r/Polymarket

Does anyone know how to make these systems? Ive been trying to make one on Claude Code but they fail miserably because most of the info that comes from the API isnt as clear as the website. I will try using openclaw but does anyone have any tips for polymarket bots?

Polymarket partnered with Nasdaq to add private company markets — IPO timing, valuations, secondary activity. 1,600+ unicorns, $5T+ in potential markets.

Most people will bet blindly. But the edge here is the same as always — information asymmetry.

A few angles worth watching:

IPO timing markets — insiders and employees have a rough idea of timeline. Watch for sudden volume spikes on specific companies.

Valuation markets — last funding round is public. The question is whether market sentiment has shifted since then.

The trap: these markets will have low liquidity early. Wide spreads will kill you if you try to exit before resolution.

What company would you actually bet on first?

I'm starting to notice something over the last week or so. When the model narrows its focus to a single sport, it tends to run hotter. Today was another example of that.

Day 29 was all MLB. Five trades, five wins, +$24.60. The model didn't touch anything else - no NBA, no other sports. Just baseball.

The best part? Every single trade was positioned at mid-range pricing. Nothing crazy expensive, nothing desperate underdogs. Just clean opportunities:

Arizona Diamondbacks at 40c, 10 contracts, +$6.00. That's the kind of win that compounds over time - not flashy, just solid. Washington Nationals at 50c, 10 contracts, +$5.00. Minnesota Twins at 54c, 10 contracts, +$4.60. All of them hit.

The pattern I'm seeing: when the model is scanning one sport in depth instead of jumping between multiple markets, the win rate gets tighter. Fewer trades overall, but a higher hit rate. It's the opposite of diversification spreading you thin - it's focus actually translating into better accuracy on Polymarket's sports contracts.

The real money account is now at $87.25, up from $10. That's 773% in 29 days. The paper account is still down 3% at $967, which keeps me honest about variance and sample size. Two very different stories from the same model.

All-time record is 127W-120L (51% win rate) across 247 trades. The win rate isn't impressive on paper, but Kelly sizing means the model is betting bigger on higher-confidence spots, so the wins compound faster than the losses drag.

Curious if this single-sport focus pattern holds or if it's just noise. Either way, today was clean.

Day 29 Stats (MLB only): Today: 5W-0L, +$24.60 Real money: $87.25 (+773%) Paper: $967 (-3%) All-time: 127W-120L, 51% WR

Six trades. Five winners. That's the kind of day that makes you believe the model knows something.

Started the morning checking the MLB slate. Yankees contract was sitting at 59c when the model flagged it. Threw 10 contracts at it. Not a huge position, but enough to matter. The team came through and I pocketed $4.10. Clean win. Those mid-range baseball plays have been reliable lately.

WNBA was next. Portland Fire came across the feed at 62c. The model lit up. I went 10 contracts again and watched it cash for $3.80. Two wins in a row, both solid. The account was creeping up.

Then the Spurs contract hit the board at 50c. This one felt different. The model was aggressive on it, suggesting a bigger position, so I went 10 contracts. Watching that one resolve was the highlight of the day. It paid $5.00. The single biggest win of the session.

Minnesota Twins came next, also at 65c. Another MLB play. Ten contracts, $3.50 profit. The model was clearly finding mispricings across baseball today. Sometimes you get those multi-sport days that click across the board, but today felt like the model was really zeroed in on baseball specifically.

Then Connecticut Sun happened. 53c entry, 10 contracts. Lost $5.30. That stung a bit. One loser in a six-trade day is solid, but it knocked the edge off the Spurs win. Still green though. Still significantly green.

Dallas Wings closed it out at 76c. Small entry at 10 contracts, but it hit for $2.40. End the day on a winner. Always a nice feeling.

Real money account is now at $95.77. Started with $10 on day one. That's 858% return if you're keeping score. Paper account is down to $990, which means it's taking some real losses lately while the live money keeps climbing. Interesting divergence. The model keeps both running simultaneously, and they're telling different stories right now.

29 days in, 196 wins and 160 losses. Win rate is sitting at 55%. Not flashy, but the compounding is real. The small positions on the 10-contract plays add up when most of them hit.

Day 29 Stats (Multi-sport day):

• Record: 5W-1L
• P&L: +$13.50
• Trades: 6 (MLB, NBA, WNBA)
• Real money account: $95.77 (+858% total)
• Paper account: $990 (-1% total)

hey is somenone using claude ia code along with the API to create his own bot to start trading?? i have mine but i'm testing it out for 2 weeks simulating like if he has money, I will like to know is somebody else is using it an tell me how is it working for him

https://preview.redd.it/gn9ta8dejc2h1.png?width=181&format=png&auto=webp&s=d16da70d644b75686dbcfb91ed9b14af2edfb16d

Been trading on Polymarket for a while now, went through the full cycle — early wins, overconfidence, a painful drawdown, slow rebuild. Along the way I joined a few trading communities and noticed the same mistakes come up over and over. Here's what actually costs people money:

1. Treating every market like a coin flip New traders see 60/40 and think "easy edge." They ignore that the 60% side is already priced in. The question isn't "who will win" — it's "is this probability wrong?"

2. No position sizing Going all-in on one high-conviction market. One bad resolution, one "that's unexpected" moment, and you're back to zero. Even on 80% markets.

3. Ignoring liquidity Entering a $500 position on a low-volume market, then watching the spread eat you alive when you try to exit early.

4. Holding through resolution instead of taking profit A market at 92% still has 8% of pure downside. Locking in 85% and moving on is often the better trade.

5. Trading sports markets without understanding frontrunning Odds move faster than you can react. By the time you see the line, someone already got there.

Learned most of this the hard way. Happy to discuss any of these — what mistakes would you add?

How to make money on Polymarket? Is there any guidance or advice?

Anyone else having issues with the archived Elon tweet count markets on Polymarket?

I had positions and open orders in these markets:

• https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-220-239
• https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-260-279

What happened:

• markets became archived
• positions disappeared temporarily
• open orders disappeared
• balance became inconsistent
• one market later partially restored
• rules/market structure also appeared to change

Support says the markets team is still reviewing the situation, but I still have missing funds/orders tied to these markets.

Is anyone else experiencing the same thing?
Did your balances/orders eventually return?

Trying to understand whether this is affecting multiple users or just me.

https://preview.redd.it/md5ufxzemb2h1.png?width=1682&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7aaaeadc235f15e03fc87e23b820f1729572d91