I Think Most Homeowners Are Using the Wrong Math When They Decide to Become a Landlord
One of the biggest reasons people decide to keep their current house as a rental is because they think they'll make money every month. That's not necessarily wrong, but monthly cash flow is only one piece of the puzzle. If you're trying to decide whether to sell or rent, you need to look at the complete ROI stack (return on investment - I guess I shouldn't assume everyone knows the acronyms).
Let's use a realistic New Jersey example. Your house is worth $800,000 and your mortgage balance is $425,000 (thank you Covid rate of 3.5%). That gives you $375,000 in equity, but you wouldn't actually keep all of that if you sold. After paying a 6% Realtor commission ($48,000), the New Jersey Realty Transfer Fee ($7,305), and about $5,000 to get the house ready for sale, you'd walk away with roughly $314,695.
That's the amount of money you're choosing to leave invested in the property if you decide to become a landlord. Now let's say the house rents for $3,750 a month and your mortgage payment is $3,140. Your monthly cash flow is about $610, or $7,320 per year. Based on the $314,695 you have invested, that's a 2.3% cash-on-cash return.
If that was the entire calculation, renting probably wouldn't look all that attractive. However. the complete ROI stack has three pieces.
Cash flow gives you $7,320 per year, or a 2.3% return. Principal paydown adds another $11,760 in equity over the course of the year, assuming about $980 of each monthly payment goes toward principal. Now your total annual return is $19,080, or about 6.1%.
Then there's appreciation. If your $800,000 home increases in value by 3% over the next year, that's another $24,000 in equity.
Add all three together and your complete ROI stack looks like this:
Cash flow: $7,320 (2.3%)
Principal paydown: $11,760 (3.7%)
Appreciation: $24,000 (7.6%)
Total annual return: $43,080 (13.7%)
Looking at only the monthly cash flow tells one story. Looking at the complete ROI stack tells a very different one.
Of course, these numbers assume everything goes according to plan. In my next post I'll go through the expenses and risks that can change this calculation in a hurry, because that's the part people usually underestimate.