I'm in a few pretty large squads. I was studying the leaderboards and the stats are honestly shocking:
2,700 member squad
Win rate above 10% ROI: 247 members
Loss rate -50% or worse ROI: 1,400 members
860 member squd
Win rate above 10% ROI: 76 members
Loss rate -50% or worse ROI: 500 members
😬😬😬
The Nobel Peace Prize can have several winners. The Polymarket market on it can only resolve Yes on one.
>If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence.
So if any of those five is among the winners, the highest one on that list takes it and every other name resolves No.
If none of the five win, a listed individual who shares it with a listed organization takes it over the organization. If all the listed winners are the same type, it goes alphabetically by last name or entity name.
Resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Announcement is Oct 9, 11:00 CEST. Rules as of Oct 3, and Polymarket can add clarifications before it settles.
Has anyone seen a past Polymarket market with a shared-winner rule like this actually settle? Curious whether it went smoothly or ended up disputed.
I'm with klarero, we're building a Polymarket data site.