r/WSBAfterHours

Memory chip squeeze is finally biting Apple, and I think this rerates the whole consumer hardware trade
▲ 28 r/WSBAfterHours+1 crossposts

Memory chip squeeze is finally biting Apple, and I think this rerates the whole consumer hardware trade

been chewing on this all week so bear with me.

Micron just printed mobile and client revenue of $11.5B, up 49% QoQ. gross margin 87%, operating margin 86%. that is not a typo. SK Hynix and Samsung are riding the same wave. memory is basically printing money right now.

then look at the other side. AAPL bumped prices on Macs, iPads, home devices. fiscal Q2 26 gross margin 49.3%, product gross margin sitting at 38.7%. stock got smoked on the print. the math is brutal, even Apple cannot fully eat what MU is charging.

what stood out to me when i pulled the comp on moomoo, MU growth is almost entirely price-led, not unit-led. so this is not a volume story you can shrug off as one quarter. it is a structural cost shift and downstream margins are the bag holder.

so the trade in my head, long memory ($MU $WDC $SNDK or just $DRAM if you want a basket), short or just trim the consumer hardware names that have to swallow it. AAPL is the obvious one but anything that ships DRAM heavy boxes is on the menu.

what i am stuck on, how long does this last before Apple just starts engineering around the cost or pushing suppliers back. they have the leverage eventually right? or am i underrating how cooked the supply side is for the next 4-6 quarters.

anyone here actually long both sides as a pair trade? curious if you are sizing it differently than i am thinking.

u/AbbreviationsIcy3807 — 6 days ago
▲ 24 r/WSBAfterHours+1 crossposts

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u/darkspark3 — 6 days ago

Someone posted a SNDK chart with just "did I do it bro", memory stocks going crazy

A random SNDK chart popped up with just "did I do it bro" as the caption. No thesis, no words, just the chart. Kinda love that energy tbh.

Context: Korea's been ramping chip capex hard and every memory name is catching a serious bid. Been watching SNDK move on the moomoo community feed all week, that whole "memory supercycle" narrative picking up steam again.

These no-thesis chart posts always crack people up, but the setup here isn't a joke. Korea capex flowing straight into DRAM and NAND buildout, and every memory play is feeling it. SNDK looks like the smaller cap way to ride the same wave a lot of people are already chasing through the bigger names.

Anyone else riding the memory wave right now? Or is this the top and everyone piling in at the wrong moment lol

u/MochiHill — 5 days ago

MU just guided $50B for Q4 vs $43B street, ripped 18% AH. Am I reading this right?

ok so I had MU on my watchlist forever and finally fell asleep on it. classic.

pulled the print on moomoo after close and had to read it twice:

Q3 rev $41.46B vs $35.69B expected

Q3 adj EPS $25.11 vs $20.49

Q4 guide $50B plus or minus a buck vs street at $43.24B

Q4 EPS guide $31 vs $25.31

that Q4 guide is not a beat, that is a different planet. data center unit alone came in like 69% above what people were modeling. memory is straight up the AI tax now.

stock ripped about 18% after hours, green candles everywhere on the chart I pulled from moomoo community. CEO talking multi year supply agreements and record capex, which usually means the cycle has legs but also means margins get debated to death in 6 months.

I keep going back and forth. part of me thinks this is the moment HBM pricing actually gets respected and MU rerates with the rest of the AI complex. other part of me remembers every memory cycle ends in tears and the chart already moved.

anyone holding through earnings? and for the options crowd, did the weeklies actually pay or did IV crush eat you alive again? feels like one of those nights where the people who sized small are the happiest.

u/Eastern-Apartment934 — 11 days ago