r/asxbets

Market cap at 36.5c: ~$265m

Healius is selling Agilex Biolabs through a UBS-run process with multiple PE bidders already in the data room. Expected proceeds: $150-200m. Zero tax on the sale — they paid $301m for it in 2021 so the capital loss shelters the entire gain.

The free pathology calc:

$265m market cap minus $150m Agilex proceeds = $115m net cost for the core pathology business.

That business does $1.3bn revenue and $260m EBITDA annually. You’re paying 0.44x EBITDA for Australia’s second largest pathology network with 2,000+ collection centres and irreplaceable Medicare provider numbers. Comparable ACL trades at 5.6x EBITDA with identical sector headwinds.

The solvency scaremongering is wrong

The $800m “debt” bears cite is AASB 16 lease accounting — not financial debt banks can call. Actual net position: $11.6m net cash, $40m drawn on a $300m facility that doesn’t mature until 2028. Covenant breach requires drawing an additional $120m+ with no reason to do so. Not happening.

Why so cheap?

Management destroyed value 2021-2024 — the $301m Agilex overpay, repeated guidance misses, the ACCC blocking the ACL merger that would have delivered $2.05/share. Scar tissue is real. Medicare freeze and Fair Work wages hitting simultaneously killed near-term margins. Tax loss selling before June 30 is amplifying the move.

All real. All priced in and then some.

Catalyst: August results. Agilex sale confirmed. Market realises pathology came free. UBS just sold Healius’s Lumus division for 25.4x EBIT when sentiment was equally horrible. Same bank, same management, same playbook.

68m shares short at 12.4 days to cover. Any positive catalyst in a $265m market cap stock gets violent.

Bear case still gives you 51c. Base case $1.25. Not financial advice. Holding.

HWK:  

MC 16.86m 

SP 2.7c 

 

Hawks Resources hosts a Scandium anomaly based entirely on pXRF results collected in 2006 – 2009 

While DDing I managed to find the exact model of pXRF that was used in the Olympus exploration and it lends some clues as to the accuracy of the results 

 

The exact pXRF used was a Niton XLt 500. The XLt 500 is an old model with limited capabilities of detecting scandium at low concentration levels but is able to detect at ranges in the hundreds of ppm levels. It also suffers from overlapping signals from iron that may skew results and give inaccurate readings. However, this does not mean that the scandium does not exist. The model of pXRF used may be inaccurate in detecting Scandium BUT, when it detects in the high hundreds of ppm like we have at Olympus then the signal is almost certainly not a false positive 

At the levels detected at Olympus of 600ppm + it can be safely assumed that it is detecting a real scandium result. The results are more than likely being skewed in one direction or the other, but the key here is to establish whether the scandium signal is real or not 

The soil is certainly iron rich but the anomaly being contained to a particular area lends credibility to the readings detecting scandium and not a false positive from iron as iron would be picked up across the whole tenement 

The levels detected of up to 2000ppm in some of the drill holes is interesting as there are sections of high ppm and then low – zero ppm. Then there are holes right next to the high-grade ones that detect nothing. 

This also lends credibility that it is detecting a real Scandium result and not just iron and other elements being reported as such 

So how accurate could they be? 

A safe scenario to avoid disappointment would be to expect up to 50% reduction on lab assays vs the pXRF grades. This will account for poor XRF calibration, poor sample preparation, and exaggerated readings from other elements. I will link the drill result images so you can re calculate the expected grades 

Even at a 50% reduction Olympus is a multi-bagger opportunity  

Sc Rab drill results

Sc Rab drill results

Sc Rab drill results

Sc Rab drill results

Next, we have a new substantial holder 

SG Hiscock & Company multi-award-winning boutique fund manager became a substantial holder on 10/06/2026 

They bought 1 million dollars' worth of shares 31,950,00 shares for 5.12% of the company 

Why this is significant is that at this stage of the HWKs exploration a reputable institution has taken a large stake in the company weeks before the make or break Scandium conformation results will be collected 

This is a huge vote of confidence in the company's project from the smart money in the know and extremely bullish that they would take a stake before exploration has begun and not waiting until after the results are confirmed 

Highly Regarded

TLDR chart analysis tells you everything you need to know to see where we could be going soon. As you can see the big green arrow is pointing towards the moon and the rocket ship is launching in the direction of the arrow

Bullish setup

HWK moon

HWK