r/PredictionSignal

His track record looks nothing like typical trading.

No daily churn.

No emotional bets.

No random drawdowns.

Just a handful of entries when the odds were heavily in his favor.

It looks like what happens when Grok Bot gets live odds and is only allowed to enter when the edge is strong enough.

• Rafael Jodar @ 58¢ → +$109K
• Ben Shelton @ 70¢ → +$50K
• Makhachev @ 77¢ → +$37K

All three closed in profit.

[source]

A fresh wallet (notprofitabl) has deposited $710k over the last 19 days to build a $696k position (886k shares) on a single contract: NO on Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 before Dec 31.

If BTC stays above $45k for the next 135 days, the position pays out $886,879, netting $193,340 in profit.

Why the trade flow is unusual:

• Most traders buy cheap and hold. This whale started buying at 72¢, kept adding at 75¢ and 77¢, and just dropped another $200k at 80¢, paying more as the market agreed with him.
• With BTC at ~$64K, Bitcoin would need a ~30% drop to touch $45,000.
• Historical cycles show BTC often bottoms in Q4 during bear market years (2015, 2018, 2022). Plus, a single touch of $45,000 at any point before Dec 31 wipes out the entire $700k.

Essentially, he's taking a massive tail-risk bet that any Q4 pullback will stop short of $45k.

Source [Predictbook]

I run a small prediction markets research firm. Here's what three months of tracking Brier scores vs. Kalshi's implied probabilities actually looks like: wins & losses.

If you want free prediction markets research three times a week, top three calls with edge scores, I publish them on Substack: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/

• Total scored forecasts: 5
• Correct: 4
• Incorrect: 1
• AFG Brier: 0.111 vs Market Brier Score: 0.132
• Accuracy: 80%

You've probably trading weather markets on Kalshi or Polymarket, for example, Los Angeles will reach 77°F today by checking a weather app, noting the temperature figure, and then making the trade on that basis. That's entirely reasonable since that's what everybody else does.

However, that figure didn't just show up out of nowhere; it is the end result of a lengthy sequence of numerical modelling and statistical adjustments, and most of the people trading on it have never examined the chain itself. In fact, it is precisely within that chain that the advantage lies.

>The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) is the convection-allowing model that NOAA uses, with a grid spacing of 3km extending over the continental United States. Since the larger global models (GFS, ECMWF) have a grid that is too coarse to depict thunderstorms accurately, they have to simulate them by means of cumulus parameterization.

The HRRR's grid, however, is fine-grained enough to eliminate the need for such simulation and instead carries out the convection directly. Because of this, it is the model that people actually pay attention to, even if they aren't aware of its name.

HRRR doesn't have a single forecast range; it has two, and the one you receive depends on the cycle in question. It is carried out every hour, 24 times each day.

Twenty of these hourly runs (01Z, 02Z, 03Z, and so on) only extend the forecast to 18 hours in the future, but four of them — at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z — operate in an extended mode that covers 48 hours.

The farther away from the actual time of the forecast you are, the more that run will be making guesses rather than carrying out observations. It's worth bearing in mind before you place too much trust in a 00Z run's view of tomorrow at 3 p.m.

Many model-based strategies are not actually responding to the forecast itself, but rather to the moment when a new run is released.

For example, if the 04Z cycle completes its calculations at approximately 05:21 UTC, the price remains unchanged as long as the market didn't notice anything new, and then it jumps immediately once the new run's data appears: whatever that may be, such as a revised Tmax, a bias correction, or a different call regarding cloud timing.

https://preview.redd.it/1rtw7q3t7djh1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfa06d96a9fa2cc0a8a83217688f8aff7fa6175d

and in UTC the same chart:

https://preview.redd.it/53i2vdrb8djh1.png?width=1603&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbc093845422c8a4c2757d7aa6f8069b4669f900

Two traders may be looking at the same forecast (which has been correctly adjusted) and yet end up with entirely different outcomes simply because one of them found out a few minutes earlier.

In a market where many people check the API or continually refresh the dashboard, the advantage of knowing the figure before everyone else goes beyond simply knowing it.

That's why repricing happens and why it's important to receive weather model calculations as soon as possible - it may provide you with a better entry price.

a World Cup hangover means a chance to assess prediction markets' biggest rivalry. Polymarket (US+intl) vols are down ~56% from a June record, while Kalshi is down ~25% since its own peak. that's not good news for the company that held 98% market share pre-2024 US election.

Polymarket's attempts to recover lost ground so far, millions in liquidity rewards, influencer schemes, limited parlays, haven't succeeded. Crypto price markets, still among the hottest bets on its site, now trail Kalshi's volumes after a flippening in April.

Source (Bloomberg)

Over the course of his trading, he made a profit of $6,635.37.

A trader has found a niche on Polymarket that almost no one notices - temperature forecasts for European and African cities.

While everyone else is competing for votes and sports markets, he checks the weather forecast every day.

Cape Town, Warsaw, Munich, Madrid - and he makes money wherever the market misprices probability.

Top 3 deals:

• $6.19 -> $700.51 (+11,213%)
• $9.36 -> $584.37 (+6,143%)
• $210.61 -> $2,089.15 (+892%)

The simplest market inefficiencies are often the most profitable.

OC: @ PolyDekos

2 funded prediction market analytics platforms just announced they're shutting down.

Fireplace raised $1.5M pre-seed (Feb 2026) and lasted ~6 months. Trepa raised $420K pre-seed (Aug 2025) and lasted ~12. Both give users until Sept 30, 23:59 UTC to withdraw.

• Fireplace: $1.5M pre-seed, closed Feb 2026, led by Frachtis (Good news Ventures, Legion, White Star Capital, Echo, BlackPine also in). Fixed-odds order book, basically the same shape as Polymarket/Kalshi. Shut down ~6 months after the raise. Their announcement gives zero cause, just a thank-you and a line for anyone building in the space to DM them, which reads like an asset sale more than a retirement note.
• Trepa: $420K pre-seed, closed Aug 2025, led by Colosseum (Balaji Srinivasan, Ignight Capital also in). Pari-mutuel scoring on numeric predictions instead of binary yes/no. Shut down ~12 months after the raise, double Fireplace's runway on less than a third of the capital. Their shutdown post is an actual postmortem: no fixed odds meant you couldn't see your payout before committing, and their own scaling plan (more assets, more time windows) worked against their pari-mutuel pool math.

The number that actually stands out is the inversion: 3.5x the funding bought roughly half the runway. Draw your own conclusions about deployment discipline vs. product-market fit vs. just being early in a category that hasn't found its winning mechanic yet.

Anyone have a read on burn rate or headcount at either shop? Curious whether this is a spend story or a demand story.

Until yesterday, every crypto up/down market settled on a single price snapshot (one Chainlink oracle read at the exact second the market expired).

Do you realize what it enables?

A trader can buy bitcoin above X in 5 minutes and with 3 seconds left, he slam a spot buy on Binance. Price spikes for one instant, oracle reads it and contract resolves in his favor.

Stanford studied those 5m bitcoin contracts and found that 821 accounts flagged as likely manipulators ~$8.2M extracted during manipulated windows ~$1.28M transferred directly from retail Binance volume spiked 3.9x before settlement 93% of losses fell on retail (of course).

But starting August 7 Polymarket replaced snapshots with TWAP settlement (time weighted average price) via Chainlink Data Streams.

• 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP
• 15 min / 4 hour markets: 60 second TWAP

Gaming a snapshot means moving the price for one instant but gaming a 30 second average means you are holding that dislocation while every arb fades you.

7 assets covered: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, BNB, DOGE + $1M in liquidity rewards through in August.

Hey manipulators, snapshot mechanism is dead and the edge now lives in reading actual direction.

• 5:17 AM: buys into a League of Legends match, ~511K shares between $0.46–$0.65
• sells it later at $0.999, $861K back
• 7:47 AM: buys into a tennis match too, in small chunks, ~$758K total, all near $1.00
• gets that back in full
• also takes a quick loss on a tennis market, in and out in 39 minutes, down $54K
• by 8 AM: $2.37M moved in under 3.5 hours
• jumps from 297,600th to 18th on the esports leaderboard, 130th to 68th overall
• lifetime this wallet is up $2M on $59M traded
• money moves in capped chunks (~$250K at a time) and gets pulled back out, no positions held overnight in over a month

5 hours later, sold his entire position at 99.9¢ right before the game closed. Profit: ~$108K.

Same wallet is down $1.96M lifetime.