Buffalo Sabres vs Montréal Canadiens — May 14, 2026
This matchup is a lot tighter than the surface-level records make it look.
Buffalo comes in 6-4 over its last 10 games and Montréal is 5-5, but the more important split here is where the game is being played and how these teams have actually performed in this matchup recently.
Recent trends:
• Buffalo home record last 10: 2-3
• Buffalo away record last 10: 4-1
• Montréal away record last 10: 3-2
• Buffalo averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.7 allowed
• Montréal averaging 2.7 goals scored and only 2.2 allowed
• Season series: Buffalo leads 2-1
The biggest edge in this game is the projected goalie matchup.
Projected starters:
• Jakub Dobes (MTL): 2.22 GAA, .914 SV%
• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF): 3.37 GAA, .873 SV%
That is a massive difference statistically.
Dobes has been one of the stronger goaltenders in this dataset, while Luukkonen’s numbers are well below league-average territory. Even with the smaller sample size on Luukkonen, the gap is large enough that the model heavily weights it.
That lines up with Montréal’s overall defensive profile too. The Canadiens are allowing only 2.2 goals per game recently, which is the best defensive number in this matchup.
The recent series history is also important because it shows how volatile these games have been:
• May 12: Buffalo won 3-2
• May 10: Montréal won 6-2
• May 8: Montréal won 5-1 in Buffalo
• May 6: Buffalo won 4-2
There is a clear pattern there:
When Buffalo wins, the games tend to stay tighter.
When Montréal wins, they have been winning comfortably.
That matters for a puck line sitting at Buffalo -1.5.
Buffalo being favored by multiple goals becomes difficult to justify when:
• they are only 2-3 at home recently
• Montréal already won 5-1 in this building
• Buffalo’s most recent win over Montréal was only 3-2
• and the projected goalie matchup strongly favors Montréal
The market reflects some of that uncertainty too.
Buffalo ML sitting around -122 implies only a modest edge, while Montréal around +102 is basically pricing this game close to a coin flip despite Buffalo laying -1.5 on the puck line.
The EV board is interesting here:
• Spread EV: +31.63%
• Total EV: -18.62%
• Buffalo ML EV: -3.56%
• Montréal ML EV: -5.06%
That tells you the cleanest mathematical angle is the spread, not the moneyline or total.
The total is especially tricky because recent games have ranged from tight defensive battles to explosive scoring swings. The model does not see enough consistency there to justify forcing an over or under.
Player-wise, Montréal’s offensive depth matters in this matchup too.
Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov, and Patrik Laine give Montréal enough firepower to capitalize if Buffalo’s goaltending struggles continue. On the Buffalo side, a lot depends on whether Luukkonen can stabilize the game early and whether Buffalo can create separation at even strength instead of relying on late-game pressure.
The biggest question is simple:
Can Buffalo finally dominate this matchup at home, or does Montréal’s goalie advantage and defensive structure keep this within one goal again?
Lean: Montréal +1.5
Best EV angle: Montréal +1.5 (+31.63% EV)