r/IndianStreetBets

“Ethanol blending is a very stupid way to try and solve an energy problem.”

“It takes more fossil fuel energy to create ethanol than you can get out of ethanol you’ve created.”

- Charlie Munger. 2006.

https://x.com/CAronitpereira/status/2073305882834903105

After the IT mess I tried setting up something that flags when revenue, margins and valuation all start going south at the same time so I'm not just reading about it after the crash again.

https://preview.redd.it/mtjxj4812gbh1.png?width=1913&format=png&auto=webp&s=1721cb64bd3e7d002414bb67b40586d1716974be

No idea if this actually makes sense or if I'm overcomplicating it. How do you guys decide when a sector is done?

I wanted to test certain strategies and everything out there was either too complex to actually use or too expensive, so I ended up building this myself.

What it can do:

• Trade an index (with the actual historical constituents for each date — not today's list applied retroactively, which is the mistake most DIY backtests make) or a custom list of stocks.
• Build entry rules from technical indicators (RSI, SMA/EMA crossovers, volume spikes), combined in flexible OR-of-AND groups.
• Choose from multiple exit strategies — a target %, a stop-loss %, a max holding period, or any combination of these, with whichever hits first deciding the exit.
• Compare multiple strategy variants side-by-side on the same data.

On data quality: OHLCV data goes back to 2005 from official NSE bhavcopies, adjusted for splits/bonuses/reverse-splits, and cross-verified for demergers/spin-offs on the clearest cases — so a corporate action doesn't show up as a fake crash in your results.

To be clear about what this is: it's a swing-trading strategy backtester — works off daily OHLCV data, so it's built for multi-day holding strategies, not intraday/scalping.

Still very much a work in progress. If you've got suggestions for what to improve, I'd genuinely value the input — and I'll give access to anyone who offers something useful.

https://preview.redd.it/2nn864x0rebh1.png?width=1807&format=png&auto=webp&s=d01a34159e13d47c2b7b4ba16fad707e8d8c7865

https://preview.redd.it/acr9w3x0rebh1.png?width=1781&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5582671fc0c5fe80bb02df1fa91d15287f64ecf

https://preview.redd.it/qtbe44x0rebh1.png?width=1287&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ef0398191513a08c55759625f099e9f30812328

Paytm Money’s MTF business could be a big long-term opportunity. 👀

Why?

• Paytm has a strong cash position (around ₹13,000 crore on its balance sheet).

• Paytm has reported annual profitability in recent periods.

• Strong recurring revenue from Soundbox subscriptions and merchant services.

• Merchant loan distribution is largely an origination/distribution business, with lending funded by partner banks/NBFCs rather than Paytm’s own balance sheet.

• Additional revenue from payment gateway, marketing, and cloud services.

Now look at Paytm Money MTF:

Assumption:

• Funded amount: ₹5,00,000

• Holding period: 6 months (~180 days)

Paytm Money

• Interest: ~₹24,630 (9.99% p.a.)

• Brokerage (Buy + Sell): ~₹1,000

• Total cost: ~₹25,700–26,200

Angel One

• Interest: ~₹36,960 (14.99% p.a.)

• Brokerage (Buy + Sell): ₹40

• Total cost: ~₹37,000

For long-term MTF investors, the lower interest rate at Paytm Money can significantly reduce carrying costs compared with many competitors.

If Paytm decides to scale its MTF business prudently while maintaining strong risk controls, it could create another meaningful revenue stream through interest income and brokerage.

https://preview.redd.it/nvznsdgr37bh1.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad2334650e5a4741796a663ab87b064f24e3df3d

TCS chairman himself said AI agents will match headcount in 3 years. Accenture already cut guidance. Hiring permanently slowing across the sector.

Meanwhile I'm sitting here down 43% on Infosys and 41% on TCS because two years ago "IT is safe" was the smartest thing I'd ever heard.

Not asking what to do, just sharing the damage. If you're still bullish on IT services after their own leadership is telling you the old model is finished, I genuinely want to hear the thesis.