‘I would lie if I say the first couple of months were easy, because they weren't,’ Hato acknowledged.

‘It was a difficult time but the second half of the season you saw the better side of me. I’ve showed my qualities, the ones I showed in Ajax.

‘I’ve improved a lot, with my confidence as well, and that’s why I’m playing now.’

Hato will hope to kick on next season and he will do so under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, who begins life as Chelsea manager on July 1.

Whatever formation the Spaniard opts for – he has often utilised a central defensive trio in the past – Hato is ready to help where he can.

‘I have played in a back three, in a back four and a back five. For me it doesn’t matter where I play, I just want to play.

‘He’s a great manager, he was a great player as well. He did very well at Liverpool, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. It’s good news for us that we have a manager at the start of the season. Of course our focus is on Sunday’s game but we are excited for next season.’

I was bored and did not know how to kill some time, so here we go lol

I am a little bit worried about the striker/forward depth. We currently have Liam Delap, Nicolas Jackson, Emmanuel Emegha, Marc Guiu and João Pedro.

I used FBref style match logs and Python/Jupyter Notebook to analyse the data. There are missing metrics, especially around injuries and availability. FBref has become horrible since the beginning of the year, so I had to take data from other sources such as FotMob and so on.

Maybe it is not a completely fair comparison, as Delap had injury interruptions:

Season	Injury	From	Until	Days	Games missed
25/26	Ill	13/01/2026	16/01/2026	4 days	1
25/26	Shoulder injury	06/12/2025	25/12/2025	20 days	4
25/26	Hamstring injury	31/08/2025	28/10/2025	59 days	10

But I was curious and compared our strikers for the next season anyway.

Metric	João Pedro	Liam Delap	Nicolas Jackson
Minutes	3969	1680	1323
Goals	23	2	11
Assists	6	3	3
G+A	29	5	14
Goals/90	0.522	0.107	0.748
Assists/90	0.136	0.161	0.204
G+A/90	0.658	0.268	0.952
Shots/90	2.358	2.839	3.810
SoT/90	0.930	0.911	2.177
Conversion %	22.1%	3.8%	19.6%
Minutes per G+A	136.9	336.0	94.5

The big point: Jackson produces actual end product.

Delap takes shots and has more total minutes, but the output is not close. But I think we all know this lol.

So the backup does not only need to be a big body. The squad needs someone who can do at least one of these two things:

A) replace João Pedro’s output when he rests
\B) offer a different tactical profile without killing the attack

And that is where Jackson beats Delap.

Why Delap’s case is difficult

The issue with Delap is end product. He offers rotation value and gets shots off, but the final output is not close enough to João Pedro or Jackson.

Area	Evidence	Interpretation
Goalscoring output	0.107 goals/90	Very low for a João Pedro backup.
Overall output	0.268 G+A/90	Too far below João Pedro’s 0.658 and Jackson’s 0.952.
Finishing	3.8% conversion	The biggest red flag in his profile.
Efficiency	840 minutes per goal	Extremely weak compared with Jackson’s 120.3 minutes per goal.
Bench impact	0.173 G+A/90 as substitute	Despite many sub appearances, the impact is limited.
Starter alternative	0.310 G+A/90 as starter	Not convincing enough as a João Pedro replacement in the XI.
Discipline	2.143 fouls/90, 0.482 cards/90	More combative, but also more likely to give away fouls/cards.

The caveats with Nicolas Jackson:

Area	Evidence	Interpretation
Smaller sample / not enough data	1323 minutes	Less secure sample than João Pedro and Delap.
Lower fouls won	0.891 fouls won/90	Does not replicate João Pedro’s ability to win fouls.
Higher offsides	0.980 offsides/90	More likely to mistime runs or play on the shoulder aggressively.
Discipline risk	0.624 cards/90	Highest cards rate in the comparison.
Availability/context	Bundesliga break / AFCON period	His monthly trend needs context and should not be read as a simple form drop.

Why João Pedro needs a reliable backup:

Area	Evidence	Interpretation
Heavy workload	3969 minutes	The squad needs rotation cover.
Starter dependency	45 starts	Too many starts increase the risk of fatigue or injuries.
Need for rest	67.3 minutes per appearance	A backup needs to protect his minutes.

That is a big gap compared with João Pedro and Jackson

Metric	Delap	Jackson
Goals/90	0.107	0.748
G+A/90	0.268	0.952
Conversion	3.8%	19.6%
Minutes per goal	840.0	120.3

To keep this simple, I used João Pedro as the benchmark. Keep in mind he played nearly 4000 minutes, which is around three times more than Jackson. The question is not who is the better player overall, but who profiles better as his backup for rotation, rest and attacking output.

Player	Goals/90	Assists/90	G+A/90
João Pedro	0.522	0.136	0.658
Liam Delap	0.107	0.161	0.268
Nicolas Jackson	0.748	0.204	0.952

https://preview.redd.it/73tzcxfgbd2h1.png?width=2836&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6bf1b4a005b86af099c731341463070527c8a58

Now we come to the shooting and threat data:

Player	Shots	SoT	Shots/90	SoT/90	Shot Accuracy %	Conversion %
João Pedro	104	41	2.358	0.930	39.4%	22.1%
Liam Delap	53	17	2.839	0.911	32.1%	3.8%
Nicolas Jackson	56	32	3.810	2.177	57.1%	19.6%

https://preview.redd.it/qn8c8uelbd2h1.png?width=2836&format=png&auto=webp&s=a591aef934020bb3922cdc769b37df3cdf340a54

Who is more dangerous from the bench?

We also lack on players, who are brining in an impact from the bench...

Player	Sub Minutes	Sub Goals	Sub G+A	Sub G+A/90
João Pedro	375	2	4	0.960
Liam Delap	519	1	1	0.173
Nicolas Jackson	236	4	4	1.525

https://preview.redd.it/g9b5uoembd2h1.png?width=2836&format=png&auto=webp&s=97a5ea8526d89402558059fd9a5cda803cca492c

The monthly trend is useful, but it needs context. Jackson’s line is more volatile because his minutes are not spread as evenly across the period. There is also an interruption around the Bundesliga winter break and AFCON/international availability period, so the empty or low months should not automatically be treated as poor form.

https://preview.redd.it/br8nhcxrbd2h1.png?width=2836&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff412560c9158798c8f78e9eb2084889e9295663

What matters more is what happens when he actually gets minutes: his productive months are much stronger than Delap’s. Delap has one clear spike, but otherwise his monthly G+A per 90 is mostly flat or close to zero. Jackson’s form line is less stable, but the upside is much higher.

Next, the efficiency chart:

Delap’s main issue is output cost. His minutes per goal and minutes per goal contribution are far higher than João Pedro and Jackson. Jackson is much closer to João Pedro’s efficiency profile.

https://preview.redd.it/bsoie0rnbd2h1.png?width=2836&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff03dcc97c69f26cca0952a9caca6f379ee858d

Small note: this chart mixes percentage metrics and time-based metrics. For shot accuracy and conversion, higher is better. For minutes per goal and minutes per goal contribution, lower is better.

Jackson gives you	Why it matters
More goal threat	Better chance of replacing João Pedro’s scoring output
More shots on target	More direct danger for the opposition goalkeeper
Better conversion	Much closer to João Pedro’s finishing level
Better starter output	More convincing if João Pedro needs rest from the XI
Better bench output	More useful as an impact option
Better recent form	Stronger current attacking trend
Closer attacking replacement	Better fit if the squad needs output cover

But will be Jackson ready to be a backup or rotation player? What about him as a left winger, as we also lack on the left side...

Overall, I would pick Nicolas Jackson as the better sporting backup to João Pedro.

Delap’s best argument is workload. He has more minutes, more appearances and a more physical rotation profile. But if the backup role is about protecting João Pedro’s output when he rests, Jackson is clearly stronger.

If you have any suggestions or see any errors, please let me know : )