r/POETTechnologiesInc

I’m hearing a lot of people say they’re hoping for $26-$30 or more by the end of the year. My realistic thought is Possibly $18 by the end of the year. And even if they do reach 18 by the end of the year, it will soon consolidate back down to the $16 range or so. You have to keep in mind that all the hopes and dreams that a lot of people have of this company that they could possibly even achieve in the next 12 to 16 months, The market has pretty much almost already priced just about all of that in to its current price ratio. Don’t forget about all the shared dilution gentlemen and ladies. I have a lot of shares as well and I really want this thing to go to the moon, but we have to be realistic. If they can scale and follow through and meet their current $50 million deal. That could turn into a $500 million deal. Then they will have a leg to stand on to even justify the price that we currently have right now. But that is the deal that needs to be sealed so that other companies want to make big deals that are even bigger than this one. And that’s when you see the stock move which in my opinion if that happens, you’re talking another two years out. And then we could be sitting in the $65-$80 range. But remember that if an only if everything goes absolute perfect. And we cannot forget that we are asking for every single thing to go perfect from now going forward, and we’re asking this from a company who has done nothing perfect in the past couple years. They have dropped the ball left and right. And can’t forget as well that we’re talking about a company that has diluted shares about seven times and the last year or so. So just be aware that even once this thing does start climbing fast, they are going to dilute the heck out of shares multiple times over. I’m not being a downer. I’ve been in poet for a long time and have thousands of shares. I’m just being realistic.

https://preview.redd.it/1rvc02em60kh1.png?width=1493&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e3b9acd3b670b6399f387e3f847721b2e193941

Dear POET holders,

I have been thinking in investing in this company.

I have done some reading but I have difficulty understanding what the company actually does and where they stand along other companies such as LITE. is their technology proven?

also, can someone explain what happened with MRVL?

lastly, what makes you confident this is a buy

Buried in the Outlook section of today's Q2 release, after all the Tier 1 and Lumilens bullets everyone's posting about, is the most informative sentence in the document: POET will "make additional announcements and updates in September, subject to the prevailing confidentiality agreements."
Read that phrasing carefully. This is a company that got 47% of its market cap vaporized in April because its CFO talked about a customer relationship the customer wanted quiet. Now every public word goes through counsel — and they're openly telling us the constraint exists: we have news; NDAs decide what we can say and when.
Two takeaways: (1) Silence ≠ nothing happening anymore. Pre-Marvell POET announced everything instantly, so quiet meant empty pipeline. Post-Marvell, real wins may be contractually unnameable — see today's deliberately anonymous "Tier 1 laser company." (2) They just handed us a dated catalyst window: September. That's not hype cadence, that's a company scheduling disclosures around what its agreements permit.
The irony: the muzzle that came from their worst blunder might be the most bullish structural change here — for once the market might find out about a win after it's real instead of three years before

https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/viewInstance/resource.html?node=W471&drmKey=f696288a8e67b339&drr=ss5767dd60a1013274246dd92186f7e0927c7a9911c0d5673473dcddd49b90ad7c34c0c2a0a8f0f9525750e032f431b32bux&id=0c11f8b7998bcd9693007fae9ed64bfcb90cc13fa9c31d25

Manufacturing

To address the challenge of producing devices in the large quantities needed by customers in the high-volume data communications industry, and in keeping with our "fab-light" strategy, POET has entered into agreements with Globetronics Manufacturing, Sdn. Bhd. and NationGate Solution (M) Sdn. Bhd. to establish and maintain optical engine assembly and test operations in Malaysia. Both companies are prominent manufacturers of electronic devices and equipment located in Penang, Malaysia and are ideal manufacturing partners for POET. In our Globetronics clean room of approximately 10,000 square feet, we have installed all our wafer-level processing equipment in a production line that has the capacity to produce 1 million optical engines annually. We are now installing specialized equipment dedicated to light source production into a cleanroom of comparable size within the NationGate facilty.

Our detailed assessment of our production needs and our desire to mitigate the geopolitical risk in China supported our relocation to Malaysia. We determined that we could not achieve full operational control of Super Photonics Xiamen (SPC) in the context of any joint venture. The first phase of transition out of China involved the transfer of all our production equipment to Globetronics and NationGate, a phase that has been completed. The second phase was the dissolution of the joint venture with Sanan IC, which has also been completed with that operation now permanently closed. Following completion of the final audit and the filing of certain documents with the Chinese authorities, the final stage will be the winding-up of that company, which we expect to complete within the next few months.

Our Strategy

Our vision for the Company is to become a global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying products based on our Optical Interposer technology, optical engine designs and optical modules over a broad range of vertical market applications. Our Mission for the Company is to establish an industry leadership position based on the "semiconductorization" of photonics, producing validated, disruptive, IP protected products globally.

The following is our strategy to achieve our vision and mission for the Company:

• Ramp production capabilities at GMSB and NationGate.
POET's agreements with GMSB and NationGate in Malaysia supports its vision and mission by establishing wafer-level manufacturing, reducing reliance on China, and enhancing supply chain resilience. The partnerships enable POET to scale production efficiently, leveraging their expertise in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing to meet growing demand in the optical interconnect market. These collaborations enhance POET's operational control, ensuring high-quality standards, faster production, and better supply chain management. It also opens doors to key global markets, strengthening POET's position as a leader in optical solutions for data communications and Al technologies.

• Engage with industry leaders and incumbents.
We will continue to promote the potential of the Optical Interposer and POET-designed Optical Engines to solve critical challenges with current approaches to data transfer in data center and telecom applications, especially to those hyperscale data centers implementing large-scale Al applications. We believe that the size, performance and design flexibility of POET's chip-scale approach to integration and to the rapid introduction of successive product generations is an enabling technology that will allow POET to enter markets where relatively few competitors will have the requisite technology to succeed.

• Transition to making Optical Transceiver Modules for direct sales to end-users.
In addition to adding features to the Optical Interposer, we have added essential electronic components, such as Trans Impedance Amplifiers (TIAs) and laser drivers to the interposer platform, which improves performance and lowers the cost of module assembly. We intend to add the necessary capabilities for design and development optical transceiver modules, either through internal development or in collaboration with other companies. Being most familiar with the unique capabilities of our technology, we believe that we are in a position to rapidly extend our expertise to complete optical modules. In addition, we want to own key components. Starting with our internally designed and developed hybrid laser, we intend to develop or acquire components with differentiated performance to include in our modules. Doing so has the advantage of avoiding a lengthy sales and qualification cycle (i.e., selling to module makers who then sell to end users) and being able to sell directly to end users, showcasing our own branded products to network equipment suppliers and data center operators. However, so as not to compete with our optical module customers, our current plan is to sell our optical modules, once developed, into niche rather than mainstream applications.

• Pursue complementary strategic alliance or acquisition opportunities for inorganic growth.
We intend to evaluate and selectively pursue strategic alliances or acquisition opportunities for growth and vertical integration that we believe will accelerate our penetration of specific applications or vertical markets with our technology or products.

• Explore technology licensing opportunities for growth in non-target sectors.
It is not possible for the Company to pursue all potential applications for the POET Optical Interposer. We will carefully consider opportunities to license our technology to others when and if appropriate.

I just went through the Lumentum earnings call, and wanted to share my thoughts for long term investors like myself. Full disclosure I had ChatGPT summarize these thoughts:

IMO the important part isn't that LITE crushed earnings. It's what management said about where optical networking is going.
A few things jumped out:
• 1.6T is ramping now — LITE had record 800G shipments and is already ramping 1.6T. Demand remains extremely strong.
• Supply is struggling to keep up with demand. Management basically said they're still shipping behind customer demand, particularly for high-power lasers/EMLs.
• CPO/NPO is becoming more real. LITE said its lead CPO customer's demand signal has actually increased, and management called CPO the natural end-state of the technology roadmap.
• NPO is accelerating. LITE already has its first external-light-source module purchase order, with delivery expected in H2 2027. They see broader NPO/CPO deployments around 2027–28.
• Most importantly, management described these newer NPO/CPO opportunities as additive to the existing optical market rather than simply replacing today's products.
Why does this matter for $POET?
POET's whole thesis is basically: AI keeps driving bandwidth higher → power becomes a bigger constraint → optical needs to move closer to the compute → increasingly integrated optical engines/interposers become valuable.
LITE just independently validated basically that entire trajectory.
Obviously this doesn't prove POET wins any particular customer. LITE is a competitor and will capture plenty of this growth itself. But it does make the market POET is trying to enter look increasingly real, urgent, and enormous.
And now I'm VERY interested in what COHR says tomorrow. If Coherent independently confirms accelerating 1.6T demand + increasing NPO/CPO adoption, that's a much stronger validation of the POET thesis because we're hearing the same thing from multiple major optical players.
That's the part I'd be watching tomorrow — not just whether COHR beats EPS.

This is for long term investors, not really for day traders. Overall I'm very excited about recent earnings in the space of optics, particularly as it relates to PEOT. The most recent from Coherent:

The copper-to-optical trade just got its third confirmation in eight days (AAOI, LITE, now COHR). The demand is real, it's contracted, and it's accelerating.

COHR Q4 FY26: Beat-and-raise, and the raise is the story

• Revenue $2.05B, +34% Y/Y (+42% pro forma) — came in at the very top of guidance and ~$55M above consensus
• Datacenter & Comms: $1.615B, +59% Y/Y, +19% Q/Q. Now ~79% of the company. This is acceleration, not just growth
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.74 vs $1.62 consensus — above the top of their own guide ($1.52–1.72)
• Non-GAAP gross margin 40.2%, +215 bps Y/Y, marching toward the 42% Investor Day target
• FY26 totals: revenue $7.12B (+22.5%), non-GAAP EPS $5.61 vs $3.53 (+59%) — EPS growing more than 2x revenue
• The guide: Q1 FY27 revenue $2.2–2.4B ($2.3B midpoint = +12.5% sequential, ~45% Y/Y) and EPS $1.85–2.05. They just printed $1.74 and are guiding the next quarter's floor above it
• Balance sheet reset: mezzanine equity gone (preferred converted, dividend drag eliminated), ~$2B cash + short-term investments, NVIDIA partnership intact
• CEO quote says it all: entering FY27 with "exceptional customer demand" as AI datacenters "transition from copper to optical connectivity"

Lumilens has a multi billion dollar agreement with a “top 2” hyperscaler, therefore, either Amazon/AWS or Microsoft/ Azure.
Their initial product (2026) is “actively aligned” transceivers (w/o POET optical engines).

Future fulfillment (2027+) will demand millions of transceivers, and possibly NPO/CPO.

The 5 year/$500M POET/Lumilens supply agreement will likely be a multiple of that figure as POET platform/OEs will become the primary access to supply at scale, and not just for this customer.

POET has already proven to the satisfaction of this hyperscaler that they have the ability to scale at millions, precisely in sync with projected demand, or the hyperscaler would not have committed to a nascent supplier like Lumilens.

This relationship alone will justify a $5B+ POET market cap. Lumilens is already valued at $5.5B.

Lumilens is a single POET customer. Many more under agreement, many other products to be introduced beyond 1.6T, (Blazar/Starlight ELS, 3.2T, NPO/CPO….).

$400M invested in POET at $21 per share at the time of the announced agreement. <$9 now.