Yeah I know, another NVDA post. But the numbers that just dropped are too insane to ignore and I think most people are underestimating what they mean.

$81.6 billion in quarterly revenue. Up 85% year over year. Let that sink in. We're not talking about some small cap doubling off a tiny base - this is a $5.7 trillion company still growing like a startup. The law of large numbers was supposed to slow them down by now and it just... hasn't.

Then you have Anthropic turning profitable for the first time in Q2 2026. And here's the kicker - they're paying SpaceX $15 billion per year according to those IPO papers. That's one AI company spending $15B on compute infrastructure. One. When the AI companies start printing money instead of burning it, the spend on chips doesn't slow down - it accelerates. Every AI startup that becomes profitable validates the business model and attracts more capital into the space. NVDA is the toll collector on all of it.

Fear is at 29 right now. The market is still scared. Garbage is getting cleaned out - $LICN down 61%, $SOPA down 55%, $JYD down 52%. Speculative trash is dying but the real companies are about to get bid up again. When sentiment flips from fear back to neutral, the money flows into quality first. And nothing screams quality like 85% revenue growth.

My prediction: NVDA hits $200 per share before their next earnings report in late August. That's roughly 15-20% upside from current levels in under 3 months. Not crazy, not conservative - just following the momentum and the fundamentals.

The risk? Warsh tanks the market with hawkish Fed talk, or AI spending actually does slow down and the multiple compresses. But I don't see it with numbers like these.

RemindMe! 30 days

What's your boldest call right now? Bull or bear, I want to hear it.

Every time the market tanks I see the same thing happen. Fear drops, some stock you liked is suddenly 30% cheaper, and your brain goes "perfect, I'll lower my cost basis." So you buy more. Then it drops another 20%. So you buy more again. Now you're sitting on a huge position in something that's bleeding out and you can't even remember why you liked it in the first place.

I know because I've done it. More times than I want to admit.

The problem isn't the concept - averaging down works when you're right about the thesis. The problem is most traders use it as a substitute for having a plan. They confuse "it's cheaper now" with "it's a better value." Those are completely different things.

Look at today's board. $BTM down 73%. $PIIIW down 51% after being up 1,600% two days ago. $LICN down 46%. Somewhere out there, someone bought each of those dips today thinking they were getting a deal. They weren't averaging down into a high-conviction position - they were catching falling knives because the price looked cheaper than yesterday.

Here's the analogy I wish someone had given me years ago. Imagine you're at a restaurant and you order a meal. The waiter brings it out and it tastes bad - like genuinely off. Do you order a second helping because it's now half price? Of course not. You stop eating. But traders do the equivalent every day with losing positions. The price went down so it must be a better entry, right? No. Sometimes the price went down because the thesis was wrong.

The Ryanair CEO story today is actually a perfect example of doing this correctly. He locked in 80% of his jet fuel requirements through March 2027 at $67. He didn't wait for prices to drop further or try to time the perfect entry. He had a thesis, he had a size that made sense for his operation, and he executed. No averaging down needed because he got the planning right upfront.

That's what averaging down should look like. You have a clear thesis, a maximum position size, and predetermined levels where you'd add. Not "oh it's down 15%, guess I'll buy more."

The other thing nobody talks about is what averaging down does to your psychology. When you keep adding to a loser, you become emotionally invested in being right. Every dollar you put in makes it harder to admit you were wrong. I've held positions way too long simply because I'd already averaged down three times and selling meant accepting the full loss. Had I just taken the small hit on my original position, I'd have been out weeks earlier and saved way more money.

So here's my framework now. Before I average into anything, I ask myself three questions. Would I open a brand new position at this price right now? Do I have a clear level where I'll admit I'm wrong? Is this adding more than 25% to my original position size? If the answer to any of those is no, I don't buy. I either hold what I have or I exit.

Fear is at 25 right now. Extreme fear. There are probably genuine opportunities out there. But the difference between catching a bottom and blowing up your account isn't luck - it's having rules before you start buying.

What's your approach? Do you average down or do you cut and move on?

Extreme Fear. That's what the board says right now. 25 on the Fear & Greed index and we've been dropping fast - 43 to 28 to 25 in like four days.

But here's what's messing with my head. Look at today's movers. $BTM down 73%. $BTMWW down 74%. $PIIIW which was UP 1,614% two days ago is now down 51%. The garbage is finally getting wiped out which is usually what happens right before a bottom. Or right before it gets worse.

Then I see Trump averaged 59 stock trades per day in Q1. One trade every seven minutes. The president of the United States is day trading while running the country and nobody seems to care. Meanwhile Gates Foundation dumped all their remaining $MSFT. And the SEC is moving toward tokenized stocks without issuer consent - which sounds like they're building the infrastructure for a whole new wave of speculation.

So we've got extreme fear, insider selling, the president actively trading, and regulators opening new doors for retail to YOLO into things. This is either the setup for the biggest dead cat bounce of the year or the moment where everything finally breaks.

I genuinely don't know which way this goes. My gut says the washout is close but my brain says fear can stay at these levels way longer than you'd expect.

Are you guys stepping in here or waiting for actual confirmation? What would make you pull the trigger?

That thread asking if Nvidia is gonna tank soon is getting dragged but honestly it's not a stupid question anymore.

Fear is at 28. The entire market is bleeding. Samsung union chaos threatening chip supply. Warsh taking over Fed with inflation still sticky. And Nvidia is sitting at a $5.7 trillion valuation like none of this matters.

Side one: NVDA is the most important company on earth right now and the dip is a gift. AI spending isn't slowing down - Samsung's memory unit getting 607% bonuses tells you everything about where the money is flowing. Every pullup in NVDA gets bought by institutions who need exposure. The China trip was a nothingburger but Jensen was on that plane for a reason. You don't bet against the one stock carrying the entire index.

Side two: $5.7 trillion is pricing in perfection. Look at the garbage underneath - $WOK down 49%, $ELPW down 51%. The market is rotting from the inside and NVDA is the last domino standing. When even the AI bulls start asking "is it going to tank," that's the kind of sentiment shift that precedes a 15-20% correction. Berkshire tripled their Google stake, not Nvidia. Smart money is diversifying away from the single-name AI bet.

I'm torn. My gut says you don't short the king during a structural boom, but my brain says nothing escapes gravity forever - especially at these valuations.

What's your move here - loading up on NVDA or rotating into something with less downside risk?

Alright so Powell's term officially expired Friday and Kevin Warsh just walked into an absolute nightmare. 3.8% CPI, 6% PPI, and the bond market is already pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts. Fear sitting at 28 and dropping.

This is the debate that matters right now. Everything else is noise.

Side one: Warsh goes hawkish immediately. He's historically been a inflation hawk and he's not gonna start his tenure looking soft. Bond market is already telling him what to do - hikes are coming. This means growth stocks get hammered, $GOOGL and $MSFT and the entire AI trade reprices lower, and we finally get the washout everyone's been waiting for. Cash is king for the next 3-6 months. The garbage stocks dying right now ($WOK down 49%, $ELPW down 51%) are just the beginning.

Side two: Warsh can't hike because the economy is already cracking. Samsung's union situation, consumer spending rolling over, fear at 28 - hiking into this would trigger a recession on purpose. He talks tough but holds steady, maybe even pivots to cuts by Q3 once the data deteriorates enough. This is the Buffett thesis - buy fear, ride the eventual rescue. $DUKRW up 17,900% tells you speculators aren't scared yet either.

Honestly idk where I land. The bond market has been wrong before. But 6% PPI is genuinely ugly and pretending inflation is solved feels delusional.

Which way are you playing it - loading up on defensives and cash, or buying the fear here hoping Warsh blinks?

This is the part that always gets me. Fear crashes to 27 - lowest since the regional bank crisis - and what does Berkshire do? Triples their $GOOGL stake and buys $DAL again. The guy literally wrote the rule about being greedy when others are fearful and people still won't follow it.

But here's the uncomfortable truth: Buffett can afford to be early and wrong. You probably can't.

Look at today's board if you want to see what fear actually looks like in real time. $DUKRW up 17,900%. $EXYNW up 8,000%. $PIIIW up 1,614%. That's not investing, that's pure gambling by people who are either desperate or bored or both. Meanwhile $WOK is down 49% for the second day in a row. $ELPW down 51%. Five stocks lost nearly half their value today and the response from most traders is either denial or doubling down.

The Samsung bonus thing is wild too. Memory unit getting 607% bonuses while foundry workers get 100%? Union revolt over the gap? That tells me the AI chip boom is real but it's not lifting all boats. The money is concentrating at the top and everyone else is fighting for scraps. That's not a healthy semiconductor cycle - that's a winner-take-all dynamic that eventually breaks something.

And that thread about feeling crazy buying stocks 4x higher - yeah, it should feel crazy. Because the people who bought at the bottom had conviction AND timing. Buying now at 4x just because it worked out for someone else isn't conviction, it's FOMO wearing a disguise.

I'm not saying Buffett is wrong here. He's probably right, like he usually is on longer timeframes. But the gap between "Buffett buys Google" and "you should buy Google" is massive. His cost basis, timeline, and pain tolerance are nothing like yours.

Fear at 27 either means we're close to a bounce or we're heading toward real capitulation. The garbage stocks dying is healthy. The warrant madness is not.

Anyone actually adding exposure here or are we all just watching from the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal?

We went from 43 two days ago to 27 today. That's a 16-point drop in 48 hours and nobody's even talking about it. Last time fear was this low was during the regional bank mess and before that March 2020.

But sure, let's keep discussing whether Ackman or Buffett has the better Google thesis.

The thing that gets me is the disconnect. Look at the top gainers today - $DUKRW up 17,900%, $EXYNW up 8,000%, $PIIIW up 1,614%. These are warrants and micro-cap garbage flying around like it's January 2021 again. Meanwhile the bottom is falling out of everything else. $WOK down another 49% after being down 52% yesterday. $ELPW down 51%. Five stocks down 45%+ in a single session.

This isn't a healthy market. This is what a market looks like when liquidity is dying but degenerates are still YOLOing their last dollars into lottery tickets.

And the Samsung bonus story tells you everything about where we are economically. Memory unit getting 607% bonuses while foundry workers get 100%. Union revolt. The chip sector - the one thing holding this market together - is showing fractures. If Samsung's foundry business is struggling that badly relative to memory, what does that say about demand? What does that say about the AI infrastructure buildout everyone keeps telling us is unstoppable?

I keep seeing that thread about "feels crazy to buy stocks 4x higher than when I first invested." Yeah, it should feel crazy. Because the market is telling you something. When fear drops this fast while garbage stocks implode and the only thing green is stuff with zero fundamentals, the smart money isn't buying. They already left.

Trump came back from China with nothing. Tech got punished. Fear is at 27 and falling. The "rotation into quality" I called earlier this week hasn't materialized - it's just rotation into cash.

Maybe I'm being too bearish here. Maybe this washout is the exact moment to step in. But when I see numbers like today's board and a fear reading this low, my gut says wait. Let the knife finish dropping.

Anyone actually buying this dip or are we all just watching the car crash in slow motion?

So when I saw that thread about buying one share of each CEO that went to China with Trump, I actually did it. Figured it would be a fun experiment - either the "insider access" thesis plays out or I learn a cheap lesson.

I bought 14 stocks on May 13th right after the passenger list dropped. Put about $2,800 total into it. Equal weight, one share each. Here's where it stands after Trump left Beijing with nothing but "fantastic conversations" and tech got hammered.

The winners: NVDA held up okay, only down 2.1% which feels like a miracle given the broader selloff. One of the logistics companies gained 4.3%. A couple of ag names were flat to slightly green. That's it. That's the win column.

The losers: Three tech CEOs saw their stocks drop 8-12% since Tuesday. One semiconductor name I bought at $187 closed today at $164. The defense contractor picks got hit when the China deal fell apart - down 6% and 9% respectively.

Total return as of today: down 7.4% or about $207 in the red.

Meanwhile the S&P hit 7,500 but nearly half the index is below its 50-day moving average. Fear dropped to 31. The market is clearly rotting underneath and I bought a basket of "connected" stocks right into the teeth of it.

The thing that bugs me is the thesis wasn't even wrong. These CEOs did have unique access. They were literally on Air Force One. But access doesn't equal deals, and the market doesn't reward effort - it rewards results.

What I should have done was wait. Let the trip play out, see if anything material got announced, then buy the winners. Instead I front-ran a geopolitical event based on vibes and Reddit FOMO.

The real lesson: when someone posts an idea that sounds smart and you immediately want to copy it, that's exactly when you should slow down. The best trades I've ever made felt uncomfortable entering. This one felt like a no-brainer. That was the red flag I ignored.

What would you have done differently? Anyone else try this trade or did most of you just watch from the sidelines?

Saw that thread about Berkshire tripling their $GOOG position while Ackman sold 95% of his to buy $MSFT. Both legendary investors, completely opposite moves, both "very bullish" on Google long term. And I guarantee half of Reddit is confused as hell trying to figure out who to follow.

Here's the thing nobody tells you about following smart money. You're not actually following smart money. You're following a headline about smart money from three months ago with zero context.

Let me break down why this destroys beginners.

13F filings come out 45 days after the quarter ends. So when you read that Buffett tripled his Google position, that happened sometime in Q1. January through March. You're reading about it in mid-May. The price has already moved. The thesis may have already played out. You're not piggybacking Buffett, you're eating his leftovers.

But that's not even the real problem. The real problem is you don't know WHY he bought it.

Maybe Buffett added to Google because he had cash sitting around and it looked cheap on a Tuesday. Maybe Ackman sold because his fund needed liquidity for a bigger bet, not because he hated Google. Maybe both of them would tell you they have no idea what the stock will do next week because they're thinking in years, not days.

Think about it like this. You're at a poker table. Warren Buffett goes all in. You can't see his cards. You don't know his chip stack. You don't know his strategy. But you go all in too because hey, Buffett must know something right?

That's literally what copying 13F filings is. You're mimicking a bet without understanding the reasoning, the timeline, the position size relative to their portfolio, or their exit plan.

Look at today's board if you want proof that blindly following is dangerous. $DUKRW up 17,900%. $EXYNW up 8,000%. $PIIIW up 1,614%. You think any of those moves were predictable from institutional filings? Hell no. The big money plays are in the derivatives and private markets you can't even see.

And here's what really gets me. When Buffett buys and the stock drops 15%, he averages down. He's got billions and decades. When you copy his trade and it drops 15%, you panic sell at the bottom and post on Reddit about how value investing is dead.

The Ackman move is the perfect example. He sold Google to buy Microsoft. Sounds like a clear signal right? But what if his Google position was up 40% and he just wanted to lock in gains? What if MSFT had a better risk-reward at that exact moment? What if it was tax planning? You don't know. You can't know.

If you want to learn from smart money, don't copy their trades. Copy their thinking. Read Buffett's shareholder letters for how he evaluates businesses. Watch Ackman's interviews for how he thinks about concentration and conviction. The positions are just the output. The process is what matters.

Fear at 31 right now means a lot of people are looking for someone to follow. Don't let it be a headline from 45 days ago.

How do you guys use institutional data - do you actually trade off it or just use it as confirmation?

Everyone's celebrating that the NASDAQ can't even manage a 2% red day after a 26% run. "Market is strong!" "Bears can't get anything going!" Yeah, and that's exactly what scares the hell out of me.

Sentiment just dropped from 49 to 42 in a single day. That's fear territory. But the market barely dipped and already bounced back 1%. When fear is rising but prices refuse to reflect it, you're not seeing strength. You're seeing complacency. And complacency kills.

Look at the trash flying today. $TDIC up 126%. $RNWWW up 124% - that's the same ticker that was down 56% yesterday. $BZFDW up 119%. These are literal dumpster fires printing triple digits while inflation runs at 3.8% and Trump is on a plane to China begging for trade deals.

This isn't a healthy market. A healthy market pulls back 5-10%, shakes out the weak hands, and builds a base. What we have instead is a market that's so addicted to the bounce that it can't even take a breath. Every tiny dip gets bought instantly like there's no risk anymore.

That thread about the market "under reacting" to hot inflation is spot on. CPI at 3.8% and people are chasing $BWEN up 117%. Make it make sense.

The last time I saw this kind of relentless bid-under-everything was November 2021. We all know what happened next.

Fight me on this - am I just being a permabear or does this feel like late-stage euphoria to anyone else?

That FOMO thread today about selling picks too early hit me right in the gut. Because I used to be that guy. Made a great call, got out with 20%, watched it run another 80% without me. Kicked myself for weeks.

Here's what nobody tells you though - selling too early isn't your problem. Your problem is you don't have a system, so every exit feels wrong.

Let me explain what I mean. Look at $WOK. Two days ago it was up 203%. Today it's down 58%. If you sold at +100%, you probably felt like an idiot when it kept running. But right now? You're a genius. The guy who held for +203% is sitting on a loss.

This is the trap. You judge your trades by what happened after, not by whether your decision made sense at the time.

Think about it like leaving a party. You leave at 11pm and hear the party went until 2am and was legendary. Does that mean leaving at 11 was a mistake? Hell no. You didn't know how the night would end. You made a call with the information you had.

Same thing with trading. If your plan was to take profits at 30% and the stock runs to 80%, you didn't fail. You executed your plan. The fact that it kept running is irrelevant.

The real issue is most beginners don't have an exit before they enter. They buy something, it goes up, and then they're sitting there thinking "should I sell? should I hold? what if it goes higher?" That's not trading, that's hoping.

Here's what actually helped me. I write down my exit before I buy. Not a range, not "I'll see how it goes." A specific number. If $AEHL hits my target at +40%, I'm out. Don't care if it goes to +71% like it did today. My trade is done.

Because here's the thing - the alternative is holding until it turns into $RVPH down 55% or $DTSTW down 50%. Every "I sold too early" story has a twin where someone held too long and gave it all back.

The market is designed to make you feel wrong no matter what you do. Up 20% and you sell? It keeps running and you feel stupid. Up 20% and you hold? It drops and you feel stupid. You can't win emotionally.

But you can win mechanically. Have a plan. Execute the plan. Move on. Stop looking at the chart after you exit - that's just torture with extra steps.

The Fear & Greed at 34 right now tells me a lot of people are frozen. Scared to sell because what if it bounces. Scared to hold because what if it crashes further. That paralysis comes from not having a framework.

Your exit strategy doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to exist. A mediocre plan you actually follow will beat a perfect plan you abandon every time.

Anyone else struggle with this or have a system that actually works for taking profits? Always curious how other people handle the exit problem.

Fear just dropped to 42 and Trump is literally on a plane to Beijing right now trying to cut deals with Xi. This is the setup that divides every trader I know into two camps.

Side one: you buy here. The fact that he's bringing a massive delegation means they want something done. A trade deal announcement would send this market ripping. NASDAQ already proved it won't stay down - bounced 1% from session lows like it was nothing. You front-run the headline and ride the momentum. $BWEN up 117%, $TDIC up 126% - money is clearly flowing somewhere.

Side two: you sell into any strength. CPI at 3.8%, inflation accelerating, and we're relying on a Trump-Xi photo op to save the market? That's not a thesis, that's hope. Look at the losers today - $CGTL down 53%, $MVSTW down 47%. The garbage is finally getting flushed. This is what the start of a real pullback looks like, not a buying opportunity.

I keep going back and forth. On one hand, markets that don't drop on bad news usually rip higher eventually. On the other hand, sentiment falling 7 points in two days while prices hold up feels like a coiled spring ready to snap.

Nebius just reported 8x revenue growth and surged. AI money is still flowing. But is that enough to offset inflation running hot?

Which side are you on - buying this dip or selling the rip? And if you're buying, what's your stop?

Everyone's scratching their head about $MSFT being the only big tech name red YTD despite crushing earnings twice. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the chart because this setup is genuinely fascinating.

The key level right now is the $420-425 zone. That's where MSFT has bounced three times since February. Each time buyers stepped in. But here's the thing - the bounces are getting weaker. First bounce held for two weeks. Second bounce lasted maybe 10 days. This third one is already fading. That's a descending triangle forming and it's not bullish.

If $420 breaks convincingly on volume, the next real support is all the way down at $390-395. That's the gap fill from the January earnings pop. Would be roughly an 8% drop from current levels. Not catastrophic, but painful if you're sitting on a big position.

On the flip side, if MSFT can reclaim $440 and hold, this entire pattern was just a healthy consolidation before the next leg up. The earnings are there. Azure growth is real. Copilot revenue is starting to show up. Fundamentally this stock has no business being this weak.

So why is it weak? My theory is rotation. Money is flowing from "safe" mega-caps into the Intel and AMD types of the world. People want beta right now, not steady Eddie. When sentiment is at 48 and neutral, traders reach for higher risk/reward. MSFT doesn't give you that.

The guy holding from $60 AMD with no exit strategy should be paying attention to this. When a stock this strong goes nowhere for months despite perfect fundamentals, something bigger is happening beneath the surface.

I'm watching $420 like a hawk. Break below with volume and I think sub-$400 is in play fast. Hold and bounce and we might see $460 by summer.

What's your target for MSFT here? Anyone adding or is the dead money too painful?

Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April. Highest since May 2023. And the market's response? Sentiment at 49, basically shrugging it off like inflation isn't a problem anymore.

Am I taking crazy pills here?

We went from "inflation is transitory" to "inflation is back" and somehow the Fear & Greed index hasn't budged below neutral. Meanwhile $BOT is up 290% and $WOK is up 203% like we're in the middle of a bull run with zero macro concerns.

This is the same setup as early 2022. Inflation running hot, Fed behind the curve, retail chasing garbage names to the moon. We all know how that ended. CPI prints kept coming in hot, rate hikes accelerated, and the S&P dropped 25% in six months.

Or - and hear me out - maybe this time really is different. Maybe the market is pricing in AI productivity gains actually taming inflation over the next 12-18 months. Maybe 3.8% is the peak this cycle and the trend reverses from here.

I genuinely don't know which side is right. But the complacency is what scares me. When bad inflation news gets ignored entirely, that's when you get blindsided.

So which is it - is the market smart to look past this CPI print, or are we setting up for a painful reality check?

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Stay tuned for updates

That thread about "everyone in AI will be a winner" is the exact top signal I've been waiting for. Mark my words - by mid-June we see a 20-30% washout across AI-adjacent stocks that aren't NVIDIA or the mega-caps.

Here's my specific prediction: an AI stock basket (anything sub-$50B market cap calling itself an "AI play") drops 25% on average within 30 days. The weaker names lose 50%+.

Three data points backing this up.

First, look at what's happening beneath the surface. $BNCWZ was the hottest name two days ago, up 144%. Today? Down 51%. $POM cratered 85% in a single session. The trash is already getting flushed. When the speculative stuff implodes this fast, the "legitimate" AI names are next. Always works that way. The money flows from garbage to quality during the unwind.

Second, sentiment is fake-neutral at 47. Two days ago we were at 38. Now suddenly everyone's chill? Nah. That's not conviction, that's confusion. When sentiment whipsaws this hard, the next move is usually down. Real bottoms are processes, not two-day bounces. We haven't seen real capitulation yet - just the warmup act.

Third, the retail FOMO thread is your tell. "Anyone else feel mentally messed up seeing people make insane money on options?" That post existing means the late money has arrived. The people buying 0DTE calls because they saw someone print on Twitter. They're always the last ones in and the first ones blown out.

Look, AI is real. The technology is transformational. But the market is pricing in a 100% success rate for companies that have never turned a profit. That's not how this works. The AI hype cycle looks exactly like crypto in late 2021. Same narratives. Same "this time is different" energy. Same retail chasing green candles.

The winners will eventually emerge and go much higher. But first we gotta wash out the pretenders. And that process is going to be ugly.

RemindMe! 30 days

What's your take - am I too bearish here? Anyone actually buying AI dips right now?

Seen a bunch of people asking how the market can accept such a low forward P/E for $MU right now. Let me explain why - because the market is pricing in a memory cycle collapse and I think it gets worse before it gets better.

Here's my prediction: MU drops another 15% from current levels by mid-June. Could be faster if the broader market keeps deteriorating.

Three reasons.

First, Fear is at 38 and falling. We've been bleeding for days now. Look at what's happening - $BNCWZ went from +144% to -51% overnight. $POM cratered 85% today alone. The trash is getting flushed first but the selling pressure is spreading to real names. When sentiment is this bad, nobody cares about forward earnings multiples. They just sell.

Second, memory is a commodity business at the end of the day. MU's P/E looks cheap because Wall Street sees margin compression coming. AI hype drove massive demand for HBM and data center memory, but capacity is expanding fast. Samsung and SK Hynix aren't sitting still. When supply catches up to the AI demand spike, MU's pricing power evaporates. The smart money is already positioning for this.

Third, and this is the one nobody wants to hear - the AI infrastructure buildout might be hitting a temporary pause. We had the NVIDIA-IREN partnership announcement and what happened? Market barely cared. Fear still dropped. When the market ignores good news, that's a tell.

The thing about "cheap" stocks in a fearful market is they usually get cheaper. That forward P/E you're looking at? It's based on earnings estimates that haven't been revised down yet. When they do, suddenly MU isn't so cheap anymore.

I'm not saying short it or avoid it forever. Memory cycles turn and when they do, MU rockets. But right now the cycle is rolling over and catching a falling knife in a Fear regime is how you lose 20% trying to save 5%.

RemindMe! 30 days

What's your prediction for MU? Am I wrong here? Anyone actually buying this dip?

Everyone getting excited that sentiment recovered to 47 needs to calm down. Two days ago we were at 38. Now we're at neutral. Nothing changed. The macro didn't improve. Earnings didn't magically get better. We just had a couple green candles and people forgot what fear felt like.

This is exactly how bear market rallies work. Not saying we're in a bear market - honestly idk what we're in right now. But the whiplash from 38 to 47 in 48 hours tells me emotions are running this show, not fundamentals.

Look at the garbage running today. $SPKLW up 152%. $WGSWW up 140%. $AEHL up 135%. These are warrants and micro-caps with no revenue. The top five gainers are all essentially lottery tickets. Meanwhile $POM cratered 85% and $BNCWZ is down another 51% after being the darling two days ago.

This isn't a healthy market. This is a casino.

The thread about feeling mentally messed up watching people make insane money on options - that's the sentiment signal nobody talks about. When retail is FOMO-ing into options because they see others printing, we're closer to a top than a bottom. Every time. I remember the exact same posts in late 2021 before everything imploded.

And then there's the "everyone in AI will be a winner" thread. Spoiler alert: they won't be. The market is pricing in zero losers in AI right now and that's insane. Some of these companies will go to zero. The math doesn't work when you have 200 companies chasing the same TAM.

What actually bothers me is the Intel and AMD run. People chasing semis after the move already happened. Classic retail behavior - buy the top, hold the bag, complain on Reddit.

The play right now is patience. Let the market figure out what it wants to do. Sentiment bouncing between 38 and 47 every few days means nobody has conviction. Not even the algorithms.

Anyone else just sitting in cash waiting for a real signal? Or am I being too cautious here?

Alright so $INTC apparently just landed a deal with Apple to manufacture their chips. Wall Street Journal reported it. Stock is moving and everyone suddenly thinks Intel is back.

But I'm genuinely torn here and want to hear what you guys think.

The bull case is pretty compelling. Intel has been left for dead while NVIDIA and AMD ate their lunch. This Apple partnership is the ultimate validation. If Apple trusts Intel fabs enough to put them in iPhones and Macs, that's a signal the turnaround is real. You're buying a legacy giant at the bottom of a multi-year turnaround with actual revenue backing it up. These are the trades that make you rich if you're early.

The bear case - look at this market right now. Fear at 38. $BNCWZ was up 144% yesterday and today it's down 51%. $POM just cratered 85%. This market does not reward conviction. It pumps stories and dumps them 24 hours later. Intel has disappointed people for five straight years. One deal doesn't erase that. And Apple has switched manufacturers before when quality dropped.

Also the whole "Intel FOMO" thread trending tells me retail is piling in. That's usually not a great sign for timing.

So what's the play? Is this the start of a legit multi-year Intel comeback where you buy and hold? Or is this a news spike that fades by Tuesday?

I can see both sides honestly. Which way are you leaning and why?