r/HodlyCrypto

I ran a test comparing Lump Sum vs DCA for Bitcoin and Ethereum, using price data from Jan 1, 2020 to May 16, 2026.

(Full test result in second image)

Strategies tested:

• LS = invest all capital immediately
• DCA(1) = split investment over yearly intervals
• DCA(6) = split investment over 6 periods per year
• DCA(12) = monthly DCA

How to read the table:

• Mean Terminal = average final portfolio value. Higher is better.
• Std Terminal = how spread out the final outcomes are. Higher means more uncertainty around the result.
• Sharpe = return per unit of volatility. Higher is better.
• Avg Max DD = average maximum drawdown. Lower is better.
• Avg Days Below Initial = average percent of time the strategy stayed below the starting capital. Lower is better.
• Avg Max Days Below Initial = average longest stretch spent below starting capital. Lower is better.
• Avg Days to Breakeven = average time needed to recover back to starting capital after falling below it. Lower is better.
• Worst 10% Terminal Avg = average final result from the worst 10% of starting periods. Higher is better.
• CVaR95 Loss = average loss in the worst 5% of outcomes. Lower is better.

Simplified result:

• LS wins big on return for both BTC and ETH 
• LS generally fails on remaining metrics, except for Avg Days Below Initial
• More frequent DCA is not always automatically better.

"Do we need an accumulation strategy that improves long-run survivability without giving up too much return?"

Deeper analysis coming…