r/NoMemesJustMoney

I work with and talk to a lot of newer investors every day and this constant “sky is falling” narrative is one of the worst things for long term wealth building.

Every cycle it is the same story.

“The crash is here.”
“It’s over.”
“Cash out before it gets worse.”

Meanwhile a lot of the people screaming doom online are quietly making money in the market themselves.

I have lived through the dot-com crash, 2008, Covid, rate panic, bank panic, inflation panic and more “this time is different” headlines than I can count.

Yet the market still went on to make new highs.

Time in the market beats timing the market more often than people want to admit.

The biggest mistake many investors make is letting fear talk them out of opportunities during the exact moments wealth is usually built.

NextEra Energy is buying Dominion Energy in an all-stock deal valued at ~$67 billion — 0.8138 NEE shares per D share plus a pro rata slice of a $360 million one-time cash payment at close.

Implied value per D share at Friday's NEE close: ~$76.18.

D up 14.5% pre-market. NEE absorbs the dilution.

The strategic read: this is an AI infrastructure trade dressed in utility clothing. Data centers need power. Lots of it. NEE just acquired the transmission and distribution spine running through Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina — ground zero for hyperscaler buildout.

Combined entity serves ~10 million customer accounts, runs a $138 billion regulated rate base growing at an 11% clip through 2032. World's largest regulated electric utility by market cap.

The regulatory gauntlet is real — FERC, NRC, three state commissions, two shareholder votes. Timeline is 12 to 18 months. NEE put up a $4.83 billion termination fee tied to regulatory failure. That's not a rounding error. They want this deal.

Watch NEE's open. The implied D value moves tick for tick with it until close.

Word is Marty Makary is getting the ax. Politico's Rachel Bade dropped the scoop May 6, two well-placed sources expressed confidence Makary is on borrowed time. Bloomberg ran the "paranoia, turmoil and backlash" deep dive a day earlier.

The political driver is flavored vapes. Trump wants them approved, Makary blocked the agenda, White House insiders now call him a thorn.

The biotech driver is messier. Sanofi just yanked Tzield from the Commissioner's National Priority Review program after a high-level disagreement. That is a public humiliation of Makary's flagship program. Replimune's RP1 melanoma rejection lit up the industry over single-arm trial pushback.

Vinay Prasad already exited CBER end of April. Atara's Ebvallo got a positive Type A meeting one week later, FDA agreed a single-arm study with appropriate historical control could support approval. The reversals are already starting.

What it means for the M&A Hunter universe

Randomized trial designs get a relative bid. Single-arm submissions face structural headwinds. Companies that built proper Phase 3 randomized programs are insulated. The OnPrime/GOG-3076 type structure becomes the gold standard.

Cell therapy and gene therapy get a tailwind. The Atara reversal is the template. Post-Prasad, the agency is already walking back some of the most aggressive denials. If Makary follows him out, more reversals likely.

Q3-Q4 PDUFA dates carry transition risk. Leadership change in the middle of a review window can cut either way. Industry-friendlier commissioner, neutral to positive. More restrictive RFK Jr. pick, short-term overhang. PDUFA dates in August through November are the ones to watch.

The bigger pattern

Makary came in promising speed. Industry got blindsided by setbacks. Internal staff describe culture clashes. The agency that approves your drug needs to be predictable. Right now it is anything but.

Watching this closely.

DO NOT CHASE THE NEWS Trim crazy pops