r/SPCXstock

Starlink alone is my reason for buying SPCX. Last quarter saw $3.3B in revenue. Given Starlink's advantages---cost and coverage---over every other internet provider, I predict theat will be $30B per quarter within five years. It's just getting started. Thoughts?

Quick context for those not following: SpaceX (SPCX) IPO'd on June 11 at $135, ripped to an all-time high of $225.64 by June 16, then got hammered ~16% after KeyBanc initiated coverage and basically said "incredible company, priced like it already won the next decade." Today it's sitting at $162.52, up 5.1%.

Meanwhile, the rest of tech is getting destroyed:

• KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker — down 8% on a leveraged ETF unwind
• ASML -7.9%, Qualcomm -9.8%, KLA -9.9%, Micron -7.9%
• SOXX (semiconductor ETF) -6.1%, SOXL (3x leveraged) -17.5%
• Nasdaq broadly lower, Dow holding green — classic growth-to-value rotation

So why is SPCX green when everything else is bleeding?

A few things happening simultaneously:

1. The 16% drop already happened. SPCX ate its correction last week when KeyBanc flagged overvaluation and lack of Starship commercialization visibility. The stock went from $225 to ~$155 in days. Today's bounce is partially just mean reversion after an oversold move.
2. $89 billion in bond demand. SpaceX's debut U.S. bond sale drew absurd oversubscription. When the credit market is that hungry for your debt, it puts a floor under equity sentiment — institutional money clearly isn't worried about fundamentals here.
3. It's not a semiconductor. Today's selloff is a technical deleveraging event originating from South Korean leveraged chip ETFs forcing cascading liquidations. SPCX doesn't have chip exposure, so it's decoupled from the contagion chain. Simple as that.
4. ARK's $444M position. Cathie Wood rotated out of AMD, Roku, Tesla, and Baidu to fund a 3.3M share buy. Love or hate ARK, that's a large pool of capital providing bid support.

The bear case is real though:

• 5-7% short interest on a brand-new mega-cap IPO. That's not nothing.
• SpaceX explicitly stated they won't release quarterly financials through traditional wire services. Less disclosure = more rumor-driven moves.
• Realized volatility is running ~210%. This thing moves like a small-cap biotech, not a trillion-dollar company.
• Still below IPO pop levels — 1-month return is -3.9%.

👉 Vlad's read:

SPCX is a battleground name. The long-term thesis (Starlink, direct-to-cell, AI contracts with Anthropic/Google, orbital infrastructure) is legitimately strong. But it priced in years of execution on day one, and now every analyst note or headline moves billions in market cap.

Today's green candle doesn't mean the correction is over — it means this stock trades on its own narrative while the semiconductor complex works through a leverage unwind that has nothing to do with SpaceX's business.

If you're holding: the next catalyst is Starship progress updates and any Starlink revenue disclosures. If you're watching: this is the kind of name where patience gets rewarded better than chasing.

Not financial advice. Just watching the tape. 👀

Feel free to share.

— Vlad