This wallet loaded over $1,000,000 on no Iran x US deal by the end of the year
He is positioned for no return to normal traffic in Hormuz and no nuclear deal
Potential payout: $1,400,000+
The wallet deposited around $73K in June and mostly traded sports and esports markets.
Over the next 2.5 months, the account kept climbing until it reached roughly $2.25M at its peak.
Then August 12 and 13 happened.
The wallet lost about $2.9M across those two days, including a $1.7M loss on August 12 and another $1.2M on August 13.
August 14 was essentially flat at -$396, followed by another $153K loss on August 15.
That's a pretty wild turn after watching a $73K starting balance grow into millions in such a short time.
It took weeks to build the gains, but only two days to give most of them back.
Can this wallet make another run, or was this the peak?
I’ve been paper-trading some BTC 15m prediction-market entry logic, and the rejected entries are turning out to be more useful than the fills.
The useful part is not just the reason code. It’s the exact condition that made the strategy stay flat.
A few examples from the log:
- ASK_ABOVE_ENTRY_CAP: ask was above the max entry price
- BEFORE_DECISION_WINDOW: too early to make the call
- AFTER_ENTRY_WINDOW: entry window had already passed
- spread/depth failed: fill quality was not good enough
- stale inputs: snapshot was not safe to act on
No PnL flex. No “bot nailed it” screenshot. Just the strategy saying: price is wrong, timing is wrong, liquidity is too thin, or the input is stale.
That feels like the part most backtests quietly hand-wave away. A strategy can look fine if you only inspect the trades it took. The harder test is whether it can reject almost-good entries without overfitting itself into doing nothing.
I’m cleaning up the strategy/filter logic enough that the same paper decisions can be replayed and debugged, mostly because I want harsher eyes on the reject layer before trusting any green chart.
For people who trade these markets seriously: what would you need to see in paper logs before letting a strategy touch live funds?
From around -$500 to $64K PnL
This trader clearly has strong expertise in politics and economics
And these are exactly the niches where real knowledge can turn into serious edge
I found him through PredictParity Terminal
Spotted another interesting Polymarket trader named KingOfEsports.
The account joined this month, and has already made 43 predictions, and they're currently up $81K.
From what I see, they're focused on Dota 2, Counter-Strike and League of Legends, and they do both outright ML, and handicaps. So, they're pretty much concentrated..
Amongst the closed ones, the one I liked were..
$19K on MOUZ vs PARIVISION where they got +$10.85K in return
and $11K on Team Resilience for they got +$13.23K in return
And that’s just from the positions visible in the screenshots. But, the ones that are not are probably ones they took an L!
And, also this isn’t someone just going in with $50-$100 across hundreds of markets. But, they’re routinely parking $10K–$30K into individual esports, often around the 40–65¢ range.
FWIW, the account currently has 11 active positions, so there’s still a pretty substantial amount of risk on the table.
And it’s not limited to one game either..
They are currently maintaining on Dota 2/CS2/LoL. Also, few on game/map handicaps.
Wonder if this is someone who has a genuine esports model/order-flow edge rather than simply being a fan betting on teams they like..
Anyways, kinda felt, this is probably one of the more interesting new esports accounts I’ve come across...
BUT, this is another market which I haven't ventured, so was basically looking for inspiration, and ended up here.. anyone here into esports?
New market but odds are pricing in for 61% chance of a mythos type model released by Claude
Ran a copy-sim on a wallet called cqk. 960 resolved positions, sitting on about $41k in open value right now. $500 per copied entry, 60 seconds behind his fill, last 180 days
His 5,671 fills collapse into 3,039 real positions. A copier only gets a shot at 2,119 of them. The other 920 had no price left in the one-minute window by the time the trade would've been visible. Put $500 on each fillable one, $1,059,500 deployed total, and you land at +122%. He made +228% on the same trades, same window. Average slippage alone was 1.13 cents a share.
About half his edge survives being copied. The rest is just being faster than everyone else reading the same tape.
I’m starting to get into ATP combos, and was looking at Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati in a couple of hours from now..
The match is around 56% Medvedev on Polymarket right now, but this caught my attention..
A trader, TennisLove, has $78,100 on Medvedev at 56¢, targeting $139,856.
And this isn’t some random account.. they’ve made just 6 predictions, and they're up $237.5K all-time, and so far, every visible prediction has been won
Their previous positions are pretty wild too. They got returns of around $109K on Jodar–Fils, $50K on Shelton–Nakashima, $38K on Makhachev–Garry and $25K on Rublev–Carreno Busta.
And, they now went in on Medvedev which is their only active prediction...
And I’m actually on the same side here. So that was pleasing to see..
Medvedev is No. 7 vs Nakashima at No. 22, and he leads their H2H 2-0.
Nakashima is obviously dangerous right now. He just made his first Masters 1000 final in Montreal, but that run also means a pretty significant workload heading into Cincinnati. Shelton beat him 6-3, 7-6 in the final.
Medvedev, meanwhile, had the much lighter Montreal workload after losing early and then came into Cincinnati fresher.
Tbh, where I was looking for inspiration was cause the market isn’t giving Medvedev a huge edge. Broader sports books from what I see have him around -125 to -139, which roughly translates to the mid/high-50s if I have it right.
So I’m not calling this some lock. Nakashima’s current form makes this a legitimately tricky matchup.
But if I’m already leaning Medvedev, seeing TennisLove go in with $78K on the same side is certainly a nice confirmation.
Anyone else following this trader? Six predictions is obviously way too small a sample to call them a GOAT, but $237K+ P&L after nailing all six trades is pretty ridiculous.
Title.
I made my polymarket acct off of the Base app like...man, feels like 4-5 years ago.
For years, all I had to do was open Base, open the browser to access Poly, hit "sign in," tap the Basw logo and it would prompt me to use my finger ID.
The last 3ish days? Now it says something like "We'll need to set you up to transact on Polygon"
I have no account email, no password, etc. It was set up directly through Base.
The NATO-Russia military clash market caught my eye again after the latest Baltic development..
This time its the Admiral Kasatonov, a Russian warship capable of carrying Zircon hypersonic missiles, reportedly was spotted near Germany’s Fehmarn island. From what I read on The Telegraph, its tracker was reportedly switched off, but it’s the second Russian warship seen in the Baltic in recent weeks, following the Admiral Levchenko.
And, yes the market reacted on Poly, but not massively..
December 31 where the odds were 22% jumped to 24%, while the relatively closer October 31 market saw odds rise from 10% to 12%
FWIW, the Dec. 31 market is already above $1.2M in volume.
TBH, this market isn’t asking whether Russia will threaten NATO, violate airspace, deploy ships near NATO territory, but it requires an actual military encounter involving use of actual force & equipment.
So this latest deployment doesn’t qualify by itself.
Also, worth noting, if Russia deliberately attacked a NATO member’s military, we’re in a very different situation. Article 5 says an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all. While that doesn’t mean every NATO country automatically declares war but each ally decides what assistance it considers necessary..neverthless there would be some sort of escalation..
And that’s why I think the distinction between the previous drone incidents off Romania, and a genuine attack matters.
A drone wandering into Romanian airspace is one thing.
BUT, a deliberate Russian missile strike on a NATO military target is something else entirely. Am not really sure if Russia wants that at this very point of time.. but with Putin you never know.
I’m not saying 24¢ is necessarily a easily lean on Yes. Russia has plenty of incentive to posture without actually crossing that line.
But with another Russian warship now operating in the Baltic, I’m definitely watching this market more closely.
its strategy:
> scans markets for prices that don't match the real odds
> ignores who wins, only checks if the number is wrong
> fires the second it finds a gap
> takes a few cents of edge and exits
> repeats it 32,614 times
look at what it actually traded:
Bitcoin up or down, 5 min -> Up at 74c -> +$54,460
Bitcoin up or down, 15 min -> Up at 78.6c -> +$41,741
Counter-Strike, BIG vs B8 -> B8 at 50c -> +$50,000
the first two resolve in minutes. the bet opens and closes before you've finished reading it
a few cents per trade sounds like nothing. 32,614 times it's a million dollars
why nobody else does this:
its boring, no stories to tell at dinner
just buying what is priced wrong and closing it out
it doesn't predict anything. it just counts better than the crowd
the edge was never picking winners. it's noticing what's priced wrong
I live in New Zealand and have spent a few months developing a polymarket algorithm, it has been successful but I didn't realize polymarket restricts trade for new zealanders, how likely is it for me to get banned if i use a vps in an allowed country, and would i get my money taken off me if i get banned?
Sometimes I’ll see everyone on Reddit or X completely convinced that something is going one way but the odds on Polymarket tell a different story. Do you ever take the other side specifically because social sentiment feels way too one-sided?
I'm curious if anyone has found a real edge doing this or if fading the crowd usually just gets you burned.
When you price a Polymarket position do you ever discount your probability because you are uncertain how the Universal Market Access (UMA) will interpret the rules?
I’m not talking about if your trade is right or wrong. I’m thinking about if there will be issues with interpreting words like “perform”, “enter”, “ceasefire”, etc.
- Have you ever avoided a market because the resolution criteria felt too ambiguous?
- Have you ever lost money because a market resolved differently than you thought the rules implied?
- How much time do you spend reading how misunderstandings will be resolved before trading?
- Is this something you actively evaluate, or do you assume that the interpretation is obvious and will be resolved accordingly?
Curious how serious of a problem traders think this is.
This account cbgjvfy… joined in June 2026, has just one prediction, and that's on GTA 6 launch postponed again.
They went in roughly with $5.1K Yes in at ~10.4 cents, targeting $50K.
The odds for this is down to 9 cents, so the market has moved against them slightly. But they’re still holding.
And honestly, I’m curious what their study is...
GTA VI is currently scheduled for November 19, 2026, and Take-Two has incorporated that date into its financial guidance. Its June, Q1FY27 results reported last week left its projected $8.0–$8.2B in FY2027 net bookings unchanged, with the GTA VI launch being a primary driver.
FWIW, there have been two official delays already.. from the original 2025 window to May 26, 2026, and then from May to Nov. 19.
So yes, Rockstar has a history of pushing dates, especially with GTA VI.
But I’m struggling to find a current catalyst for another delay.
The latest Take-Two earnings data and commentary all continue to point Nov. 19 as the launch date, and pre-orders have been live since June 25.
There are also signs of massive demand. Sensor Tower’s tracker has reportedly put pre-orders around 4.3M units, while separate reporting says an extraordinary 89% of pre-orders are for the $100 Ultimate Edition.
So at 9¢, this is obviously a very standalone trade, but if you believe there’s some undisclosed development problem.
But, that's what would be a question though if this trader has any mileage..
What does this trader know/think that justifies a ~$5K trade against a release date that Take-Two is building its entire FY2027 outlook around?
Personally, I’m not buying the delay thesis yet.
But a new account putting $5K behind a single 9–10¢ outcome is exactly the kind of position I find interesting on Polymarket.
Genuinely curious how people here approach combos.
I’ve been experimenting with tiny positions, usually $1–$2 till I start to nail it, and my biggest problem is that I can get the individual picks right but struggle to get all the legs home.
Last night I had..
Mets/ Marlins / Rangers
And, $1 would’ve paid $5.57.
The initial ones went to plan, but once Rangers started looking shaky, I put another $1 on the Athletics, and thankfully it returned $2.63.
So the hedge helped, but obviously it doesn’t solve the underlying problem.. I still can’t hit the full combo.
And that’s what I’m trying to understand.
If I have three positions where I think each one has, say, a 65–70% chance individually, combining them means the probability of all three hitting drops pretty quickly.
So maybe the mistake is trying to maximize payout rather than finding the best combination of genuine edges.
For those of you who are actually good at combos, how do you build them?
2-leg high-confidence combos?
3-leg combos for better payout?
or anyone had luck with 4-leg combo?
And, what's the strategy you followed when you got that right?
Because getting 2/3 right feels incredibly easy.
Getting 3/3 right apparently requires divine intervention for me.
After reading people’s thoughts on wallet tracking, I’m starting to think “most profitable wallets” might be the wrong filter.
A wallet can look great on PnL but still be useless to follow if it is:
- market-making / capturing spread
- winning from one huge binary hit
- getting fills on tiny liquidity
- buying 90c consensus favorites
- making correlated bets inside the same event
- entering so early or with such size that the trade is not copyable
So maybe the better question is not “which wallets made the most money?”
Maybe it is:
“Which wallets are actually informative when they take a position?”
For people who look at Polymarket wallets, which is more useful to you:
a leaderboard of the most profitable wallets
a checker that tells whether a wallet is skilled/lucky/market-making/not copyable
a market page showing which side has more credible wallets before you take a position
Curious how others think about this.
Should Polymarket call a maker rebate a “win” when the prediction lost?
I want to raise this as a product/design question, not as a rant.
If I place a maker order, provide liquidity, and the market resolves against my position, then my prediction was wrong.
If I later receive a small maker rebate or liquidity credit, that may be earned compensation for providing liquidity.
But should the interface describe that as a “win”?
That distinction matters.
A rebate is not the same thing as correctly predicting the event.
A rebate is earned by providing liquidity.
A market payout is won by being on the correct side of the resolved outcome.
Those are different things.
If a user places a maker trade, loses the market, and then receives a notification saying something like “You won” or “Great job predicting the future,” the language can blur what actually happened.
The user did not do a great job predicting the future.
They provided liquidity.
The prediction lost.
This may sound like a small copy issue, but I think it matters because prediction markets already sit in a strange psychological space. They look like trading terminals. The prices look like probabilities. The activity feels like research. But for many retail users, especially in short-duration markets, the experience can become a loop: deposit, predict, watch, win/lose, reload.
Language shapes memory.
If losses are quiet, buried in the ledger, or only visible when someone goes looking, but small rebates or residual credits are surfaced as “wins,” the user’s memory of performance can become distorted.
A cleaner version might say:
“Maker rebate earned”
or:
“Liquidity credit received”
or:
“Position lost. Maker rebate earned.”
That would still give the user credit for providing liquidity without implying that the event prediction was successful.
I’m open to being corrected on the mechanics here. But from a user-interface and behavioral-design perspective, I think this distinction is important.
A maker rebate is not a prediction win.
It should not be dressed as one.
A trader can be a shark today and a fish next week
I’ve been tracking a strong Polymarket sports trader who just started losing heavily over the last week
This is why I believe SharkRadar needs to update every day.
Past performance ≠ future edge.
Every time I try to trade a niche market like a YouTuber match, a CEO stepping down, or a specific movie box office number, the line violently moves 40% about three hours before the actual news breaks.
It is painfully obvious that someone's assistant, cousin, or intern is just front-running the press release with a $10k market buy. Since we are literally playing PvP against people who are in the actual room where the decisions are made, how do you guys find an edge? Or do you just strictly stick to macro/political markets where insider trading is harder?
