The Coalition and Labor have each recorded their lowest support in NSW in recent memory. Almost half of the state’s voters have told pollsters they will abandon the major parties at next year’s election.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows support for the two major parties has dropped to its lowest since at least November 2021.

Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane’s Coalition and NSW Premier Chris Minns’s Labor Party both went backwards in the most recent Resolve Political Monitor.Marija Ercegovac

The poll shows support for the Kellie Sloane-led Coalition languishing at just 23 per cent, down three points from the previous result. At the same time, Chris Minns’s Labor government also fell by three points, to 29 per cent, its equal worst result since the 2023 election.

The main beneficiary was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Despite recent federal polling showing support for the anti-immigration, far-right party tailing off after its recent surge, 25 per cent of the poll’s 1100 respondents in NSW said they would vote for the party if an election was held today.

The rapid move away from the two major parties, just eight months before the next state election, makes for sober reading for both sides.

Overall, 48 per cent of voters said they would vote for a non-major party, with the Greens up 1 point to 11 per cent and 12 per cent nominating independents or other parties.

The polling comes from two occasions, in mid-June and mid-July, either side of the Labor government’s no frills pre-election budget, and the announcement by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption of its probe into an allegedly corrupt donation scheme involving Liberal Party apparatchiks.

The latter has produced a string of negative headlines about the Coalition, and led to the resignation of its leader in the NSW upper house, Damien Tudehope, who had been called as a witness to the inquiry and had close relationships with some of the Liberal Party figures in the ICAC’s sights. Tudehope has not been accused of any wrongdoing, however.

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At the same time Chris Minns’s rating as preferred premier fell two points from 38 per cent to 36 per cent, though he retained a commanding lead over the opposition leader –Sloane’s rating dropped from 18 per cent to 16 per cent.

Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the flurry of news about the ICAC inquiry could have hurt both major parties.

“There have been a number of political scandals in the last few weeks, and they tend to tar all politicians with the same brush, which is why we’re seeing both major parties drop,” he said.

“The difference now is that we have a third force in One Nation, who actually benefit from this because they are anti-institutional, anti-elite. They are seen by some as the alternative and the solution.”

The poll also reflected public debate over shark numbers after a swimmer was mauled by a great white shark at Coogee Beach.

The attack prompted Premier Chris Minns to announce extra funding for shark-detecting drones to fly year-round as part of an enhanced protection program for beachgoers, while not ruling out the potential for a bull shark cull if a population count showed waterways were being “overrun” by the animals.

In July, the Resolve Monitor polled voters on their attitude to shark mitigation measures. Aerial drone surveillance was by far the most popular: 62 per cent of respondents believed drones were sufficient; 47 per cent favoured shark nets; 40 per cent supported helicopter spotting; and just 20 per cent thought a cull was acceptable.

In the state survey, One Nation’s increased primary vote diverged from recent federal polling that showed the party’s vote falling after a rapid rise. The 25 per cent support in June and July marks a three point bump from the previous survey, in April and May.

Since the start of the year, the primary vote for both major parties has fallen dramatically.

In January, NSW Labor recorded a primary vote of 37 per cent, a figure largely static since the middle of 2025, but the party’s vote has cratered since then. The latest Resolve figure is the second time the Minns government’s ratings have fallen below 30 per cent this year – it recorded the same result in March.

The Liberals have fared just as poorly, falling five points from a primary vote of 28 per cent in November before Kellie Sloane was elected to replace Mark Speakman.

The White Australia Policy was explicitly and systematically racist. Historic concensus from institutions like the National Museum of Australia and the Parliamentary Education Office identifies it as a collection of race-based laws built on contemporary beliefs of white superiority.

So, with the White Australia policy being explicitly racist, what does she mean when she was talking to convicted felon, anti-muslim, far right wing activist Tel Aviv Steve aka Tommy Robinson aka Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, claiming that the end of it was the beginning of migration issues in Australia?

Support for Pauline Hanson’s party has fallen for the first time in four months and shifted to the Coalition as women and immigrants turn their backs on the One Nation leader over key elements of her policy agenda.
An exclusive Resolve Political Monitor poll shows support for One Nation has slipped three points in July to 26 per cent while support for the Coalition has risen by the same amount to 23 per cent. Labor support was steady at 28 per cent while the Greens were unchanged at 12 per cent.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is ahead of One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor as preferred prime minister. MARIJA ERCEGOVAC
One Nation enjoyed a five-point surge in support in June, with the party more popular than either the Coalition or Labor. Hanson was the preferred prime minister, her support being double that of Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.
But after a month in which Hanson delivered her first speech to the National Press Club and outlined policies including her support for an Australian “monoculture”, key metrics of her personal standing also slipped in the poll of 2252 people taken between July 6 and 11.

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Anthony Albanese was preferred prime minister among 33 per cent of those surveyed, a four-point lift, while the figure increased by five points for Angus Taylor, who hit 21 per cent. Hanson’s support tumbled by eight points to 25 per cent.

Albanese’s performance was rated as good by 39 per cent of respondents, a four-point lift over June and his best rating since December. Voters also lifted their rating of Taylor, up by three points to 41 per cent. Hanson, included for the first time in this question, was highest rated at 45 per cent.
But the One Nation leader suffered a steep fall in her likeability rating, which reached 14 points in June. It fell to three points in July, while support for One Nation (from 16 to eight points) and Barnaby Joyce (plus one point to minus two) also slipped.
In June, 28 per cent of respondents believed Hanson would lead One Nation to victory at the next federal election compared with 34 per cent who expected Albanese to remain in power. This month, expectations of a One Nation government have slumped to 19 per cent while 35 per cent expect Albanese to remain in The Lodge. Just 18 per cent believe the Coalition is on track for victory.

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Despite the swings in primary support between the Coalition and One Nation, the overall political landscape has not changed. Labor is still in front of both conservative parties on a two-party-preferred basis.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed said there had been a shift away from Hanson among key demographics over the past month, including among people born overseas, people aged between 18 and 34, and those in full employment.
“The two largest losses for [Hanson] are among immigrants and females, and suggest her comments in areas like multiculturalism and abortion have shown One Nation to be the party of old after all. Mutton dressed as mutton, in policy terms,” he said.

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“All are signs the varnish has come off a little.”
The poll shows voters support some of Hanson’s key policy pronouncements. Half agreed with her claim that many young workers were lazy, compared with just 23 per cent who disagreed, while 53 per cent supported her argument that the nation’s immigration settings were wrong.
Hanson’s concerns about the priorities of the NDIS (72 per cent) and that poverty was a serious problem that needed to be addressed by the government (73 per cent) were also strongly supported.

But more people (39 per cent) disagreed with her view that Australia would be better off if it was “monocultural” (33 per cent support), while her attacks on the SBS, the ABC and the United Nations were backed by only a minority of respondents.

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Pressed on Hanson’s monoculture plan, Joyce said on Sunday that he did not believe in multiculturalism, while linking the issue to the Incan empire of pre-Columbus South America.
“You’re multi-ethnicity, you’re multi-religion, there’s a whole range of that, but to be in Australia, you have to come to the point of an Australian culture, and I stick to that,” he told Sky News.
“And maybe being a little bit trite, but as an example, Incas had a culture – they believed that you chop people’s heads off, roll them down the outside of the temple, pull out their beating heart, and the sun rises. Now that’s a culture – it’s just completely and utterly intolerable.”
But Education Minister Jason Clare said One Nation and the Coalition were in denial about the strength of multiculturalism and its important role in Australia.

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“I tell little kids when I go to primary school – you get to do that a bit as education minister – that Australia’s a bit like a fruit salad,” he said.
“We all like apples and oranges and bananas, but they’re better when they’re all together. And that’s Australia. We’re not all the same, but we all get on and work together.”
Hanson also argued it should be easier to sack people. While 32 per cent of those surveyed supported her view, 36 per cent opposed it.
Reed said there was support for Hanson on some key issues, but not all.
“They draw the line when she mixes these themes with sacking people, multiculturalism, scrapping SBS, as well as focusing on abortion, the UN,” he said.

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In a problem for Taylor, the Coalition is still ranked below Albanese and the government on key measures including whether it is a better communicator, has a united team, is honest and trustworthy and is best for the country.