r/SilverSqueeze

Silver has had some pretty wild moves this year, and sentiment seems to change almost as quickly as the price does.

But I keep wondering how much has actually changed underneath all of that.

The silver market is still expected to run another deficit in 2026, which would make it the sixth straight year. Mine supply is not exactly exploding, and the market is still relying on above ground inventories to make up the difference between what gets produced and what gets consumed.

There are definitely things worth watching.

Industrial demand is not going straight up forever. Solar manufacturers are using less silver per panel, for example, and at these prices you are obviously going to see more effort put into substitution and thrifting.

But that is a lot different from saying the silver thesis has fallen apart.

That is one reason I have been more interested in the producer side lately.

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (TSXV: SM, OTCQX: SMDRF) is producing silver and gold from the La Guitarra Mine Complex in Mexico. They restarted the operation and reached commercial production at the beginning of 2025.

Q1 this year came in at US$10.1M in net revenue and US$2.8M in adjusted EBITDA, and they are still working on increasing production.

To me, that is a different setup than owning something where the entire thesis depends on silver being much higher five years from now when the mine finally gets built.

SM is already producing today.

If La Guitarra works at more conservative silver prices, then higher silver becomes operating leverage rather than something you absolutely need to make the economics work.

And now they have Del Toro sitting behind it as another potential growth asset.

That is why I think the producer versus developer debate is pretty interesting here.

If you are bullish on silver over the next few years, what do you prefer?

Physical silver, a massive undeveloped resource with maximum torque, or a smaller producer where stronger prices are already flowing through the business?