r/nancyguthrie

Do we actually know exactly how and when the doorbell camera was disconnected? Was the camera physically removed, unplugged, disabled electronically, or did it simply lose its connection? And was it definitely disconnected before the suspect entered the house?

The sheriff said the doorbell camera was disconnected around 1:47 am—which is when the guy is seen on the nest footage. Then there’s a separate motion detection around 2:12 a.m., followed by Nancy’s pacemaker losing connection around 2:28 a.m.

My next question is what does that mean? Does it mean the phone was turned off, out of range, or that the device stopped transmitting for another reason? How far could she realistically be from her phone before the connection drops? A few feet, another room, or more depending on the setup?

And what actually triggers a “loss of connection” alert—Bluetooth, cellular relay, or a monitoring hub?
So does the 2:28 a.m. disconnection tell us anything specific about her location, or is it just a general signal loss that could happen for multiple reasons?

This case has been as baffling as The Springfield Three case thus far, but as someone who has followed true crime my whole life, here goes my two cents theory.

Aside from the fact that the FBI gave Annie and Tomasso lie detector tests and evidently ruled them out...I think this was a sexual/control motivated crime. Simple as that. Not robbery motivated, not extortion, the offender may or may not have even known of Ms Guthrie's famous daughter. I think this was a man who knew she lived alone and was 84. And that if he could gain entry he would have no real obstacles.

The offender:

Late 20s to mid-30s, male, Hispanic (based on the doorbell cam). Likely a US citizen, with connections to Mexico although purely familial nothing cartel related or anything. Probably a laborer or contactor of some kind. A freelance contractor/laborer in my opinion, not employed by an local businesses. Perhaps heard of Ms. Guthrie purely from word of mouth or by chance. He was familiar with the area, but did not know the Guthries at all personally.

Very intelligent, methodical, non-impulsive. He planned it out and was prepared to the extent he could be. Probably no serious prior criminal record. A mostly lone wolf, quiet, not rocking the boat type. But with pathological violent sexual fantasies. Probably felt inadequate in his life and dominating a helpless person and for his own gratification/power trip was his motive. Nancy Guthrie was just there and he happened to light on her.

I think he entered, hit her, subdued her and in that was achieving his fanasty and getting out some of his rage. I think he put her in something carried her to his vehicle somewhere close by and drove quite far away and disposed of her in a manner he had thought out before. He intended to kill this was not a crime with a goal other than letting off his own steam IMO. I think he had a place already chosen to dispose of her, that he had thought out. I have no idea where that would be. Certainly, he has had a bit of luck on his side too. But that's about all I can come up with for now.

I've heard a lot of speculation on the motives of the guilty party.
I don't know that Parker's Razor applies here just yet. I don't want to default to South Park Logic.

I'm half ass convinced by that first ransom note it's a bureaucrat from either Tucson, or Prima County, or a neighboring city, like Phoenix? Did he take her to California or Nevada?
12 hours seems like a hell of a drive.

The note reads like something an administrator would write, and sets the times in an administrative way.
I didn't think Bitcoin operated like normal banks, I didn't know the crypto currency people kept the tradition of a system wide pause on Saturdays and Sundays.

My interpretation of that first ransom note points toward an occupation.

Why wouldn't he accept the money on Saturday or Sunday?
If he was an administrator, or involved in banking or county clerk shit, he's going to model his worldview on that system.

He wanted to be paid in Bitcoin.

Active Bitcoin and emerging technology communities across Arizona host regular local meetups, social hours, and educational workshops in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas.

Major Bitcoin & Crypto Groups in Arizona, there seem to be groups that might have a good chunk of suspects.

With these networks alone, barring how many people involved remain anonymous, you have a Chinese Buffet of suspects.

Bitcoin runs 365/24/7, there's no reason for him to not accept money on Sunday.

"We will be holding her for a maximum of 7 days. You will need to send bitcoin in the amount of $4 million USD before 5PM on Thursday the 5th. If payment is not received, the ransom will be increased to 6 million USD which will need to be paid by 5PM on Monday the 9th. Once payment is received to the bitcoin address below she will be released within 12 hours of deposit to a safe drop off location back in Tucson. If payment is not received by the last deadline on Monday the 9th at 5PM, she will be killed."

5pm (when most city services and banks shut down.)
Here are the hours for the Tucson Municipal Court.

Friday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Saturday Closed
Sunday Closed
Monday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Tuesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Wednesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Thursday 8 AM–4:30 PM

The Second Ransom Note has a very haunting passage,
"She's buried in nature", it haunts me that phrase, it's almost religious sounding, or at the very least Pagan sounding.

“Guthrie Family,
We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt
her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was
heart related. She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed
the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly
sorry.”

If this is a legit note, the perpetrator obviously isn't in the 99th percentile of IQ.
But he can write things that sound vaguely like official statements.

There's another Bureaucrat type quality to this note, and honestly, it would have to be a dumb official to assume an 84 year old woman, was the picture of health.
It's almost like a cop putting a knee on a man's neck and expecting him to breathe anyway.

This looks like someone in a nearby County, City or State department, did this.
They probably have an average, or below average intelligence.
They could either be Christian or Pagan.
They follow traditional banking rules, and are likely novices to the Crypto Currency Community.
They might be computer literate enough to run Microsoft office, and do emails.
They don't strike me as someone who has been doing crypto for very long.

His department or personal schedule means he gets Friday-Sunday as his off days.
What departments in that region be they any government or banks have off days from Friday-Sunday?
Does he or did he work 4, 10 hour shifts?