r/NewColdWar

Ukraine finds itself in its best battlefield position since autumn 2022. Leadership changes within Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense have spurred rapid drone innovation, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to fight more effectively and sustainably on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukraine’s burgeoning mid- and long-range strike capabilities erode Russia’s war machine at an escalating rate.

The AFU’s recent battlefield success has attracted global demand for Ukrainian drone technology in the wake of the conflict with Iran. Ukraine has signed numerous defense agreements, not only with Western partners, but also Gulf States, at the political and private sector levels. Ukraine has bolstered its global standing through cutting-edge defense technology.

With little success on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to intensified strikes on civilian targets inside of Ukraine in a desperate attempt to break Ukrainian morale. Russia broke its monthly launch record in May, which became the deadliest month for Ukraine’s civilians since April 2022, according to the United Nations. On June 15, Russia struck prominent Ukrainian cultural centers in Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kyiv.

Moscow has paired these strikes with escalated rhetoric and brinksmanship. The Russian Foreign Ministry publicly warned foreign nationals to evacuate Kyiv ahead of what was promised to be an escalatory strike. Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN told his Latvian counterpart that Latvia cannot count on NATO support. Launches of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles have become more frequent, as has the construction of military infrastructure on NATO borders.

The Kremlin hopes that these measures will intimidate and frighten Ukraine and its partners to erode Western cohesion and support. In reality, increased strikes and brinksmanship have only hardened resolve. An increasingly desperate Putin may resort to even more desperate measures in the near future as his war falters.

Selected Jamestown Analysis

“Russian Economy Collapsing While Officials Enrich Themselves,” Vadim Shtepa, March 2, 2026

“Diverse Russian Responses to U.S.-Israeli Airstrikes on Iran Reveal Elite Split,” Kassie Corelli, March 10, 2026

“Military Spending Now Half of Russia’s Budget,” John C.K. Daly, March 16, 2026

“As Putin’s War Comes Home, Russians Ever Less Prepared to Support It,” Paul Goble, March 19, 2026

“Telegram Outages Spike in Kremlin’s Push for Digital Control,” Kassie Corelli, March 19, 2026

“Putin’s War Calculus Keeps Oscillating as Spring Offensive Stumbles,” Pavel K. Baev, March 30, 2026

“Kremlin Inadequately Responds to Increased Ukrainian Strikes,” Kassie Corelli, March 30, 2026

“Ukraine–Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement Highlights Demand for Battle-Tested Expertise,” Yuri Lapaiev, April 1, 2026

“Putin Moves Against Internet Alienate Russians,” Paul Goble, April 2, 2026

“Putin Seen Making Ever More Mistakes, Sending Approval Rating Down,” Paul Goble, April 7, 2026

“Russians Appeal to Putin That He is Misinformed About Reality,” Pavel K. Baev, April 27, 2026