$KEEL Is Going to $30. Here's My Thesis.
My name is Gil, I’m 21, I’ve been investing consistently for the last five years, along with starting my accounting degree in October. I spend a lot of time reading filings and balance sheets, and this is one of the more interesting setups I’ve found in a while. This is my $KEEL thesis.
While doing my research, I've come across many people who still kind of believe this company is basically rebranded old Bitfarms with a new logo. Keel is literally the successor company to Bitfarms after the U.S. redomiciliation on April 1, 2026, and management has been very clear that the strategy now is North American digital infrastructure and energy infrastructure for HPC and AI. Also, the company sold the Paraguay site, so this is now a 100 percent North American portfolio.
The reason I think the market is missing the story is the power pipeline. Keel says it has 2.2 GW total pipeline, with 341 MW energized and 430 MW secured already. That is not tiny. Panther Creek alone is 350 MW in Pennsylvania. Sharon is 110 MW. Moses Lake is smaller at 18 MW, but it is another near term site. Then there is optionality in Sherbrooke and especially Scrubgrass, which is listed at up to 1.3 GW under application. Panther Creek also has positive indications it can go beyond 500 MW. That is where the story starts to get interesting.
The second thing is liquidity. As of May 8, 2026, management said they had around $533 million of liquidity, including cash and Bitcoin, and that this was enough to advance Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake through lease execution, start construction at Moses Lake, and cover G&A through 2028. Then in June they raised another $458 million of convertible notes at a 1.25 percent coupon. So this is not a company that looks like it is about to run out of cash next week. The balance sheet is not perfect, but they do have runway to actually push these projects forward.
I’m not gonna act like the current financials are pretty, because they are not. Q1 2026 revenue was $37 million. Operating loss was about $98 million. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was negative about $17 million. If you look at it like a mature operating company, it looks rough. But that’s also kind of the point. The market is staring at the ugly transition numbers while the company is trying to turn itself into something the market values very differently once leases start getting signed.
This is where valuation gets interesting. Using the March 31 balance sheet and a share price around $4.59, KEEL is trading at roughly $1.28 per watt of enterprise value against the full 2.2 GW pipeline. Management’s own comp slide basically says miner type comps can trade around $4.5 per watt without leases and around $9 per watt with leases. Now obviously that slide is management talking their book, so don’t worship it. But even if you use it just as a framework, the gap is pretty wild. If you only applied those numbers to energized plus secured capacity, you get something like mid single digits to low double digits. If you eventually apply those numbers to most of the full pipeline, that is where a stock price in the 20s or low 30s starts to become possible.
So no, I am not saying $30 is fair value right now. I think saying that right now is too cute and people will tear it apart. What I am saying is that I think $30 is a real multi year bull case if they execute leases across a big chunk of the pipeline and the market stops valuing this company as a Bitcoin mining company. That’s a very different claim, and I think it’s a much stronger one.
The bear case is obvious and it’s real. They still have ugly losses. They still need lease execution. They are still exposed to construction delays, power issues, customer concentration, tariffs, regulation, and dilution. They also added more converts in June, so if people ignore dilution risk they are kidding themselves. This is absolutely not risk free.
But if you ask me what the market is missing, it’s this: KEEL is not being valued like a company that actually owns real power positions in constrained North American markets with a path to monetize them into AI infrastructure. If lease execution starts showing up, I think the stock gets looked at completely differently. That’s the thesis.
Please let me know if I've missed any topics in this thesis. It took me around 3 days to write this, and around 2 weeks to build my thesis. I am not a financial advisor by any chance, I only do this as my personal hobby and in hopes to build a portfolio I'm proud of.