
Memory chip squeeze is finally biting Apple, and I think this rerates the whole consumer hardware trade
been chewing on this all week so bear with me.
Micron just printed mobile and client revenue of $11.5B, up 49% QoQ. gross margin 87%, operating margin 86%. that is not a typo. SK Hynix and Samsung are riding the same wave. memory is basically printing money right now.
then look at the other side. AAPL bumped prices on Macs, iPads, home devices. fiscal Q2 26 gross margin 49.3%, product gross margin sitting at 38.7%. stock got smoked on the print. the math is brutal, even Apple cannot fully eat what MU is charging.
what stood out to me when i pulled the comp on moomoo, MU growth is almost entirely price-led, not unit-led. so this is not a volume story you can shrug off as one quarter. it is a structural cost shift and downstream margins are the bag holder.
so the trade in my head, long memory ($MU $WDC $SNDK or just $DRAM if you want a basket), short or just trim the consumer hardware names that have to swallow it. AAPL is the obvious one but anything that ships DRAM heavy boxes is on the menu.
what i am stuck on, how long does this last before Apple just starts engineering around the cost or pushing suppliers back. they have the leverage eventually right? or am i underrating how cooked the supply side is for the next 4-6 quarters.
anyone here actually long both sides as a pair trade? curious if you are sizing it differently than i am thinking.