r/KalshiExposed

I started betting on kalshi out of curiosity when the world cup started, ads were everywhere and wanted to see how this app work, game after game, loss after another, I always wanted to get my money back and delete it but chasing this loss was so hard until I found myself losing 2k, 3k in seconds now I'm feeling depressed and can't imagine what I'm gonna do I'm 25, I saved this money by working two jobs and sleepless nights, I was thinking to do chargeback with my bank account but I read here yesterday that can be a felony and I don't want take risks anymore. Would love any help on how to get my money back or how to move on anyway. Thank you

TLDR: mentions suck

This concerns the weekly bet for Trump mentions that closes each Monday at 12:00 am (Sunday midnight). Normally, Kalshi confirms something within a hour if Trump says something and the mention is verified and closed or 99%/1%.

Last night "Bibi/Netanyahu" was open with one day to go - the odds were 90% yes, 10% no. The contract closed on 8/17/26 at 12:00 am.

I did my usual searches with Google, ChatGPT, Claude, and Reddit. There was one mention in an Axios article from 8/14/26 where two sources were quoted as saying that Trump said "Bibi is his own worst enemy". The rules for the contract says "The word or phrase must be stated by Doanld Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts."

So, after some thought I saw the mention had not closed based on the article on 8/14/26 and was still trading - now at 3% "no". Reading the language "direct quotes published by Source Agencies" made me think that quotes from sources did not count - aka legal hearsay. I also checked with the Kalshi bot that said "Mention markets typically rely on the strict, literal usage of the word or phrase purchased, and the target word(s) usually must be said by the specific person(s) named in the rules. For instance, if the rules define the speaker as the "Announcers," words spoken by someone else, such as a referee, would not qualify toward settlement. There can be additional contingencies—the official televised stream may be the only resolution source, or previous recordings aired during the event may not count—so review the full rules. The final determination is always governed by the definitions and source agencies on the market's Rules page."

So, I concluded I was good and put in a $1000 bet that would have paid $25,000. The contract closed and didn't immediately update. It did at 7 this morning, or seven hours after it closed which is atypical, and Kalshi concluded the Axios article counted, which means I lost. I had to make many demands to the Kalshi bot for a human response, which I finally got and they simply said the ruling was final. It was probably another bot posing as a person.

So, anonymous sources saying that someone said something is a "yes" confirmation according to Kalshi as long as it's printed. Kalshi let the bet stay open until the contract expired, then changed it to 99%/1%.

What BS. I'm done with Kalshi. Back to stocks only.

I got flagged by Kalshi’s compliance team. They sent the email below. Without getting into what caused me to be flagged, what is my next best step here? And what happens if I do not respond to their request for info?

Here’s the email:

Thank you for your participation on the Kalshi Exchange. You are receiving this email as our compliance team has initiated an inquiry regarding some of your activity.

As part of this process, we request that you provide Proof of Identity (e.g., drivers license, passport) by uploading documentation here.
 
Please also provide the following documentation and information as soon as possible, but no later than [date kept anonymous]:
Proof of address (e.g., bank statement or utility bill)
Employment status (i.e. Full Time, Part Time, Unemployed), industry, and proof of employment (e.g., a payslip or a bank statement showing employer and salary deposits)
If you are unemployed, please provide a prior year tax return or bank statement
Approximate annual income and net worth
Source of funds (e.g., earnings, savings, gifts)
Once this information is received, our team may reach out for a quick meeting. Kalshi members are required to comply with all Compliance Department requests as part of Kalshi's exchange rules, which are approved by the CFTC and binding on all members.

Failure to comply may lead to disciplinary action by the exchange and result in penalties or further proceedings.

Thank you,
Kalshi Compliance Team

https://preview.redd.it/4u96a50l0hjh1.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=53dc86eea2b064b525a9f3a2e279d72b874177df

Like the title said. During the world cup made some great money. I believe the world cup gave this platform such high new userbase and did what it was meant to do which was make people stick around post world cup. The problem? Once something begins to become almost "cultural" it begins to go down the drain.

Kalshi used to gives you what I call "Corner" meaning it gave you advantages like being able to cash out for almost close to your final payout as long as the game was almost over and you were up. Now? I see people locked into a bet when one soccer team is up 1-0 and the game has five minutes left. When people raise concerns you find kalshi defense soldiers come to make excuses. Saying that no one is buying his position or there is lack of volume. IF the game has a starting of a quarter of a million I don't believe no one wants to buy a winning position with 5-3 minutes left.

There is a belief that there is "no house" with kalshi. However the reality is class actions that they are fighting exposes that kalshi is house and do buy up positions themselves. Something most people already knew that kalshi used bots to achieve this malpractice. You will get the crumbs when trying to hedge your bets while kalshi bots get first dips on the best prices.

Then you have not displaying accurate live information while claiming to do so. This has costs people so much money.

My very last point. Trump jr is an advisor for these prediction apps. Heavily involved. I am not anti trump or a political opposition. However, when a family who has stolen money from their proclaimed "cancer charity fund" is in government and also behind the scenes in these prediction market one can only know it's only a matter of time until the casino begins to show itself as a circus.

Just stop now. They want you to win at the start and believe it's fair and that the kalshi doesn't make money whether you win or lose. They want you to win so you continue to use and they want you to lose so you make money back. In the very end once it has became part of your daily routine they will only want you to lose as they pull every corner they used to once give you to their own advantage instead of yours.

These aps should not prosper. They are what society claims to hate of only making the rich richer. They do not truly block out insiders from trading like they claim to do. As there are loopholes on what defines an insider.

Been following the ongoing ny Kalshi lawsuits and was wondering what people think the chances are of there ever being some kind of restitution/refund program if things ultimately go against Kalshi.

For context, I was under 21 when I used Kalshi, all of my trades were on sports markets, and I ended up losing around $5k total. All of my activity also happened after the 7/7 decision, which in my understanding determined that ny could enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi (correct me if I'm wrong).

I've completely quit since then and honestly just look at the $5k as a pretty expensive lesson at this point lol. I'm not counting on ever seeing that money again.

But I'm still curious,,, if these lawsuits/regulatory challenges eventually go against Kalshi, is there actually a scenario where users like me could file a claim and potentially get some or all of their losses back? Especially considering I was under 21 at the time and only used the sports markets. Or is restitution basically a long shot even if Kalshi loses?

Would be interested to hear from anyone who follows these cases or knows how restitution has worked in similar situations.

don't wanna be overly optimistic but still would like to know if there's even a slightest chance of recovering losses in the near future.

(edit: I appreciate all legit advice/opinions, NOT asking for any moral judgement... already having a hard time with recovering from the 5k loss... if you still feel the need to leave a snobby comment after reading this I hope everyone treats you the same at the hardest time of your life the way you're treating me now. )

I can't deposit or do a withdrawal, I've never charged back anything or even used this app much recently, l've already lost 5k on this app and I can't even withdraw my money support is completely useless they keep sending generic messages if they don't fix it I'm disputing everything from the last 90 days I'm done with this app!

I did two wire transfer to Kalshi a while back each were 5k (obviously lost it all) do you think I’ll be able to dispute it. I don’t care if they close my Kalshi account but I’m down bad and 2 months ago I filed for bankruptcy. What can happen? Any one has experience? Please leave mortality out of if I would like the 10k back and to get banned from Kalshi.

Hello, a good evening. I wanted to make everyone aware, to not buy bots, do not give anyone money that claims to have a bot, even if they stream and show you it “works”

Too many times have I seen individuals fall for this, they watch a stream, guy gets some lucky calls, then before ending the stream, ask you to join a discord, and sell you a bot.

To some people’s surprise, after they buy the bot, they can’t understand why their win rate isn’t reflecting anything like it was on stream. You feel cheated, lied to, yadda yadda.

Long explanation short, there is no such thing as a bot that accurately predicts the crypto market. There are a few factors that bots CAN NOT account for.

Anyone claiming this that and the third, is just trying to scam you.

Also on another note, most of the bots I have seen currently, are not “Coded” but rather “Prompted” using Claude or an equivalent A.I. model.

This is everything you can do yourself, however, again, a Bot that Predicts the crypto market is IMPOSSIBLE! End of story.

Do not support anyone that is doing this scummy crap!

I’ve been analyzing gold from a technical perspective, and based on the current price structure, trend, key levels, and timing, I believe we could see a bullish move over the next three weeks.
That makes the gold prediction markets on Kalshi particularly interesting to me right now.
I’m not saying gold is guaranteed to go up — nothing in the market is guaranteed. This is simply my analysis and the setup I’m watching.
My thesis:
📈 Bullish bias on Gold
⏳ Time horizon: approximately 3 weeks
🎯 Looking for opportunities in Kalshi gold markets
🧠 Decision based on technical analysis, price action, trend and timing
The interesting part about prediction markets is that you don’t necessarily need to buy gold itself. You can take a position on whether a specific price or event will occur.
What do you guys think?
Bullish or bearish on gold for the next 3 weeks?
This is my personal market analysis, not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your own risk.

TL;DR - Asked Kalshi why the Gustavo Petro out market still wasn’t resolved — next day they changed the rules

Earlier this year, I placed a bet on Kalshi's "Which leaders will leave office this year?" market. This market first opened for trading in November 2025 and +$8 million has been traded on it to date. Kalshi has a wide variety of world leaders listed on this market like Ali Khamenei, Keir Starmer, and Gustavo Petro. I specifically bet 'yes' on Gustavo Petro, the President of Colombia.

The rules of the market were straightforward:

• Resolves Yes if Gustavo Petro has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Colombia or has actually left President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027.
• Outcome verified from Gustavo Petro, the office or organization where Gustavo Petro holds office, etc.
• The announcement must be made within 1 year of them leaving and be reported by at least 1 Source Agency.

Screenshots I took of the full rules doc on June 22, 2026:

https://preview.redd.it/tia8n32u7xhh1.jpg?width=2044&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=578a6ca1712fa552d9bfeca24a0a4bc78bd82464

https://preview.redd.it/cqprd01x7xhh1.jpg?width=2035&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=604177895c8069722cc3b16d23661f88bb7165b2

Petro has stated on numerous occasions, both on his official social media accounts and in speeches, that he intends to step down from office on August 7, 2026, which is the end of his term.

Other people who bet on this have been asking in the Kalshi Discord as far back as February 2026, for Kalshi to resolve and pay this Gustavo Petro bet out. These messages were acknowledged by Blake Law, a member of Kalshi's political markets team. He goes by the name of 'BLONK' on Discord. However, no action was ever taken by BLONK. Subsequent messaged by users on why it was taking so long to resolve and pay this out were ignored by him.

Now, here's where things get interesting!

I sent a DM to BLONK on Discord on June 14, 2026 confronting him about the delay. He sent me a screenshot of the rules with a line highlighted that reads "an acknowledgement by <leader> that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or a legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion." That line was nowhere to be found in the rules---neither in the rules summary or full rules document. When I told him this, his response was "my bad, we'll address this."

Here's a screenshot of my conversation with him:

https://preview.redd.it/s4fve6wy7xhh1.jpg?width=1282&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2afcee066a3c4c2ae091be2a3f4b77894e439cc0

The next day, on June 15, 2026, Kalshi filed a rules amendment with the CFTC through their 'self-certification' process. This allows companies like Kalshi to list new products or implement rule changes without needing prior approval.

Here is a link to the amendment Kalshi filed with the CFTC:
https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/notices/LEAVEOFFICE%20Amendment%202%20(for%20posting).pdf

This amendment not only includes the line BLONK sent me the day before, but also contains new stipulations on how the market would pay out in the event of death. This is the 2nd time Kalshi has filed an amendment for this market.

When I asked BLONK why him and Kalshi were secretly following a different set of rules internally for months while presenting a different set of rules to bettors, there was no response. Quite frankly, I don't expect one from him. They fucked this up. But owning up to their mistakes is hard for Kalshi to do.

Despite filing a rules amendment with the CFTC on June 15, 2026, Kalshi still continued to deceive bettors by presenting the old rules to them for 3 weeks. Around July 10, 2026, Kalshi quietly updated the full rules doc with the new amended rules. Kalshi did not notify bettors who had existing positions that they had changed the rules.

You can see all the amendments Kalshi filed here (there's a ton of them):
https://kalshi.com/regulatory/notices

How Kalshi is using the CFTC's 'self-certification' process to change the rules of markets should concern people. When someone places a bet on a market, there's an understanding the rules displayed to them will be followed. Think of the rules as an agreement between Kalshi and the bettor. What Kalshi is doing here is using the CFTC's 'self-certification' process to change the rules of a market at any time for any reason. While Kalshi employees like 'BLONK' say "my bad", users are the ones to pay the price.

Under the Trump administration, the CFTC has been gutted and greatly dialed backs its enforcement efforts. The agency has an overtly friendly relationship with PMs, including Kalshi. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, considering that Don Jr., the President's son, is an advisor to Kalshi. Tarek Mansour gifted him a $300k equity stake in Kalshi.

The NYT wrote a great article regarding the CFTC. Give it a read: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/how-prediction-markets-and-crypto-firms-steamrolled-a-watchdog-agency.html

A couple additional points I'd like to mention before some Kalshi bootlicker attacks me in the comments:

• "The Payout Criterion hasn't been met!"
  • Under the previous rules, it was. Petro has stated on numerous occasions his intent to leave office at the end of his term on August 7, 2026. Here is a statement published on the President of Colombia's website from last month about a transition being underway. Despite this overwhelming amount of evidence, Kalshi chose to drag its heels in resolving and paying this out. They quietly changed the rules. The new rules included a caveat, which previously didn't exist.
• "Kalshi will pay this out on August 7, 2026. What's the big deal?"
  • Hopefully, unless they secretly changed the rules again or want to delay this any further. This should have been paid out months ago.
• "If Kalshi takes a while to resolve and pay out a bet, that means the Payout Criterion hasn't been met!"
  • Wrong. It is not unusual for them to take a while to pay out. They want to milk as much money off of fees from users as they can. Last year, Kalshi ran a market on whether Trump would meet Jeff Bezos at the White House. On July 22nd, NBC published an article about the two meeting. Despite this, Kalshi took until December 1st to resolve it. When 'BLONK' was asked about the delay in the Kalshi Discord, he responded with a link to that same NBC article and said this was 'carefully deliberated.' Really? 6 fucking months to deliberate? Mind you there wasn't a ton of volume on this either. Since Kalshi was taking so long, the value of 'yes' shares cratered to below 10 cents a share at one point. What I believe truly happened here is that, Kalshi wasn't on top of this market and didn't realize the Payout Criterion had been met until months later.
    • 'Locksy', who is a Kalshi affiliate on X, lost $1500 and posted a video of him crashing out. He later quietly deleted this, as I don't think it sat well with his handlers at Kalshi HQ. Just days earlier, he made a post encouraging people to buy in. He believed that since Kalshi was taking so long, that the Payout Criterion hasn't been met. He couldn't have been more wrong.