r/IndiaOptionsSelling

Created some hedge fund level market analytics tool based on Markov chain analysis. This is something used by the top of the top hedge funds and wanted to share to give retailers some edge! 🚀

This basically states the next phase (7 day) of NIFTY to be a systematic long with p(bull) = 60% and p(bear) = 9%
Giving an edge to bulls by 51%.

This is based on 15+ years of data and identifying a state of everyday price action.
How would you change your option strategy
Basis this?
When market goes down, buy call? Sell put? 🤔

Just wanted to share a different pov to normal range or price level analysis. I truly believe the usual technicals have been rigged and we need to find
Better edges!

Lemme know if you’d like access? Not planning to share with all. Probably the ones who trade with capital. Real capital 💵

Ask me anything. Happy to answer and I would love to know whether this strategy is good or not. Because I'm new to Algo.

Sharing my option selling performance from 29 May to 30 June.

Capital: ₹18 lakh
Net Profit: ₹1.72 lakh
Return: ~9.6%

I’ve been working on a systematic option selling approach focused on risk management and adjustments.

Would be great to connect with other traders who are seriously interested in option selling, and want to grow together. Feel free to DM.

Disclaimer: For educational and discussion purposes only. This is not a investment advice.

Today's Option Selling, Thanks for Yesterday's

Love & Likes

Within 10mins Gifty moved 100 points. Any news?

Used to sell options when the margin requirements were low, switched the option buying later. I only trade Nifty these days. I only day trade, usually 2L is what I use, sometimes 2.5 when the Vix was high and options were expensive

What do you think, should I hold it till Monday or sell it today?

From losing 40k to just reversing the sign and becoming profitable 🥲💀

Just sold the CE I wanted to buy, and let’s go recovered all the loss in one month.

What to do??

day1

this trade I took by understanding the overall sentiment of sensex being bullish at around 2pm

despite the market had taken a small dip, sensex was down 150 points from the earlier bullish movement as even ncpia shows.

I then decided to buy calls whenever i would see a dip. took 3 call trades. decent profit on a 15000 capital.

gonna trade again to let you know how i use this quant engine.

again I don't blindly get an idea from quant engine that yes i should buy call if bullish.

I see all timeframes and the technicals in those timeframes then determine how to use it with my trading strategy.

it's useful cuz I can see multi timeframe analysis how was an asset trading different timeframes like 1 minute ago, 5minutes ago, 15minutes ago, 1hour ago and last intraday signal being overall 1 day.

my strategy was to see overall sentiment, then see 5min having a dip and then 1min going from bearish to hold in the quant engine

so that's when i proposed a reversal could happen.

and that's what happened when i bought calls. if i held more at the time I could've made 20,000+ easily in profit but discipline told me to sell n have what you got after being correct.

if you want to check out the app it's available on Google Playstore

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ncpialtd.ncpia

📊 Account Size: ₹10.05L

✅ Realised P&L: ₹1.09L

Net realised return: ~9.95% over the period (~2.2% per month average).

My focus remains on disciplined risk management, defined risk option structures, and consistency.

Looking to connect with like minded traders, prop firms, and market participants for discussions, learning, and collaboration.

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Running my 10-year Markov regime-switching model on Nifty, and today’s print is a textbook example of why cash is a valid position.

Here is what the data shows when market momentum completely dies out:

The Dashboard Breakdown
- Regime: SIDEWAYS
- Momentum: DECEL (Decelerating)
- Conviction Score: 0.03 (Way below the 0.10 threshold required for a trade)

Next-Day Probabilities
Sideways: 79.8%
Bear: 11.1%
Bull: 9.1%

The Action: 0% Allocation

Because the conviction is only 0.03, the system triggered a strict Stand-aside order. We are taking 0.0% directional risk today. The multi-day directional edge is actually slightly bearish (-3.4%), but with momentum decelerating so sharply, the model refuses to chase it.

For the Option Sellers:
When you see an 80% chance of a sideways day but momentum is completely dead, do you blindly short premium, or do you sit out because premiums are too cheap to justify the tail risk?

Was Traveling Today So Couldn't Manage And When I Saw My Jaw Dropped!