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NIO Share Price Action - Past, Present and Future.
▲ 16 r/Nio

NIO Share Price Action - Past, Present and Future.

  1. $5 to $50 took 5 months last time. This time it will not take more than 30 trading days.

  2. Anything that happened after November 2021 is transient, temporary, should be viewed as loading phase only.

  3. Again, going back to All-time-high, anytime, any point soon - will not take longer than 1 month.

  4. NIO will become the #1 share in NYSE in daily trading volume. Reaching volumes of 400-500 million shares per day, some days close to 1B shares.

  5. Reprice and revaluation will be quick and powerful due to extreme chain of events, including heavy institute kick-in, liquidity squeeze, short squeeze, gamma squeeze and hype squeeze - forcing price up violently.

  6. NIO base price is $40, and this is the starting point, regardless of the price it is traded for today.

  7. Gamma pinning of NIO occurs because of two major (natural) issues: Huge belief in the company + Huge fear of risk -> leading to massive options volume - people and institute not buying the actual shares but buying options contracts. Market makers hedge against option trading, magnetizing NIO stock price around strike price. Unless anything big happens - pinning continues.

  8. NIO is heavily shorted, both in NYSE and HKEX. Any daily pressure at the first 10 minutes of trading is $50-100 million USD spent on shorting to bring NIO down, and to stay in the red color daily.

  9. Stock is mostly inert at the moment, no sellers, no buyers. Only silent loading by big institute, without moving the stock.

  10. Stock math is intrinsically compounding, exponential, proportional. Not arithmetic, linear. Our brain is linear. Compounding is non-intuitive. NIO share price should be viewed ONLY in logarithmic y-axis price, not arithmetic. True for any extreme growth company \ stock. That's why $5 to $50 "feels" impossible but the reality will be easy and fast. With logarithmic axis, the distance between $5 and $10 is the same as $100 and $200, representing the same work and market forces needed for such a move.

https://preview.redd.it/diawgu50wdbh1.png?width=1895&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce38376e32720c8d430f5f90e25be02a01741261

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u/XS016 — 19 hours ago
▲ 27 r/Nio

NIO & shorting.

  1. For many, many months - NIO was the #1 shorted stock on the Interactive Brokers platform.

  2. NIO daily shorting volume in HKEX is 70-80% (these days)

  3. NIO daily shorting volume in NYSE is 50%.

  4. 60 million USD spent each year on fake news, false information, bot comments, spamming, negative articles, negative headlines, regarding NIO.

  5. Citron CEO already charges by US legal department for fraud, also included a report about NIO.

  6. Each trading day in NYSE, 50 million USD are used to create a daily -3% right at the start.

Happened 11 consecutive days in November 2025 ("ai crash")

Happened 7 consecutive days pre Q1 ER.

So:

Never believe ANY negative data or opinion about NIO.

They are trying to force price down, they are trying to steal your holdings and assetts.

We are in a long shakeout before breakout zone.

Take in only positive news.

Only 13F filings.

BlackRock bought 5 million shares in Q1.

You can't fake that.

Bank of America bought 7 million shares in Q1.

Renaissnace Technologies bought 8 million shares in Q1.

(Smartest money in the world).

Stay safe.

Keep your position safe.

NIO is a $1T USD company.

reddit.com
u/XS016 — 22 hours ago
▲ 12 r/Nio

NIO & 13F

13F filings - are NOT fake.

Institutes that loaded silently during Q1:

BlackRock (almost 100% increase, bought 5 million shares)

BofA (100% increase, bought 8 million shares)

UBS (bank with the largest position in NIO)

Renaissance Technologies (100% increase, bought 7 million shares)

Morgan Stanley

JP Morgan

Deutsche Bank

None of them sold a single share during the 40% 2-week "crash" of NIO in November 2025, during the "AI Crash", when NIO experienced 11 consecutive days of -3% down pressure daily.

Total institute ownership thru that entire period stayed 320 million shares.

The big guys are getting ready for a huge kick-in and breakout.

13F filings is one of the only things you should believe.

https://preview.redd.it/jty5x3vphebh1.png?width=657&format=png&auto=webp&s=e80933f8cc3cb26192d1fe1231a25161d2498962

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u/XS016 — 17 hours ago
▲ 4 r/Nio

NIO & Negativity

If you hang out here and there, youtube, news, reddit, twitter - you will see negative comments, headers, opinions and reviews about NIO.

Is negativity around the company justified? 100% No.

Is negativity around the share price or action justified? 100% No.

Company? Not much needed to talk about.

Product is 100/100

Execution 100/100

Same for service, brande image, product catalog and pricing, management.

Everything is maxed out.

Share price?

The price was held for such a long period under or close to IPO price, that anyone with even average strategy or plan could average down below $10.

So who spark negativity?

  1. News and websites - paid by short institute. Focusing on any "bad" issue to highlight it and create micro panic events.

(Eletric-Vehicles.com, many more)

  1. Low vibration, low freq, victimized retail investors who are down big, and for a long time, professional sufferers. They also have no mental capacity for investing, strategy, plan, or market awareness.

  2. Youtubers paid by shorts, or shorting themselves (The Electric Viking.. many more)

  3. Youtuve coverers who pretend to be a NIO bull, so you feel they are in YOUR side, but actually push bad vibes, fear, panic and negative highlights.

  4. Retail shorts - the worst kind.

  5. Hedge funds like Citron - pushing fake bear "reports" to install fear and panic.

  6. Bank analysts, driven by paid management to create market sentiment and movement.

  7. Competing companies, paying influencers to put fake data, fake news or reviews.

  8. The ICE and petrol industry. No need to clarify on this..

  9. US institute - creating pressure on Chinese entities.

It is VERY important to ignore ANY negativity about NIO.

Focus on holding shares. Ownership.

NIO will become a profit monster soon.

A world leader.

A tech leader.

A production leader.

Mr. William Li is the most exciting, visionary and honest CEO in the world.

You better put your money on whatever he's working, and ditch any negative piece of data regarding NIO or its management.

Selling 1+ million EVs, premium price, not a single issue or complaint in the most difficult and demanding market in the world is a serious thing.

NIO currently has more orders per week than Tesla, in China. That says everything.

EV PEOPLE - love Tesla, as first movers.

PEOPLE - LOVE NIO.

NIO target ahead (as said by William Li) is selling 5 million cars per year.

Most of you probably missed out on that.

Ditch negativity, adopt positivity.

That's my honest advice for you.

reddit.com
u/XS016 — 21 hours ago
▲ 17 r/Nio

NIO share price & "value"

SO... I can't dive into too much explanations, and I can't educate all of the boys and girls here about investing, companies, the stock market and how the world works.

But.

I can say a few words about valuation and value.

First - where value (or share price) is NOT created:

  1. It's not created in the graphs.

  2. It's not created in the factory.

  3. It's not created in management meetings.

  4. It's not created by banks, sharks, hedge funds, shortists, states or algo-bots.

  5. It's not created by sales, or by financial performance.

Share price is created only in one place.

In the MIND of the investor, and even more precise - in the MIND of the OWNER.

Just like valuation of a company rise from thin air, it can disappear into thin air.

Algo bots can't function without the mind of the investor.

Even BlackRock can't function without the mind of the investor.

That's exactly why a massive buy or breakout hasn't happened yet.

If NIO had only one available share, and I would own it - I decide its value.

If ALL NIO shares holders believed today - in their MINDS, that NIO share is worth $100 - It would be $100 tomorrow. But this is certainly not the case (yet).

There will be a point in time, when this actually does happen.

And the MIND shift happens fast. It can take 1 day. 2 days. 3 days. Doesn't matter.

When this point arrives, way before the short squeeze, the gamma squeeze, the hype squeeze -

There will be a liquidity squeeze event.

At one point - All current owners will believe in something different than now.

At this point - The value of one single share in their MINDS - changes.

They no longer accept selling their shares below this price.

Because they BELIEVE the price in their MIND.

BELIEF is the core and main driver of decision and action.

BELIEF can come thru repetitive thoughts. a single thought, or a single event.

But only belief drives decision and action, and it happens through EXCITEMENT.

These are the core principles of our brain, dopamine, hormonal activity and nervous system.

When all of this strikes - Liquidity squeeze event will create a complete float lockdown.

All "available" shares are locked out of sale. NO ONE sells shares.

At the same stage, shorts, option traders, market makers, small and medium institute money - All rush to buy NIO shares. But they can't get any.

Then - share price gaps up - V I O L E N T L Y.

All squeeze types occur at the same moment.

Ladies and gentlemen.

I can guarantee 100% - The biggest firework, the biggest squeeze in the history of stock markets, since its inception - Amsterdam 1602 - will happen in NIO.

Regardless of anything you read here or there.

Regardless of any analyst coverage.

Any YouTube video.

Any fake bot comment

Any opinion.

The 100X of NIO will happen in the shortest period ever seen in any stock or any stock market.

If $5 to $50 took 5 months last time, it will take this time 2-3 weeks, MAX.

No decision time. No time for action.

If you didn't believe at $5 - you WILL believe at $50, and at $500.

People will NOT buy NIO at $5.

Many people will buy NIO at $50.

All of the people will buy NIO at $500.

Intrinsic market and investing psychology will NEVER change.

Core psychology and mental human wiring will never change.

reddit.com
u/XS016 — 1 day ago
▲ 4 r/Nio

Ask yourself...

Ask yourself what is "priced in" NIO current share price.

4000 swap stations? Completed 100 million swaps, performing 100k swaps daily? No.

1 million premium EVs sold with extremely high ASP? No.

Selling the biggest SUV EV in China at the quickest 120,000 record time? No.

Designing chips stronger and cheaper than Nvidia? No.

Not only non of NIO's work is priced in,

The share price stands $2 below IPO price as if the company never existed, or going bankrupt next week.

Ask yourself why NIO share price feels pinned or magnetized to 4-5-6.

This situation will not remain for long time.

reddit.com
u/XS016 — 1 day ago
▲ 22 r/Nio+1 crossposts

⚡ NIO Q2–H2: Margin consolidation and profit acceleration. From narrative to cash flow: NIO enters strong profit territory. NIO H2 2026: ~$476–$500M USD net income under assumptions of stable ASP and premium mix

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡ Regarding what Deutsche Bank said recently... Well, apparently ES8 sales reached 8,900 units in June... a number that could be interpreted as a slowdown, but we'll have to see if that's actually the case. According to the bank, several buyers have preferred to wait for the launch of the five-seater ES8, and it's also possible that there has been some cannibalization of sales from its "big brother," the ES9.

The company also mentions that this year, the gross margin attributed to other income (BaaS - Battery as a Service, Software and Subscriptions (SaaS), Ancillary Sales and After-Sales, etc.) will reach 20%. This improves the overall gross margin. In Q1, ES8 sales represented 54.14% of the total 83,465 vehicles delivered. Well, it's very difficult to expect to match that. In Q2, we would have 33,395 ES8s and about 11,000 ES9s. Taking the average selling price (ASP) of all three versions, 11,000 ES9s would be equivalent to selling about 15,000 ES8s. In a sort of cumulative total, that would give us about 49,000 ES8s for Q2. Therefore, the ASP for Q2 wouldn't be that far off from what was achieved in Q1. In Q2, it would represent 46% of total sales. The ASP in Q1, with that 54% for ES8s, was $39,570 per vehicle. Taking the company's average estimate that 70% of customers acquire their vehicles with BaaS, this would give an average selling price (ASP) for the ES8 of approximately $49,000 USD... In short... Approximate numbers for Q2 and a comparison with the previous two quarters:

Q4: $36,215 USD

Q1: $39,570 USD

Q2: $37,900 USD (estimated).

Decrease: $1,667 USD per vehicle (-4.2%).

Approximate vehicle revenue, $4.08 billion. To that, we would have to add other revenue that could be around $400-450 million... In Q4, where NIO earned $48 million in profit, the average revenue per vehicle (ASP) was $36,215. In Q2, there were 107,658 deliveries, which is 17,150 fewer sales compared to Q4, but the ASP is $1,700 higher per vehicle. Let's assume this is the revenue, which does not include other income. Let's take $420 million, which is an average of the other revenue from Q4 and Q1. This would bring the total to $4.5 billion in gross revenue. Operating expenses Q4/Q1: rigid cost structure. SG&A + R&D

Q4: $795.5M USD

Q1: $780.3M USD

Therefore, we also use this Opex for our estimate, which showed almost no variation in the last two quarters, Q4/Q1. With an estimated gross margin of 18% on revenue, that gives us $810M. Net profit could be around $30 million. As Deutsche Bank said, right at the break-even point. Each percentage point improvement in the gross margin would be about $45 million, which, less depreciation, would go towards net profit.

The conclusion of all this is that if the company maintains these operating costs and can continue optimizing the business, as it is in fact doing, even within this sales volume range of 40,000 monthly sales, to achieve favorable objectives it still depends on models like the ES8/ES9. That is, on models that can support an average selling price (ASP) that doesn't depreciate. Let's assume it manages to sell those 250,000 units in the second half of the year that we projected, maintaining this ASP of $38,000. This adds $900 million to the "other income" category and maintains a total gross margin of 19%. Let's assume an operating expense (Opex) of $1.5 billion for the entire semester. That would be approximately $10.4 billion in gross income, with a gross margin of $1.976 billion. From that, we subtract the $1.5 billion in Opex, operating costs, and... R&D... Net profit second half: $476 million. Tesla reported a net profit of $721 million in 2020. By then, it already had a market capitalization of $668.9 billion. Violent repricing? ...we'll see...

In any case, this helps us observe that:

The volume of deliveries should not fall below 250,000 units in the next 6 months. For reference, 211,878 vehicles were sold in the second half of 2025.

The gross margin should not fall below 18% if the company intends to achieve its first profitable fiscal year.

And the average selling price (ASP) should not be less than $37,000... In other words, NIO needs its high-end ES8/ES9 SUVs (F-segment).

u/InvestingLogic — 2 days ago
▲ 87 r/Nio+1 crossposts

Tired of the Gaslighting About NIO

Are you tired of the gaslighting on social media about NIO? It is genuinely psychotic that people are claiming NIO is a poorly run company. Claiming that Rivian is a better company. Claiming that Xpeng is a better company.

A company is not the stock and the stock is not the company.

NIO has a CAGR of 60%+, how many US companies are growing as fast as NIO. NIO has achieved operational profitability for two consecutive quarters, now going on three. NIO's ASP not only exceeds luxury BBA EVs, NIO is outselling luxury BBA EVs.

Unlike Tesla artificially generating profit by selling billions in carbon credits gifted from the US government, NIO has achieved profit by actually selling cars.

NIO achieved 107,658 deliveries in Q2 2026, Tesla only achieved 126,157 deliveries in Q2 2026 despite having a nearly 10 year lead and massive resources, massive capitalization, the full backing of the US government.

NIO sold 40,597 vehicles in one month. Rivian sold 42,247 vehicles given a full year.

Who is winning the top customer service awards? NIO. Who has the highest EV resale values? NIO. Who has the largest battery swap network in China? NIO.

NIO gen 5 battery swap stations charge an EV in about 90 seconds. BYD flash charging takes 10 minutes and gets your battery hot enough (170°F) to cook an egg.

The goal of anti-NIO trolls always seems to be to justify and rationalize the low stock price. Flooding social media with stupid comments about how "NIO dilutes stock" and "that's why the market capitalization is low", not the clear manipulation, or coordinated and active suppression.

Most of the attacks on social media by anti-NIO trolls lack any critical thinking, lack metrics and context, they're just "feels" and even lies. There are valid criticisms of NIO, but being a poorly run company is not one of them.

u/Active-Boat5641 — 2 days ago
▲ 29 r/Nio

NIO stock price ??…. It’s all about China

NIO stock price is totally disconnected from the company’s health , like most other Chinese companies . Just look at the HKSE chart and NIO chart for the last 3-4 months !

NIO , BABA ….are terribly undervalued for no reason, same as SNDK, PLTR, AMD, TSLA, MU…… etc are terribly overvalued for no reason .its just because the American financial mafia wants it that way !

u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople — 3 days ago