تنبأت هذه القناة بأحداث 7 أكتوبر وبـ "حرب الـ 12 يوماً"، كما تنبأت أيضاً بـ "عملية الوعد الصادق 4". وتوقعاتها لعام 2027 كارثية ومروعة
youtube.comu/thedowcast — 21 hours ago
r/PredictionSignal
This is how to outperform 90% of traders, the S&P 500, and even Bitcoin in the next three months.
Magdalena Andersson becoming Sweden's next prime minister trades at 74 cents on Polymarket. If she takes office, the contract pays a dollar. That is a 35% return by roughly mid-October, and since the S&P 500 delivers about 10% in a good year, you would be compressing three and a half years of index performance into one Scandinavian autumn. The question is whether the 74 is fair.
The companion market on whether her Social Democrats win the most seats trades at 96 cents.
So, the market believes her party wins almost certainly while she personally becomes prime minister only three times in four? Yeah, sure.
Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2073486013259800751
u/EmbarrassedStudent10 — 22 hours ago
u/EmbarrassedStudent10 — 8 days ago
Polymarket user lost all his money on World Cup predictions due to emotional rollercoaster
u/EmbarrassedStudent10 — 8 days ago
The market says there's a 90% chance that Banksy makes new work by December 31. Here's why this is a mispriced event.
In August 2024, a series of nine animal artworks appeared in London over nine days, one every single morning, each confirmed on his Instagram the day it showed up.
In September 2025, he made headlines with a mural of a judge looming over a protester on a wall of the Royal Courts of Justice. The authorities covered it up almost immediately.
Three months after that, a brand new mural appeared in west London on December 23, two children in winter coats lying on the pavement, confirmed on his official Instagram.
In early 2026 he switched mediums entirely, a statue of a suited man blinded by a flag and walking off a ledge, erected overnight in central London.
This is a man who produces multiple confirmed works every year and has done so for over two decades. He usually spaces his pieces out over months, but the floor is never zero. It's never even close to one.
The only way this market resolves No is if Banksy produces nothing at all for an entire calendar year, which would be the single most uncharacteristic thing he could do.
At 90 cents, you're paying a 10% premium for the possibility that one of the most prolific living artists suddenly stops.
We'll take the other side of that all day.
Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2070581153963086127
u/EmbarrassedStudent10 — 8 days ago
Polymarket is now live on Telegram.
Prediction markets became popular not just because they expanded beyond sports into unique topics, but because they are simple to use. The UI and UX make trading intuitive, so anyone can understand it even without prior experience.
Bringing Polymarket to Telegram opens it up to over a billion users who fit this exact profile, people who are not trading-savvy but can still participate easily because the product is so straightforward.
It would not be surprising to see Kalshi pursue the same path.
Originally posted on Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2070065923159928916
u/EmbarrassedStudent10 — 11 days ago
Big draw-push on Paraguay vs Australia after MD2 results, thoughts?
After matchday 2 (Australia lost 0-2 to USA, Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0), the 1X2 line on this one has moved hard.
Context:
- Paraguay's right mid Almiron picked up a red card last match and is suspended here
- If this ends in a draw, Australia is through to the R32 outright, and Paraguay is also in good shape to advance via the best third-place spot
- So both sides have a real incentive to not lose, maybe not even to win
Line movement since the MD2 results dropped (screenshot attached): Draw went from 3.27 down to 2.22, Paraguay drifted from 2.10 out to 2.78, Australia ticked up slightly too (3.50 to 3.77). That's a pretty sharp and fast repricing for a draw outcome.
Personally I think this is a reasonable move given the permutations, the incentives line up too cleanly to ignore. But curious what others here think, is the market overreacting to the scenario, or is this just an efficient read on a low-stakes-for-a-win situation? Anyone see either coach actually going for it regardless?
u/PhiloPark — 13 days ago