r/TotalMarketCycles

Every cycle people say the 4-year model is broken, and every cycle it more or less holds — just messier than the last one. But this time feels different in ways that are harder to dismiss. ETFs pulling in institutional money, central banks still playing with rates, and algos reacting faster than any retail accumulation phase can build cleanly. The pattern might still be there, but the signal-to-noise ratio keeps getting worse. Peaks are harder to call, bottoms get front-run, and the halving effect seems to be losing its punch with each iteration. Do you think the 4-year cycle is still a useful framework, or are we holding onto it because it's the only map we have?