvestingMastery/join

Here's what the Membership includes: Weekly portfolio updates to see what I'm holding and why, in-depth earnings coverage to stay on top of company results, new stock ideas as I find them, and dedicated strategy videos to sharpen how you think about growth investing.

The first two Membership videos are live now: a mid-month portfolio update and earnings review, plus a strategy video on lessons from poker for growth investors.

Membership is $49.99/month. Sign up directly through YouTube for the best price — no added fees. (Apple/iOS adds their own App Store fee on top, so browser signup is the better deal)

u/GrowthInvestingWPR — 5 days ago

Bear's portfolio as of Mid-August

https://preview.redd.it/sscg3z1x9jjh1.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa3dc328b2e12551a7cdf50398f3f423faefd23

In the last 3 weeks (mostly the last 2) every company in my portfolio has reported earnings, so much is happening! I thought I'd do a little update. I'm also pretty happy with the bounce up to almost +30% for the year (from ~14% at the end of July) so I'm sure some vain part of me wants to show that off.

NEW POSITIONS 

Astera Labs - Simply had to get back in when they guided for 43% sequential revenue growth next quarter!

Celestica - Just looking into this company and I really like what I am finding.  CLS sells networking equipment, switches, etc.  Their customers are the hyperscalers as well as recently announced OpenAI and many others.  The last 5 quarters YoY revenue has grown 21% -> 28% -> 44% -> 53% -> 62% and they are guiding for 74%!  Margins are tight, but they are consistently profitable, and profits are expanding with revenue. They just raised $3b in a secondary, so the share price fell last week. I started a position on this one.

Bloom Energy - a little try-out in a super fast grower that is benefiting immensely from the DC build out (I know Nebius specifically calls out their partnership with Bloom).

THE HEART OF THE PORTFOLIO

Silicon Motion - I've kept adding in Aug after that incredible earnings in July that the market seemingly ignored.  Kind of wish I'd added more.

Figure Tech - Heck YES.  The Aug 13 report was simply dynamite.  I rarely add to a large position that's up 25%+ within a couple weeks...but I added after that report.

Toast -- was very happy with the quarter they reported Aug 4th.  Trimmed a little, but not much.  I think there's still value here...they still have room to keep improving margins.

Ethos (Ticker: LIFE) - Marvelous quarter on Aug 3, and (like I did with FIGR) I actually added even though it was up!  Then it kept soaring and is up almost 70%+ in August!  I've been trimming, but I'm happy with a solid position size here.

Sofi - Trimmed in early Aug after the price rebounded 10%+.

Reddit - Trimmed in early Aug after the price rebounded 10%+, and trimmed a bunch more yesterday when it jumped after being added to the S&P 500.

Hinge Health - Great report and solid raise to the FY guide, but man, why did they have to go and make an acquisition?  It seems like an ok one...but not closely related to their core business.  It muddies the water for me, so I dialed this one back to mid-sized.  It's also not super cheap anymore since it's up 90%+ ytd.

SMALLER POSITIONS

Liftoff Mobile - The Aug 12 report was kind of underwhelming and delivered with fairly low energy from mgmt IMO.  But this thing is trading at like 8x trailing Ebitda.  I mean, c'mon.

MercadoLibre - Probably will do fine, but just isn't very exciting.

Root - Probably will do fine, but just isn't very exciting.

Sea Limited - Probably will do fine, but just isn't very exciting.

AppLovin - After the not great quarter on Aug 5, I've slashed it and might sell.

Kulicke and Soffa - Didn't like their uncertainty about being able to support a $450m/quarter revenue run rate.

Axon - Up more than 15% at some points during the month, I took some gains.  I'm always comfortable trimming any position that I feel is getting expensive, but Axon is one I'm super comfortable adding to when it dips.

Cohu inc - Not really worth mentioning.  Seems ok, but not growing like the rest.

POSITIONS I SOLD IN AUG

Rubrik - I'd been falling out of love with this one for a while.  I just see too much deceleration.  After the huge bounce back from the March lows, I took this huge spike in early August as a chance to get out.

Lumentum - I've just been on the fence with this one.  Never more than a tiny position.  It seems fine, but a lot is expected, and it's priced up.

Entravision - Just not the explosive growth I was hoping they'd have.  They mentioned Q3 would be sequentially down.

Well, that's a wrap! Hope the second half of August is as good as the first! Though that's asking for a lot!

Bear

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u/Investing_Bear — 5 days ago

Pod With Axon Management

Hey all.

u/Investing_Bear and I just dropped the most recent episode of Shooting The Bull pod where we interviewed Axon Enterprise’s President Josh Isner.

It was another awesome conversation about the company’s growth, culture, and Josh answered many questions posted here.

Bear and I think you’ll really enjoy!

Spotify link: https://open.spotify.com/show/5qH1zzezA4EnHHGibgzJlb

Apple pod: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/shooting-the-bull-with-drowsy-and-bear/id1824732211?i=1000783210939

👊
Drowsy and Bear

u/Drowsy-Investor — 6 days ago

Nvidia: Great hardware and software and financial engineering

I think Mr. Market doesn't understand Nvidia's latest news. He thinks it's yet another form of "circular financing," which it's not. It's Nvidia establishing its GPUs as actual assets that have value and so can be used as collateral for loans, much like United Airlines takes loans to buy 747s.

ICYMI: Nvidia has brokered deals with 6 of the top financial companies: Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR for them to provide a total of $0.5Trillion of financing for Nvidia GPUs and servers.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-partners-with-apollo-blackrock-blackstone-brookfield-goldman-sachs-and-kkr-to-establish-ai-compute-infrastructure-financing-platforms-to-mobilize-over-500-billion-of-third-party-capital

This is NOT NVidia backstopping the financing, this is these companies agreeing that Nvidia's server racks have value and should some AI startup or high-flying neocloud want to get a loan to buy them, these companies will loan them the money, using the Nvidia hardware as collateral in case those companies fail. They're willing to do this because the market for Nvidia servers is so strong that they're confident they'll be able to sell them to get their money back. Like an airplane loan or a car loan.

For those who doubt the long-term viability of GPUs, note the recent CoreWeave earnings had them revealing they just did a contract for Nvidia A100 rental through 2029. That chip is 6 years old right now, and will be 9 years old by the time the contract ends. So much for the old 3-4 year depreciation schedule and all the worry over companies extending those to 5-6 years. If A100s are good for 90 years, what do you think the usable life of Blackwells and Rubins will be?

And there's another layer - this is ONLY for Nvidia GPUs and servers. Part of what these big financial companies are agreeing to is that Nvidia hardware and software are "investable assets." There are two drivers enabling this:

  1. The general purpose nature of Nvidia's offerings. Unlike ASICs (TPUs, Trainiums, Maias, WSEs, etc), Nvidia's GPUs are general purpose and are suited for both training and inference, and a wide body of software runs on them.

  2. CUDA. Part of what enables the general-purpose applicability is CUDA, the software layer that runs only on Nvidia GPUs. But CUDA also enables older chips to perform better than they did when they were new. Benchmarks of Nvidia need to include what version of CUDA they're running since those 6 year old A100s are more than 15% faster today than when they were first sold. OTOH, Google is giving away TPU v4 (circa 2021) cloud access for free.

I don't know if Jensen Huang is going to be able to make all this clear to Wall Street in the upcoming days. I've seen much misunderstanding of it on social media. This is Nvidia showing that their products are far better than custom ASICs many investors seem to be worried about.

u/Smorgasbord3 — 7 days ago

SpaceX now means there are 4 top NeoCloud providers

With Nebius and CoreWeave announcing good results and their stocks going up, I think it's worth pointing out that SpaceX's rental deals with Anthropic and Google mean it has to be considered as a NeoCloud provider itself.

At SpaceX's company meeting, Musk claimed that by as early as next month (Sept), the revenue from AI will be more than from the rest of the company combined.

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/08/61145623/spacex-ai-100-billion-revenue-run-rate

Grok isn't what Musk wants it to be, but renting out GPUs is a way for SpaceX to bring in some revenue and profits while it tries to make Grok more than a second or third class LLM. Remember, Space-X is charging more per GPU-rental-hour than anyone else, yet Anthropic and Google have signed on. Why? Because the compute capacity is available now. This is a big advantage over the other 3 NeoClouds.

SemiAnalysis published a recent article on GPU rental and SpaceX's role:

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/spacex-10gw-in-2027-why-its-real

"Elon needs to build datacenters faster than anyone else. We believe that he can. What gives us this confidence? We’ve written a few times about Elon’s speed, with 122 days to build Colossus 1’s 300MW, six months to build 200MW at Colossus 2, the decision to build an onsite generation plant 1km across the border to avoid permitting, and much more.

There’s been even more displays of speed since then. The power plant in Southaven has expanded from 27 turbines (~495MW) in February 2026, to 69 turbines (1.7GW) in July 2026.

As well as the arrival of “MiniHard,” which upon vertical construction in March 2026, will likely reach 450-500MW in just ~5 months! That doesn't mean Elon builds better than everyone else. He's just applying a different playbook.

Switchgear and large power transformers are sold out for 2 years? Just buy power modules from China, and skip LPTs by delivering medium voltage power from power gen to low voltage transfos, which are much more widely available. Elon’s companies have the world's most talented electrical engineers - no one knows better than them how to manage speed vs efficiency tradeoffs. Most datacenter operators in the world optimize for efficiency and quality - it's the only way to land a 15-20 year take-or-pay hyperscaler datacenter contract. SpaceX will focus on entirely different tradeoffs: it's speed above all. In times of compute constraints and extremely high AI token margins, a 500mw cluster available in three months, with 90-day cancellation policy, is one of the most scarce and valuable asset in the world. All typical “quality” metrics don't matter. Proof? Google, the most vertically integrated infra company in the world, somehow ended up signing with SpaceX.

Gas turbines are 5yr+ backlogged? GEV’s are, but there are plenty of other options - our Energy Model 30+ manufacturers of gas gen equipment that have secured large scale orders to serve datacenters. There is plenty of available capacity if you look hard enough and you're open to working with new suppliers. Secondary market volumes for turbines is surging - for example, all the turbines initially scheduled to go to Oracle’s New Mexico site are on the market. Secondary market prices are very high, but Elon can pay.

Labor is the ultimate constraint? Just parallelize as much as possible, reduce the commissioning process, and preassemble as much as possible. Reports out Colossus 2’s peak daily labor at ~3k construction workers, which as about ex lower than other gigawatt-scale datacenters under construction. Elon has a long history of accomplishments with less staff than industry standard - just look at Tesla and SpaceX’s history."

---

What does this mean for the legacy NeoCloud providers? The good news for them is that demand for GPU hours is still through the roof, so everyone will sell whatever they can put together. But, SpaceX is going to get a lot of attention and business due to timing.

This also reinforces for me that long-term the NeoCloud business will suck. Despite what Nebius and CoreWeave are saying, the big deals don't include software infrastructure; the big model providers and hyperscalers want raw GPU access. Sure, there will be smaller startups, including some AI application companies, that may want to have access to some software infrastructure so they don't have to hire that expertise internally, but that's a tiny portion of the business today, and I think unlikely to grow to be significant.

I'll be taking advantage of this pop in the NeoClouds to unload my positions. There's probably still some money to be made, but I think there are greener fields, especially in the medium/long term, to plough.

u/Smorgasbord3 — 7 days ago

MELI Q2 2026: fastest growth in four years (+50%), stock fell 7% though? Worked through the margin trough, the credit book, and some DCF thoughts

MELI reported Aug 5 and I wanted to bring everyone's attention to some highlights. Q2 revenue $10.2bn, +50% YoY (+43% FX-neutral), first $10bn quarter ever. GMV +44%, TPV +56%, buyers +26%. And the stock dropped ~7%, because operating margin came in at 6.7% - roughly half of a year ago.

Looks like the margin compression is deliberate. PIX discounts and take-rate cuts in Brazil, cheaper shipping, credit card issuance up 60%+, logistics build-out. Opex actually fell 2.6pts as a share of revenue this quarter - they generated leverage and immediately re-spent it. Engagement data management reported implies its working - "ecosystemic" users (marketplace + fintech) grew 37% and generate contribution profit that's a multiple of the sum of single-product users. 'Flywheel' approach in action.

The real debate I'm seeing is with the credit book: $16.4bn, +75% YoY. Short-term NPLs (15-90 days) are near record lows at 7.0%, but the 90+ bucket went from 16.8% to 18.7% of the book in six months, with late-stage dollars growing 46% vs book growth of 31%. Management's explanation (duration mix, a few weak vintages) is plausible, but it's the number that decides whether this thesis works.

I ran my DCF on it: 13.6% WACC (revenue-weighted LatAm country risk, not a US discount rate), margins recovering to 12% by 2029, revenue to $82.6bn (~consensus), explicit haircut for the loan book. At my WACC, the current price implies a ~16–17x exit EBIT multiple. The market is basically pricing something between my base and bear.

Assumptions:

Bear - $1,314. The credit cycle turns: the 90+ bucket keeps deteriorating, provisions overwhelm the lending margin, growth investment gets curtailed into the downturn, and the market pays 12x trough-credibility EBIT at a 15% discount rate. About 31% below the current price. This is the scenario that permanently impairs capital.

Base - $2,323. Revenue compounds to $82.6bn by 2029, margins recover to 12% as the reinvestment dial turns, credit stays healthy, and the stock exits at 20x EBIT. About 20% above the current price.

Bull - $4,002. The engagement flywheel does what management says it’s doing: margins recover faster, the card cohorts mature into a structurally profitable book, and the market keeps paying 30x for a company still compounding at 20%+. Roughly double the current price.

I did a full write up of my thoughts over on my Substack for those interested: https://valentircapital.substack.com/p/watchlist-meli-mercadolibres-10bn?r=91pu4&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

I'm curious what others think here: is 6.7% a trough by design, or does the margin harvest keep receding? This one is on my watchlist and trying to figure out if I am interpreting this correctly - if so could be a real opportunity here.

u/Tw1nwarrior — 8 days ago

Graydrake's Portfolio thru July with 8/9 Update

Hey

I follow Saul's rules for ticker metrics, but do not spend his recommended time in quarterly reports and conference calls. Instead, I have developed a personal Database with ratings of company metrics' I repopulate the status each weekend. I started trialing in 2024 and funded an account just of hypergrowth for 25. The attachment shows my portfolio , ratings and performance. One major deviation from Saul, I am heavily biased by the ticker position on the Linear Regression channel for entries and typically begin trimming at 75% LRC resistance - and trim heavily at 100% resistance.

The attachments are portions of my database and are poor quality. I hope they improve on the RDDT site.

I do not spend much time in RDDT, so I may not be prompt to respond, Sorry.

Deleted and reposted to get rid of the shadow, but it returned.

Gray

https://preview.redd.it/fj7opjacggih1.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=eae397d184684af45e69350c00f4db8e1f056e03

GRAYDRAKE PORTOLIO
MONTH END
8/9/2026 GRAYDRAKE RATINGS STAUS
STOCKS PORTFOLIO    WT RISK              VALUE  RATING GROWTH RATING DATBASE RATING DEC 25
JAN -3.4%
FEB -3.3%
MAR -6.4%
APR 11.5%
MAY 43.2%
JUN 43.3%
100% 460 JUL
MU 3.9% 54 205 321 AUG
NVDA 7.1% 35 200 292 SEP
NBIS 6.4% 6 195 265 OCT
IREN 6.6% 32 145 241 NOV
ALAB 6.0% 15 150 230 DEC
CRWV 5.5% 26 160 211
ASTS 5.8% 11 170 206
AVGO 5.1% 25 155 205
LITE 7.1% -1 180 204
ONDS 3.7% -19 190 196
PDYN 4.8% 6 155 186
HROW 4.0% 29 100 154
RCAT 3.7% -23 145 147
CLS 3.8% 34 85 144
AVAV 3.7% 13 80 118
ALVO 3.6% -9 75 91
DEFENSIVE 10.1% 0 0 0
8/9 PORTFOLIO STATUS
ANNUAL ROI 33.4%
MONTHLY ROI 11.4%
ANNUALIZED 56.4%
BEST YTD 6/2 46.6%
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u/Graydrake1 — 10 days ago

If you could ask Axon mgmt a question, what would it be?

Axon reported Q2 yesterday and I won't go through all the numbers, but the headline for me was that they raised the FY revenue guide from +32% to +34% at the top end.

That means they will accelerate again in 2026, after growing 31% in 2023, 33% in 2024, and 33% again in 2025!

So if you like 30%+ revenue growth over a long period of time, you might be an Axon shareholder. If you are, what questions do you have for them? Leave them in the comments, or here on X.

reddit.com
u/Investing_Bear — 14 days ago

China's Use of Renewable + Batteries for AI

A number of days ago I posted that I had exited my Bloom Energy (BE) position due to the fact that I felt that their future was limited. I based my hypothesis on recent developments in China which eliminated the need for fuel based on-site energy generation.

My observations were based on a YouTube video. Admittedly, YouTube videos are not always the best source of information. The video documented a Chinese AI data center that was 100% powered by renewables plus CATL batteries. This observation has been met with some skepticism. I've done some additional research on the subject. Following is a synopsis of what I found based on a Perplexity query. To be honest, there's no way of knowing at this time whether or not this truly bodes ill for BE or if so, when the chickens come home to roost. Currently, the US administration has taken a very hostile stance against renewables. In other words, Bloom, just like all the AI picks & shovels may still have a good run before this becomes a threat.

>Good news — the claim is substantially true, though the YouTube video likely conflated several related developments into one story. Here's the full picture:

>China's Renewable-Powered AI Data Centers Are Real

>Envision Group just completed (August 6, 2026) the Galaxy Campus in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia — an AI data center drawing 80% of its power from nearby wind farms via dedicated transmission lines. The initial 120 MW phase is operational, with plans to scale to 2 GW. Critically, it uses battery storage as backup instead of diesel generators — a major departure from traditional data center design (China Daily, Energy Connects/Bloomberg).energyconnects+1

>Envision also operates what it calls the world's first 100% green-power direct-supply AIDC in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, partnered with Tencent, reducing energy costs by over 40% and cutting annual carbon emissions by ~180,000 tons (Seetao, Newswire).seetaoe+1

>This aligns with a Chinese regulation requiring all new data centers to source 80% of power from renewables.weforum

>CATL's Sodium-Ion Batteries for Data Centers

>CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology) has indeed developed sodium-ion batteries specifically designed for AI data center energy storage. Key facts:

>At the ESIE 2026 expo in Beijing (April 2026), CATL debuted its first dedicated sodium-ion cell for grid-scale storage, explicitly positioning AIDC as a key application scenario (Energy Storage News, ESS News)energy-storage+1

>Specs: 300+ Ah capacity, 97% efficiency, 15,000+ charge cycles, operating range -40°C to 70°C with no thermal runaway in safety tests

>CATL committed $690 million to build 40 GWh of annual sodium-ion capacityad-hoc-news

>In June 2026, CATL launched the TENER Sodium storage system, with first deliveries in China starting September 2026 and 1 GWh of shipments expected by year-end (Bloomberg, The Edge Malaysia)bloomberg+1

>CATL is investing up to $942 million for a 38.1% stake in data center operator VNET Group, and its sodium-ion technology will be paired with energy storage systems installed with partners like SenseTime to stabilize power during fluctuating computing loadsad-hoc-news

>CATL's Chairman Robin Zeng explained the vision at Summer Davos 2026: renewable energy + battery storage solves the "every hour you need constant power" problem for data centers. He said CATL can now produce sodium batteries at scale for energy storage, eliminating lithium dependence, and expects to reach 100+ GWh annually within 3-5 years — enough to "support all data centers worldwide" (World Economic Forum, YouTube - No Power, No AI).youtubeweforum

>The Important Nuance

>The video likely merged two separate but related stories:

>Operational today: China has AI data centers running on 100% renewable energy (Envision's projects in Inner Mongolia), with battery storage replacing diesel backup

>Commercial rollout in 2026: CATL's sodium-ion batteries designed for AIDC energy storage are entering commercial deployment this year, but there is no confirmed report of a specific operational data center already running on CATL sodium-ion batteries as of now

>Additionally, Envision launched its own sodium-ion storage cell (180Ah, 20,000+ cycles) in March 2026, separate from CATL's — so the operational green-power data centers may eventually use Envision's own sodium cells rather than CATL's.linkedin

>The broader trend is undeniable and remarkable: in the first two months of 2026 alone, over 40% of all new energy storage installations in China went to AI computing centers — making it the single largest application for energy storage in the country.

u/Physical_Engineer_22 — 13 days ago

mclaude

Salut à tous, je suis mclaude retraité depuis près de 15 ans. Je suis le forum de Saul depuis de nombreuses années et je visionne les vidéo sur YouTube de WPR. J’investis encore un peu dans des actions de croissance et j’apprécie vraiment tous les conseils, constants que vous partagez tous les deux avec la communauté. Heureux de retrouver tous les membres du forum de Saul ici.

reddit.com
u/Elegant-Singer7760 — 12 days ago

YvesSaintPige's July 2026 Portfolio Review

July 2026 Portfolio Review

First negative month since February 2026 and the worst since March 2025 (down 19.5%) after four straight up months. This was the first full month with a reconstructed portfolio centered around the ongoing AI buildout with companies like $MU, $NVDA, $NBIS. I bought more $NBIS on dips, a little more $MU, while trimming the rest of my positions a tiny bit.

There were multiple sharp legs down throughout the month; at least once per week where my portfolio fell by 5% or more. One big 19% up day at the end of the month saved me from an even worse looking loss. Peak to trough this month I was down 25%. I continued dipping into margin during this sell off, while also making a fairly large contribution due to a cash windfall, so my cost basis increased a decent bit in July.

Nominal is pure % change, Real takes into account contributions made.

Monthly Gain: Down 15.9% Nominal // Down 20.7% Real

Yearly Gain: Up 39.0% Nominal // Up 16.4% Real

All Time Gain: Up 44.9%

$NBIS // Down 17.4% // 45.3% Allocation

Nebius had a very eventful month. Sentiment was very fearful around the company in July. Starting on 7/1 when Meta announced that they plan to launch a cloud compute business to sell excess AI capacity and model access. This move would make them a direct competitor of Nebius, while concurrently being a customer of Nebius. The statement caused a 17% single-day drop in stock price. Many interpret this as a sign that supply will overtake demand faster than the current timeline suggests, leading to the commodification and subsequent drop in margin and pricing leverage for these companies who provide this service. There are two main reasons, why I am not concerned right now.

  1. It will take time for Meta to join the buildout race. Right now this business line is not set up, they do not have customers, and they have some catching up to do.

  2. I am interpreting this business move by Meta as a sign that compute is a lucrative business and that they want a piece of it. They see the potential and are trying to get a slice. It is confirmation that this sector is the future. Maybe I'm seeing it with rose-colored glasses, maybe not.

Then on 7/14, after two weeks of ruminating with the Meta fears, Nebius announced a $1B deal with Reflection AI for computing power. The next day, 7/15 they alleviated some funding concerns by going into detail about their "asset-light" infrastructure partner model. Partners put up the capital and run the data centers while Nebius supplies the design, software stack, and sales channel in exchange for revenue, licensing fees and commissions.

On 7/17, they also announced a $775M senior secured debt facility, a loan backed by the GPUs themselves and the guaranteed payments from one investment-grade customer, priced cheaply at SOFR+250, with more lenders wanting in than there was room for, and covering the full cost of the equipment it paid for, which is a small piece of evidence that can be used as a blueprint to close the funding gap on the remaining $40B+ of contracted revenue without dilution through the issuing of more equity. In this same release, there were confirmations that the Microsoft contract delivery is on track.

On 7/20, Nvidia's investment percentage in Nebius was updated and resurfaced. We knew they held 8.3% of shares back in March. As of July, that number is now 9.3%. On 7/30, Nebius published it's 2025 Sustainability Report, which had some very interesting nuggets about their higher than average power efficiency (1.25 vs 154 PUE), better water efficiency (0.018 vs 0.47 L/kWh), the fact that they have seven active sites (for future YoY comparison), and overall emissions increases from the data centers themselves (up 32x (!) from 2,036 --> 65,001 tCO2e YoY). Overall great with the efficiency benchmarks, but the emissions is a concern and they will likely have to address that as some US states, like NY, are passing data center moratoriums.

Nebius makes up almost half my portfolio now. The future projected earnings combined with this leadership team and potential for AI as a whole are very exciting and the reasons why it is my largest position by such a magnitude. Earnings is on 8/12 and will be the biggest driver in how my August ends up.

$MU // Down 19.2% // 18.1% Allocation

Micron had a quiet month as the dust settled after earnings in June. No corporate announcements. They got caught up in the Meta story and fell in tandem with other AI stocks.

I am still of the opinion that memory is no longer cyclical. Or at least that the cycle has elevated in scale and need to the point that it will not matter for the foreseeable future. On 7/7, Samsung and SK Hynix announced $2T in new capacity to address the scarcity. This would usually be the next leg in the cycle where supply arrives and prices collapse. The key caveat to note though appeared in SK Hynix's and Samsung's earnings calls on 7/29 and 7/30 respectively, when they dismissed oversupply concerns and explained their capacity expansion is "based on demand visibility" and warned that shortages may persist through 2028. Samsung noted, "almost all customers are requesting multi-year supply contracts." All put together, this indicates they are only expanding as customers commit and that they want most of their output locked into multi-year contracts with price floors before capacity exists. Micron was the first company to structure their deals this way and now the rest of the industry is following the same roadmap.

On 7/30, Apple had their earnings call and compared memory pricing to a "hundred-year flood," saying they would pay significantly more on memory in this upcoming quarter than the previous quarter and that prices are expected to keep rising after that. Similar note from Amazon's earnings call where they raised 2026 capex from $200B to $220B and directly attributed that to memory costs. Noted they will not have enough capacity to meet 2026 demand, expects the same for 2027, and called 2028 demand "striking." These are the customers saying this, not the suppliers like SK Hynix and Samsung.

Even at the second biggest in my portfolio, I still want to add to my Micron position. Just like Nebius, the AI buildout is here, and I want a large chunk of it.

$NVDA // Up 1.9% // 12.4% Allocation

Nvidia had a pretty quiet month and the stock price has been quite muted recently as well. On 7/7, they reaffirmed the schedule for their Kyber NVL144 rack-scale system, refuting reports that it would slip to 2028. On 7/15, Jensen Huang spoke about Rubin hardware, saying it was already in production and headed towards "giant" volumes. Rubin is important as it will drive revenue and bridge us into the future of physical AI/robotics. Then the next day, while in Tokyo, Nvidia announced it is working with Noetra Corp., to build a Vera Rubin AI factory in Japan containing 12,750 Vera CPUs, 27,500 Rubin GPUs, and delivering 140 MW of capacity. On 7/27, Nvidia announced a long-term partnership and investment with/in Safe Superintelligence. Nvidia will give them Vera Rubin access and increased compute to advance the research projects SSI is working on.

Comfortable with my position size and consider it a steady anchor of the portfolio. Earnings is on 8/26.

$RDDT // Down 28.3% // 11.2% Allocation

Reddit was the only company of mine that reported earnings in July. That report on 7/30 was the main driver of price action this month. Revenue came in at $802.9M (61% YoY) beating guidance by 11.8%, the eighth (!) consecutive quarter of 60%+ growth. They guided Q3 to $865M (48% YoY) and with a similar percentage beat would be just around 60% growth again next quarter.

The main issue people had with earnings and the reason the stock declined after was in their US (Daily Active Users per quarter) DAUq metric. It actually fell from 53.5M to 53.2M (0.6% QoQ). Global DAUq was 130.3M (up 18%) and WAUq was 514.6M (up 24%) so they are still growing globally and some of those daily users who dropped off are still checking weekly. The problem comes from the value derived from users in the US vs abroad. US users are much more valuable (Average Revenue per User [ARPU] at $11.85) and is up 51% due to successful execution of revenue expansion levers with existing customers, but that is the exact cohort decreasing in size. Global ARPU is $6.18. (up 36%) and International ARPU is $2.26 (up 31%) for comparison. So essentially, Reddit is successfully exercising their ability to gain revenue per user, but having more trouble growing that user base. It means revenue monetization can certainly continue, but a stagnant US DAUq figure will lead to the party ending sooner rather than later.

Additionally, there was a WSJ report earlier in the month on 7/22 that Reddit had internally discussed ending Google's ability to use its content for AI training as the $60M per year deal nears expiration. The stock dropped on this story, but unlike the DAUq metrics, I view this as a positive. I think it speaks to the strength of Reddit's hand when it comes to their positioning and ownership of the training data. They wouldn't hold out like this unless they think they can negotiate better terms. I believe that they can leverage their data in exchange for much much more money. Whether that is 4x, 10x or even 30x the current rate they're charging, I expect this to be a massive driver of growth at some point. As of now that contract is only worth 1.4% of expected 2026 revenue. Lot's of room to grow despite no new deal announced during earnings. Management also noted that "search referrals were choppy and traffic was volatile." And that visibility into referral traffic remains low.

On 7/30, a federal judge denied motions to dismiss for a lawsuit Reddit is claiming against Perplexity AI for bypassing technical safeguards to harvest community content. This enforces the argument that Reddit has a credible legal mechanism to force AI companies into paying licensing fees versus being free. Strengthening their hand against Google.

Overall the business quality and metrics that I deem most important continued on their stellar trajectory. The DAUq x ARPU = Revenue relationship is worth watching to see how it develops. I would normally want to hold tight, no buys or sells until there is more clarity in this situation. I might even think about trimming if the position was oversized, but honestly if price action goes south, I would be more inclined to buy because actual business metrics are very healthy compared to the narrative/story about the future.

$NET // Up 13.1% // 8.6% Allocation

Cloudflare had a few announcements this month. On 7/1 they announced a change in Pay Per Crawl which will now be Pay Per Use. AI crawlers will now be blocked by default on any page carrying ads starting in September. Publishers will now be paid when AI actually uses their content in an answer rather than each time a bot fetches a page. This change was spurred by the fact that bots have now officially surpassed human traffic a year earlier than expected. In June 2026 50.6% of AI bot traffic on Cloudflare's network was training bots, 10.7% were search bots.

Cloudflare is seemingly positioning themselves as the "toll booth" between AI companies and the rest of the internet. It's one of numerous examples of Cloudflare innovating their platform rapidly to invent an entirely new line of business based on current trends. We don't know what the business metrics here are, but after the product goes live on 9/15 we will start to see it emerge.

On 7/13 Precursor, a continuous behavioral validation checker to manage bots inside browsers, went live. The difference here is that rather than a Captcha, which is checked once at the door then never again, Precursor is continuously evaluating behavior the entire time.

Earnings is on 8/6. While I would love to add more, the valuation is relatively stretched compared to NTM growth projections, so I would rather wait for a pullback. I am comfortable with Cloudflare being anywhere from 8-10% of my total portfolio. A solid foundational building block of my portfolio which I am happy to own.

$ALAB // Down 28.1% // 6.9% Allocation

Astera Labs came down to earth a little bit after a few months of crazy valuation. My trims were timely this time and I reduced before most of the damage by selling a little in June.

Pretty quiet on the announcement side of things. On 7/21 they announced the industry's first OCP-Standard Footprint compatible 3.2T Smart Retimers and Smart Redrivers, 16-lane devices supporting 200G-per-lane Ethernet, UALink and ESUN, built on the OCP Signal Conditioner Standard Footprint so customers can "Smart Swap" between a retimer and a redriver without redesigning the board. I've said before that much of what this means in a technical sense goes over my head. That remains the case lol. It received a public endorsement from AMD's Robert Hormuth for what it's worth.

Pushing their Taurus product into 200G Ethernet, UALink and ESUN adds another protocol, and therefore another socket per rack, to a content-per-accelerator figure that has already climbed from $50-100 at founding to over $1,000 today. The OCP standard footprint commoditizes the physical socket, Astera shifts the point of differentiation to the COSMOS software layer it controls, and the AMD endorsement shows the standard has buy-in beyond Nvidia platforms.

Just like with memory and compute, demand isn't going anywhere. The more racks that get built, the more pie for Astera Labs. Not to mention the second order revenue effects that happen if the price PER rack also increases. If there is an opportunity to buy at a better valuation, I could see myself increasing this position to 8-10% of the portfolio. Earnings on 8/4.

$CRWD // Down 1.2% // 6.7% Allocation

Crowdstrike started the month of with a 4:1 stock split. Apart from that, the company didn't do too much this month. Named a new Chief Product Officer, former Splunk, on 7/15. Then on 7/21 there was an OpenAI agent incident at the company Hugging Face. There was a breach and closed AI tools reportedly failed to recognize attackers from defenders and blocked forensic analysis. It's the first high-profile publicly documented case of an AI agent acting as an attacker. It speaks to the future (and current) high demand for cybersecurity in the new world of AI.

Similar to Cloudflare, there is a premium valuation that has always been attached to this company. I am fine with Crowdstrike being anywhere from 5-8% of my portfolio. Meaning I could trim slightly next month or even add, depending on what my gut tells me. Earnings on 8/26.

$SNOW // Up 12.5% // 3.9% Allocation

Snowflake had a quiet month. On 7/15, they announced a CEO compensation package based on performance. If Snowflake's market value doubles Ramaswamy can get $448M in equity. Not the biggest piece of news, but shows you what management thinks is possible.

Then in mid-July Databricks, a private competitor who is looking to IPO soonish, raised $3B at $188B valuation on a $1.5B annual run rate on AI-workload demand. The bull read is that this validates the sector as a whole, the bear read is that Databricks is winning within the sector. Snowflake is trading at 13x EV, while this would put Databricks at 17x FY28.

On 7/28, Cortex AI Gateway launched at Black Hat, a control layer for governing and securing enterprise AI agents. This agent governance move is Snowflake trying to extract and provide value from where the agents are being authorized rather than just where the data sits.

Overall I still really like the consumption-based data business that Snowflake has grown into since I first owned it more than a half decade ago. They are durable and well positioned. Earnings on 8/26.

Macro

July was driven primarily by a rotation out of AI, evidenced by multiple violent moves downward for my portfolio. Semiconductors lost over $1T during the late July selloff. But I do not think this changes anything about the ongoing AI revolution. I actually think it was organized by the hedge funds/powers-that-be so that institutions could get lower entry into some of these names by shaking out fearful retail investors who sell.

The Iran War continues on and off, on and off. More chaos but little to do with my stocks. Inflation data came in pretty decent with a 0.4% decline in June CPI. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments indicated that interest rate changes, in either direction, are not off the table. For now, no change there. Steady 4.1% unemployment.

My biggest concern with the overall economy continues to be consumer weakness and liquidity as a whole. People are still struggling to pay bills/expenses, homeownership is unattainable for an accelerating number of people, and wealth continues to concentrate at the top where the rich accumulate and hoard assets from everybody else. The richest among us want you to own nothing and pay a subscription for everything... and right now it's working in their favor. On the liquidity front, I can't help but wonder how much "ammo" these large institutions have to push the market higher. Probably just something I don't understand yet about the market, but I'm curious at what point could it just "run out?"

Regardless, despite the rough month for my portfolio, the macro environment held very stable. Looking forward to all the earnings reports coming in August!

Final Portfolio:

$NBIS 45.3% 📉

$MU 18.1% 📉

$NVDA 12.4%

$RDDT 11.2% 📉

$NET 8.6% 📈

$ALAB 6.9% 📉

$CRWD 6.7%

$SNOW 3.9% 📈

reddit.com
u/YvesSaintPige — 13 days ago
▲ 9 r/GrowthStockInvesting+2 crossposts

Should You Buy Bloom Energy?

Wrote a new article: Should You Buy Bloom Energy $BE ?

Bullish:

• Q2 revenue $1.065B (+165%)

• Gross margin already above 33%

• Powering $NBIS data centers

Risks:

• Stack life still an open question

• Scandium supply concerns

• Valuation leaves little room for error

burakfinance.substack.com
u/Suspicious_Parfait36 — 13 days ago

Tidbit: World's top AI Scientist leaves Google; won't be using TPUs

You've probably seen the headlines where 4 top AI researchers have left Google. They include Jeff Dean , Google's chief scientist and one of its most consequential technical leaders, who is leaving the company to become chief executive of Discovery Loop. He is joined by longtime collaborator Sanjay Ghemawat , as well as Quoc Le and Oriol Vinyals. Inventors of Transformers and other technology that led to the AI world we know today.

All sorts of comments are being made around how this affects Google, what it means for its Gemini product, its AP Capex, etc. But, what I found interesting as a tidbit is that despite being co-creators of Google's TPU silicon, Dean made the announcement that the new company won't be using TPUs.
https://radical.vc/our-investment-in-discovery-loop

https://dealroom.co/news/143272-googles-top-ai-minds-exit-to-build-discovery-loop-with-alphabets-backing/#:\~:text=Dean%20also%20noted%20that%20Google's,on%20Google's%20TPU%2Dbased%20systems.

It'll be interesting see where they land, compute-wise. Musk has already thrown his support behind Nvidia, and I'm laying odds Discovery Loop will do the same. ASICs like TPUs are good for specific things, but this is a new frontier and they'll want the best performing flexible silicon, which is Nvidia's GPUs.

u/Smorgasbord3 — 12 days ago

Symba's July Portfolio Review

Here my second monthly portfolio update.

I continued my two strategies (Growth investing and Earnings daily play) with increased focus on number 1 due to the high volatility of the market. Still surprised by the reactions on earnings that have a beat history and increasing fundamentals delivering more than expected.

On the psycho side, June and July were very tough months with a lot of learnings and reminders. A reminder of psych basics even if a system and rules are written in place. I need to review them more often, habits are the way.

Doubling down the portfolio near the high in June impacted my performance and made me make mistakes that hurt it further. My habit when a stock is hurt is to add if there is no change on the thesis. I made some costly mistakes buying dips too early at -5%, -10%, being too confident after the April and May run (like IREN), instead of waiting for -15%. Lesson learned.

I also decided to stop earnings play on growth stocks with high confidence. I found myself victim of psychological bias and made costly mistakes when stocks go down first like CRDO or MU.

For CRDO, instead of piling up at $193 during earnings, I was selling because of the netliq increase (25%) and the lack of confidence being tied too much on one stock, giving back before the rally.

July was a lot of trimming from performing stocks (RDDT, PTRN, HNGE, LQDA) to add to hurt ones (not IREN as explained below).

I added new stocks: LQDA, BE, VIAV, COHU and HNGE

I trimmed IREN, RDDT, PTRN, APP

I sold DAVE, DSP, CIFR

https://preview.redd.it/h54791yy5rhh1.png?width=361&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1173b41764d08f825a24e8fc49b624c7f34089

I currently have 18 tickers, still too many and would like to reduce to 14 names. I haven't managed to remove the FOMO and watchlist habit yet, even though I think it's harder psychologically during downturns to hold too many names. I can't capture every opportunity and in fact lose many trying to.

Portfolio concentration is

Portfolio Concentration
Tier 1 50%
Tier 2 44%
Tier 3 6%

Due to high market variance on AI names and the still unwinding Software names, I was looking to diversify into a tailwind sector. Very happy to have found LQDA and HNGE (thanks Bear for saying it out loud, it helped me start a position faster before the continuing increase) and still looking for more promising names. Today portfolio is 65% AI thesis, 6% Pharma and 29% Software. Target for August and September will be to cap AI thesis at 50%.

ALAB: I made a mistake selling my entire position around $350 based on valuation concern. It finally worked out with the July fall rebuilding a position.

LQDA: did a full post LQDA reddit. Good clue they'll crush earnings next week based on UTHR remarks on their earnings missing guidance due to competition, and the panic move doubling the sales team hoping to keep up. Very rare to have a pharma company being profitable with this growth rate at this stage. Will become a Tier 2 if they crush their earnings again.

IREN: Very confused about IREN. Promising name where I loaded up at the start of June because it hadn't rallied like NBIS, before a series of bad communications and mistakes in June reduced my confidence, making me cut from 14% netliq to 8% despite a -34% loss instead of piling up as usual with my strategy.

The ARR increase communication helped me hold a line that I want to reduce to 6% netliq. Still trying to make sense of the future success of Necloud despite their shady approach.

LITE: Very promising name. The stock's resilience during July and revisiting the last transcript made me very convinced on the remaining upside potential. Convinced that connectivity in datacenters tied to power will be the main bottleneck.

SIMO: Increased my position during the pullback. Made a mistake keeping it in Tier 3 confidence too long (thanks again WPR for the discovery). Very pleased to learn they're starting to evaluate robotics applications during the last earnings.

PTRN: Still medium confidence. Managed to trim during the rally at the top to buy back at the pullback end of July. A reminder of the importance of trimming winning stocks.

RDDT: Still medium confidence. Still confident the stock will rally once they finalize their AI deals. The slowing growth in US users doesn't worry me for now.

NBIS: Started a Tier 3 position as it seems to be the story stock backed with a great sales motion for the neocloud business. Due to the uncertainty on the neocloud business, waiting for Q4 to increase confidence.

VIAV: Added but will trim back after earnings. Good performance but LITE seems more promising and more resilient to me.

Would love to get your additional thoughts on three open questions:

  • Found myself with 5 earnings on the same night yesterday, what is your method in these cases? Mine was catastrophic.
  • General thoughts on memory plays like MU, SKHY and SNDK. Will their stocks follow a path like NVDA or have they already topped even with strong growth, because the market expects them to fall in less than 24 months?
  • Daily performance was -10% on 07/29/26 and +16% on 07/30/26. Still not sure how to process that kind of volatility?
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u/symbaeu — 14 days ago