r/boxofficecirclejerk

Does The End of Oak Street have the potential to be a dog days breakout? There's been little chatter since the trailer dropped, but two big stars and a unique premise might be enough to bring people out. I always seem to miss the August hits in my predictions and it's opening around the same time slot that Weapons and Alien: Romulus occupied in previous years. Am I attaching too much weight to that comparison?

Right now I'm predicting a $38–43M opening, with enough of a multiplier to leg out past $110M if reactions are positive. That said, with J.J. Abrams attached, the final product could differ significantly from what's advertised and generate negative word of mouth. Am I way off base?

1. Avengers: Doomsday: $1.8B

(Could he close to Endgame-level turnout)

2. Spiderman: Brand New Day: $1.4B

(No Way Home hit 1B+ I see this making slightly more)

3. Moana Live Action: $1.2B

(I think this will outperform and be a big suprise)

4. Toy Story 5: $1.1B

(I think just over 1B is accurate for Toy Story 5)

5. Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $1B

(Already at about $945M after about 8 weeks, could see it just hitting $1B)

6. Michael: $950M

(Already at $703M at about 3 weeks of it's release. This could actually reach $1B)

7. The Odyssey $830M

(Don't think it will do as good as Oppenheimer but still will perform very well)

8. Dune: Part 3: $785M

(Could make more, trailer already has 40M views and the movie doesn’t even come out until December)

9. Minions 3: $730M

(I don't see it making more than $730M)

10. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping: $675M

(This could even make more. $1.5 million copies of the book were sold just on its opening week which is double the amount of copies The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes sold and triple the amount Mockingjay sold. This is also about Haymitch Abernathy's Hunger Games/Story and he is an extremely beloved character in the franchise)