???? loss for words

I'm not sure what else NIO management can do at this point because they have focused on company performance, execution and real world results.

NIO achieved the top selling luxury EV in China's major markets. Whether it be battery swap records, chip success, NWM success, developments in robotics and AI, NIO is doing great as a company.

But no matter how well NIO does as a company, the goal post is constantly moved to explain why the stock market valuation is so low.

Since 2021 there were claims "NIO is going bankrupt". Well it's 2026 and NIO has not gone bankrupt so that was false.

When ONVO L90 sales were strong, there were claims that NIO will fail because "NIO main brand isn't selling".

When the NIO ES8 broke China's sales records for all EVs over 400,000RMB, there were claims that NIO will fail because "NIO main brand is cannibalizing ONVO"

A consistent attack has been that "NIO will dilute shares", but every fast growing company dilutes shares to fuel more growth. Dilution only matters if a company is struggling. NIO has 62% CAGR, outpacing most US tech companies.

When NIO posted a profit in Q4 2025, there were claims that NIO manipulated sales and pulled Q1 2026 sales forward to pad 2025 sales, and that Q1 2026 sales would collapse. NIO Q1 results proved those claims were false.

Even in Q1, traditionally the most difficult quarter for all Chinese EVs because of prior year's Q4 consumer fatigue and CNY, NIO posted an enormous earnings beat, revenue rocketed 112% YOY, margins have surged to a 4 year high. while competitors' margins are deteriorating. NIO's ASP has surpassed Audi and BMW.

Wall Street predicted a Q1 2026 loss of $0.24 per share and NIO destroyed that target with a profit of $9.7 million.

NIO's cash on hand increased to 48.2B RMB in 2026. Meaning the market is valuing NIO at less than 2X cash on hand.

The valuation of NIO makes no sense, 5 years of accusations and attacks against NIO have been proven to be lies. Despite fact and proof to the contrary, there are media people who falsely try to claim that NIO is fairly valued, overvalued or even worse, try to gaslight people that the stock isn't being artificially manipulated and suppressed.

Despite posting two consecutive quarters of massive sales growth, profit and earnings beats, NIO stock has actually declined from already low valuation, and trades at a 0.72 P/S like a company that is going bankrupt.

I have never seen such a severe divergence between the real world success and growth of a company with simultaneous horrible performance of the stock. NIO makes a great case study in stock manipulation for future MBA students or investigative journalists.

More than 50 million shares bought and sold before 10 A.M. I mean just wow!

https://preview.redd.it/61ut8y4q3i2h1.png?width=1320&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7289da02d442c3703e98d4558d763c6bc2e575a

Wow!! I was right!! NIO has a profit if 9,7 million!!! Way to go

Pre Market the stock was up 8% after a great earnings call, only to dip down 3%. Are there any bad news I'm missing for such a thing to happen? There has to be other factors right?

Being profitable in the slowest quarter of the year is unbelievable. Expensive main NIO brand cars are now the bigger portion of sales, solidly securing NIO’s leadership position in luxury EV segment.

Gigantic profit margin improvement YoY in the slow Q1 and even increasing from Q4 which had the highest volume of sales to date !

Revenue up 112 % YoY!! This is insane , not 30%, not 50%, MORE THAN DOUBLE at a time when EV sales are DOWN overall in China!

“Adjusted earnings per share came in at RMB0.02, outperforming analyst expectations for a loss of RMB0.34 per share.

Gross margin improved significantly to 19.0%, compared with 7.6% a year earlier and 17.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by improved operational efficiency and a stronger product mix.

For the second quarter, NIO forecast revenue of between RMB32.78 billion and RMB34.44 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of RMB31.83 billion.”

​

Daily Discussion Thread.
Keep it civil, stick to the rules.

NIO 4th qtr vehicle sales were 124k+ with 18.1% vehicle margin on Vehicle revenue of $4.52 billion on a total q4 revenue of $4.95 billion with total margin 17.5% . Meaning other sales were 435.3 million with other margin of about 11.9%

Projection on Q1 possible :
NIO 1st qtr 2026 vehicle sales (4.52b / 124,804 ) * 83465 = $3.3 billion approx plus other sales (let’s keep it same at 400 million)

Gross revenue = 3.3b plus 400mill = 3.73 billion.

Keeping gross margins the same and expenses the same we SHOULD See a same ratio profit (minus the cost of 100+ charging stations) so ..

I am projecting :
40 million * (3.73 / 4.95) = 30.44 million profit

Now subtract the extra 5th generation stations deployed 139 in q4 and in q1 2026 only 85 charging stations deployed. Accounting for increase in price I say

NIO has a 20-30 million profit.

The street expectations is 0.24/share loss. Q1 always being the lowest sales of the year, profit is not expected , hence the low street expectations.

However given 98% increase in sales in Q1 YoY and the cost cutting/much reduced R&D, NIO will may shock the markets by over 100 % beat in expectations (my gut feeling around 0.10-0.12 per share loss)

And next 3 Quarters certainly to be profitable , with all new launches (L80, ES9 plus upgraded existing models) kicking in Q2.

The last five days of Nio does not look like organic buying and selling with that clear right on open. A big sell off causing the stair stepping.

The annoying thing is if Nio surprise on earnings with strong guidance and good margins and beat on eps and revenue a 15% rise will take us just back to where we were due to the last 5 days. The whole sector is getting hammered.

Disappointment could risk falling below $5. That's after the first profitable quater and 77% growth year on year for 2025. The 98% growth for Q1 year on year in deliveries. Proberbly well over 100% revenue growth due to the ES8 asp

Daily Discussion Thread.
Keep it civil, stick to the rules.

Daily Discussion Thread.
Keep it civil, stick to the rules.

Two Sigma Investments disclosed significant changes to its EV holdings in its latest 13F filing for the first quarter of 2026.

The New York-based hedge fund operates through three distinct entities.

Two Sigma Investments and Two Sigma Advisers are both SEC-registered investment advisers that manage money for institutional clients using the firm’s quantitative, data-driven models — though they serve different fund structures and client mandates.

Two Sigma Securities, meanwhile, is the firm’s broker-dealer arm, focused on market making, liquidity provision, and algorithmic execution across equities, futures, and options.

Of the three, only Two Sigma Investments and Two Sigma Securities have reported its first-quarter 2026 portfolio so far.

According to Fintel data, Two Sigma Advisers held over 20.6 million Rivian shares as of its most recent filing, following an increase of 6.3 million shares during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Two Sigma Securities, on the other hand, exited its Rivian position entirely during the same period, selling all 37,203 shares and eliminating all call and put options.

Rivian

Two Sigma Investments reduced its position in Rivian for the second consecutive quarter, selling 3.65 million shares between January and March.

By the end of the first quarter, it held 9.5 million shares in the EV maker, a position valued at approximately $143.8 million as of March 31.

The New York-based quantitative hedge fund first disclosed a position in the EV maker in the fourth quarter of 2022, with 148,696 shares worth approximately $2.7 million.

It grew the stake to 856,491 shares by the end of the first quarter of 2023 before fully liquidating in the second quarter.

Two Sigma re-entered the stock in the third quarter of 2023 with 5.7 million shares and quickly scaled to nearly 11 million shares by year-end — a position then valued at roughly $257.5 million.

The fund again fully exited in the first quarter of 2024, before opening a new position of almost 2.6 million shares during the first three months of 2025.

That position grew rapidly through the first half of 2025, reaching 14.4 million shares by the end of June.

The stake then peaked in the third quarter at nearly 16.8 million shares.

Institutional Ownership

As of Tuesday, Nasdaq data showed Rivian has 934 institutional shareholders, collectively holding 777.5 million shares in the EV maker.

The company led by RJ Scaringe has been primarily backed by Amazon, which first invested in the company in 2019.

The retail giant has held approximately 158 million shares in the EV maker since.

Recently, Volkswagen Group has overtaken Amazon as Rivian’s largest shareholder.

The German giant now holds 209.8 million Class A common shares, representing a 15.9% stake — up from 146 million shares as of mid-2025.

UBS, which ranks in the top 20 largest institutions, reduced its Rivian holdings by 26.4% in the first quarter of 2026 to just below 10.3 million shares.

Deutsche Bank also trimmed its Rivian position for the second straight quarter, holding 1,879,129 shares at the end of March — its lowest level since mid-2024.

Among its major institutional shareholders, Baillie Gifford has also updated its portfolio with a slight increase of 40,145 shares in a stake of over 43.8 million.

Citigroup reported that it closed the first quarter holding 8,674,247 Rivian shares — a 12.1% cut after selling approximately 1.19 million shares between January and March.

BlackRock disclosed last week a stake of nearly 54 million shares in the EV maker, after acquiring 3.5 million shares during the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs purchased over 3 million shares in the company between January and March, closing the quarter holding 8.9 million shares — a record position for the firm.

Nio

The investment arm of Two Sigma’s stake in the Shanghainese EV maker Nio has jumped from 679,000 shares to 13.3 million shares during the first quarter.

The stake was worth $80.3 million by March 31.

It represents the largest position Two Sigma Investments has ever held in the Chinese company, in which it first invested in the third quarter of 2018.

By then, the fund disclosed holding 510,428 shares — worth about $3.6 million. However, it fully exited the position by year-end.

It re-entered briefly in early 2019 with a small stake of 17,690 shares before liquidating again in the third quarter.

Two Sigma Investments briefly entered the stock with 254,800 shares owned during the final quarter of 2019.

Then, it came back in mid-2020 with 559,023 shares and rapidly scaled up through Nio‘s stock surge — with its stake reaching 4 million shares, worth $197.8 million by year-end.

From there, Two Sigma steadily reduced through 2021, then made a dramatic move in early 2021 — when it held 5 million shares — before slashing them by 83% to 856,765 shares one quarter later, and exiting entirely by year-end 2022.

The pattern repeated in the following year and a half.

Two Sigma re-entered again in the second quarter of 2024 with 395,000 shares and held a flat position of 540,800 shares through mid-2025.

After another full exit in mid-2025, the fund rebuilt its stake to 480,300 shares between July and September, and ended the year with 679,000 shares.

Two Sigma Securities disclosed holding 50,636 shares in Nio during the first quarter, a 52.6% reduction from the prior quarter.

Two Sigma Advisors, which hasn’t yet reported its quarterly portfolio update with the SEC, held 5.5 million Nio shares by the end of 2025.

Institutional Ownership

According to Nasdaq, Nio has 519 institutional owners with combined holdings of approximately 288 million shares.

CYVN Holdings remains the Chinese EV maker’s main backer with a stake of nearly 20%.

At the end of 2025, DE Shaw & Co was the largest institutional holder after CYVN with over 48 million shares, while BNP Paribas and Jane Street Group each held around 20 million.

First-quarter filings paint a different picture.

DE Shaw sold nearly 10 million shares between January and March, a 20% cut that brought its position to 38.3 million shares — currently valued at approximately $225 million.

The firm remains Nio‘s top institutional holder outside CYVN, despite the reduction.

BNP Paribas shed 8 million shares during the same period, ending March with 13.3 million — a 38.3% decrease.

Jane Street Group made the sharpest move among Nio‘s former top holders, slashing its stake by 71.9% to 5.5 million shares and falling well outside the top 10.

The selling was not uniform across institutions, however.

BlackRock moved in the opposite direction, nearly doubling its Nio position with a 92.2% increase to 10.73 million shares.

Bank of America similarly expanded its stake during the quarter — reaching a new high of 14.3 million shares.

Nio reports first-quarter financial results later this week, on May 21.