Login

r/Stock_Market

SpaceX nuked ASTS 10%, so Reddit called an emergency meeting to turn $10K into $10M
▲ 27 r/Stock_Market+1 crossposts

SpaceX nuked ASTS 10%, so Reddit called an emergency meeting to turn $10K into $10M

ASTS closed -10.5% Friday after SpaceX agreed to buy the 800 MHz spectrum AST reportedly wanted, created many bagholders and sentiment is split down the middle.

So the table reconvened. Five seats, five completely different definitions of risk:

  1. r/investing: VOO for 30 years. At ~10%/yr that's ~$175K. Only 42 more years to go.

  2. r/wallstreetbets: SPY 0DTE. Needs 10 doubles. Has 30 minutes.

  3. r/TheRaceTo10Million: ASTS just hit a 52-week low. All in.

  4. r/stocks: MU + NVDA. MU is $1,029 a share, so $10K buys 9 shares and a dream.

  5. GME guy: the warrants. $32 strike, GME at $26.56, they expire Oct 30.

You can trust ONE seat with your $10K. Pick a number and defend it.

(Verizon was invited but lost signal. -8.8% Friday.)

Scoreboard drops Oct 30, when the warrants expire.

u/HellRoot5 — 4 days ago
▲ 26 r/Stock_Market+1 crossposts

NASA released the final RFP for commercial stations to succeed the ISS

NASA put out the final request for proposals on 9 October 2026 for the privately owned stations that are supposed to replace the ISS in low Earth orbit. Earlier work was done under funded Space Act Agreements. This round is firm-fixed-price multi-award IDIQ contracts. NASA plans to pick two or more contractors for early development, then run a later competition for final design, test, certification and services. Proposals are due 8 December 2026 and awards are expected in spring 2027. The current budget has $272.3 million for it and about $2.1 billion is attached over the next five years. NASA also said it will furnish transportation for the first four service missions and published its own price estimates, around $325 million for a four-seat crew flight in 2030 and about $300 million for cargo.

Four teams are expected to bid: Axiom Space, Blue Origin, Starlab and Vast. At least one is likely to be left without NASA development money. Starlab's chief executive has said the venture will compete and Axiom has said it is preparing a proposal. Axiom Space, Blue Origin and Vast are private.

Voyager Technologies is the majority shareholder in the Starlab joint venture, so a selection funds its principal station programme through development and a non-selection removes that funding path. MDA Space is an equity owner in Starlab and supplies the external robotics, robotics interfaces and robotic mission operations, so that scope only moves into funded development if Starlab is selected. Redwire holds the contracts to supply roll-out solar array wings for the first two modules of Axiom Station, so its station work grows or stalls with whether Axiom's station is carried through NASA-funded development.

What would make the whole thing not matter is NASA selecting only a single contractor in spring 2027, cancelling or re-scoping the solicitation before awards, or an enacted appropriation materially below the roughly $2.1 billion five-year profile, which would leave the awards too thin to carry two stations through development.

Source:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/nasa-issues-long-awaited-call-to-industry-for-private-space-stations/

I flagged this while reading the filing for a tool I am building. Happy to be wrong on the multi-provider side.

u/ohdonpier — 4 days ago
▲ 98 r/Stock_Market+3 crossposts

BREAKING via Unusual Whales: President Trump reportedly asked for Grok's opinion before invading Venezuela and capturing Nicolás Maduro 🇺🇸 👀

x.com
u/SuperLehmanBros — 13 days ago
▲ 11 r/Stock_Market+5 crossposts

Ten days after Rothschild's Sell call, someone paid $2.3M for CRWV puts that stop right above the 52-week low

CRWV trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis

Wall Street still carries CoreWeave at a consensus Buy, 35 analysts averaging a price target near $138.78 per MarketBeat, while the stock changed hands at $88.33 on Thursday, October 1, 2026, barely half its 52-week high of $153.20. A trader leaned the other way at 13:50:59 ET, paying a net $2.3M for a 5,000-contract CRWV put spread expiring January 15, 2027: long the 90s, short the 70s, one print. The structure is bearish. Both legs were marked at nearly identical implied vol, so the vega offsets and what the debit buys is direction.

The bear case here got a name ten days ago. Rothschild Redburn initiated CoreWeave at Sell on September 21, 2026, arguing that falling GPU-rental prices, hyperscalers building their own capacity and expensive financing would compress returns (Yahoo Finance, September 23: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-nebius-just-got-sell-185913300.html). Invezz on September 29 had the stock in a bear market with short interest above 10%, a figure about the shares generally and not about this order. Under that argument sit $2.58B of Q2 revenue against a $626M net loss, roughly $33.8B of total debt as of June 30, capex guided to $35B-$39B for 2026, and a $104B backlog. The day's actual headline pointed elsewhere: Zacks, October 1, on the new CoreWeave Partner Network and the NVIDIA Vera CPU deployments unveiled at Fully Connected the day before, a story about ecosystem reach, which is a separate question from what a GPU-hour rents for.

The two legs:
- bought 2,500 of the Jan 15, 2027 90 puts for $3.6M, $14.40 a share, delta -0.43, IV 74.7%
- sold 2,500 of the Jan 15, 2027 70 puts for $1.3M, $5.20 a share, delta -0.21, IV 75.0%

Net $9.20 a share for a $20-wide window, 106 days out, with the long strike $1.67 above spot and the short strike about 21% below it. Net delta works out near -0.22 per spread. Prior-day open interest was 6,791 at the 90s and 33,188 at the 70s, both far larger than the 2,500 traded in each leg, so either side could have been opened or closed inside that interest and open versus close is not determinable here.

What interests me is where they stopped. Selling the 70s caps the structure above the 52-week low of $60.55, which means the thing being bought sits in the band between today's price and the bottom of the existing range, and the tail underneath it was sold off to pay for the near part. Anyone pricing the financing accident implied by $33.8B of debt and compressing rental economics would want to own that tail, and this structure sells it. Paying 46% of the width for a window anchored at the money, at 75 vol, is a workable way to own a move into the 70s and a poor way to own anything under them. A second reading stays live: with short interest where it is and the equity sitting on top of that debt load, this could be financed protection on exposure I cannot see. The strike placement persuades me more than the hedge reading does, because a hedger with that much balance-sheet risk in mind usually reaches further down, not to a strike already in the money.

CoreWeave's next earnings report is estimated for November 9, 2026, inside the contract's life, and the expanded $21B Meta agreement announced April 9, 2026 covers capacity running 2027 through 2032, so this spread expires two weeks into the first year of that contract. If GPU-hour pricing keeps slipping while interest expense compounds, the 90-70 band is exactly where this position lives. What breaks it is utilization and contract pricing holding up, and November is the first dated read on which of those is happening.

*Education, not advice. Flow data from optionwhales.io.*

reddit.com
u/PassNew8148 — 13 days ago