Non-big six clubs playing in European competition for the first time drop an average of 5.7 positions the following season; does the market price this correctly?
Pattern located?
When non-Big Six clubs qualify for Europe, the following season almost always tells the same story.
The data shows an average drop of 5.7 positions in the league table the season they play in European competition, and the market consistently prices these clubs as though qualification is a sign of momentum rather than a potential anchor.
Two nuances worth factoring in. First, not all competitions are equal: Conference League football is a meaningfully lighter load than Europa, so adjust accordingly. Second, motivation becomes a variable if a club goes deep and wins. A European trophy can make league position irrelevant, which changes the calculus entirely.
But the underlying pattern is consistent enough to build into your model every single season when assessing newly promoted European clubs.
Curious whether others have found the same and whether you think the market is starting to price this in?