r/OptionsResearch

SemiAnalysis went after IREN on Wednesday. In posts on X, it said users call IREN's British Columbia data centers "The #1 worst site in the industry," citing "multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures." IREN is down about 14% in two days, and the whole neocloud group fell with it today.

Here's what I think people are missing:
• The criticism is about the Canadian sites. SemiAnalysis said IREN's Texas campuses "look much better."
• Microsoft's $9.7 billion contract with IREN runs at Childress, Texas, one of those Texas campuses.
• SemiAnalysis expects Nvidia's planned $2.1 billion investment in IREN to help it "cut fewer corners."
• CoreWeave and Nebius had no company news of their own today. Their drop lines up with the 10-year yield near a 24-year high, not with anything SemiAnalysis said.

And someone is already buying it. At 12:43 today, with IREN near $36, someone paid about $2 million for next week's IREN calls at the ask, in one second.

Overreaction, or is SemiAnalysis right? Anyone scooping on this dip or do you think the OpenAI revenue “shock” will drive things lower?

GameStop has about 59 million warrants that expire on October 30. Each one lets you buy a share at $32. If every warrant is used, GameStop raises about $1.9 billion.

GameStop closed Thursday at $24.11. Here's what the same bet cost two ways at Thursday's close:
- The warrant: about $2.15
- A regular $32 call expiring October 30: about 35 cents

Same strike, same day, about six times the price. Options traders give GameStop about a 1 in 11 chance of finishing above $32 by then.
Part of the gap is that the warrants are hard to short, so it can last. But if you hold them, check the listed call before you add more.

Anyone still holding the warrants? Do you think they could explode in value?