$MRNA and $MRK say their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda slowed melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial.

The study was stopped at its first interim analysis after positive results, though detailed efficacy data have not yet been released.

If the benefit holds up, this would mark the first randomized Phase 3 validation of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and could significantly broaden the use of mRNA technology beyond traditional vaccines.

The time is now

Over 15 years, 89.93% of actively managed large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500. Missing just the 10 best trading days of a 20-year stretch cut annual returns from 11.6% to barely 1.6%.

That 10k you put into S&P 500 ETFs at 2021 start is up ~96% by 2025. Equal-weighted top 5 tech stocks had higher peak returns, but a 48% max drawdown. Most people can't stomach riding a portfolio down 50% then needing a 280% gain to break even, you know?

No need to pick sides. 70-80% broad ETF base keeps you from blowing up, 20-30% for your high-conviction stock picks only if you actually understand the business. Snagged this comparative chart off moomoo's layout earlier, it tracks way closer to what regular traders actually hold through the volatility than all the backtests you see online.

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At Friday's close, one month SPX implied vol sat at 11.3 while the index has realized 12.4 over the past month. Implied is what options cost in vol terms, realized is how much the index actually moved. The spread between them is negative by about a point, which is unusual for the index.

That spread is normally positive on SPX. Option sellers usually collect implied above realized, and that gap is the whole premium selling edge. Right now buyers of one month index options are paying slightly less than recent movement would justify.

This is not a case of realized spiking into sleepy options. Realized vol has been falling all summer, from 15.2 at the start of July to 12.4 on Friday. Implied has simply fallen faster.

IV rank on SPX is 6 out of 100 and the one year percentile is 10. In plain terms, implied vol has closed higher than this on about 90% of days in the past year. VIX finished Friday at 14.25.

The curve is telling a story too. The next two weeks of expirations carry single digit at the money vols, from 5.5 out to 8.9, while 60 day implied sits at 13.1. Next week's expected move works out to about 0.9%, roughly 70 SPX points. The market is pricing calm now and more movement into the fall.

None of this predicts a selloff. Cheap options can stay cheap, and realized can keep grinding lower underneath implied. It does mean index short premium currently starts from a negative spread instead of a positive one.

For those of you selling SPX or SPY premium here, are you sizing down, going further out, or treating this as business as usual?

Bill Ackman just made his biggest portfolio shake-up in years, adding Netflix (NFLX), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Alcon (ALC), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and S&P Global (SPGI). He’s betting these companies can deliver strong earnings growth over the long run.
He’s also still holding Microsoft (MSFT), Uber (UBER), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FMCC).
So far, though, Pershing Square USA has been lagging the market. By the end of July, the fund was down 3.5%, while the S&P 500 was up 13%.

SPY at $749.36 after a clean impulse leg from ~$738 into $753. 1H is bullish, structure intact, momentum aligned. Not chasing — waiting for the OTE pullback into fresh demand.

Pair: SPY · TF: 1H · Bias: LONG · Current: 749.36

Structure

• Bullish 1H trend, BOS confirmed above prior swing high
• Impulse base ~738 → swing high ~753.29
• Fresh 1H demand + OTE (0.618–0.786) sits at 748.50–750.20
• Intermediate structural low below 746.50 (SL reference)

The Setup

Level	Price
Entry Zone	748.50 – 750.20 (fresh 1H demand + OTE)
Stop Loss	746.50
TP1	755.30 (~1:2 RR)
TP2	758.00 (~1:3 RR)
TP3	762.00 (~1:4+ RR)

Confluence

• Bullish 1H structure + BOS ✅
• Fresh untested 1H demand in OTE sweet spot ✅
• Momentum aligned with pullback ✅
• Tight structural SL under 746.50 ✅
• BSL magnets stacked overhead (755 → 758 → 762) ✅

Trigger

1. Tap into 748.50–750.20
2. 5m/15m bullish ChoCH inside the zone
3. Wait for first LTF pullback after the ChoCH to hold
4. Enter on the LTF OB with bullish displacement off the box

No ChoCH = no trade.

Why not buy 749.36

Mid-zone. Without the LTF ChoCH you're guessing. SL still lives below 746.50 either way — pay for the confirmation, not the guess.

Invalidation

1H close below 746.50 with displacement = thesis dead. Walk away.

Anyone else stalking the 748–750 retest?

Not financial advice. Conflux AI read.

watched it drop from 11.85 to 8.35 in a few hours. Been debating whether to hold or cut, but honestly the volatility's making me second-guess. Got the chart pulled up on moomoo, just staring at it at this point lol. Anyone else holding SPXW right now or already out?