r/sp500

There is plutonomy inside the U.S. stock market itself
▲ 2 r/sp500+1 crossposts

There is plutonomy inside the U.S. stock market itself

I’ve been writing about plutonomy (the idea that a disproportionate share of economic outcomes is driven by a small powerful minority) and I realized there is a version of plutonomy inside the stock market itself.

A recent New York Times column by Jeff Sommer discussed research by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at Arizona State University, showing how concentrated U.S. public stock market wealth creation has been since 1926.

I downloaded the underlying dataset and graphed it. The result is striking: out of 29,081 U.S. public companies, only 276 (fewer than 1% of the sample) created roughly 80% of total net wealth. The top 10 alone account for about 29%, while 59% of firms reduced aggregate net wealth creation relative to Treasury bills.

That is plutonomy at the corporate level.

The stock market looks democratic: thousands of companies, public access, index funds, retirement accounts. But the actual wealth creation is highly oligarchic. A tiny corporate elite creates almost all the long-term wealth, while most listed companies contribute little or detract.

This also explains why indexing works. Indexing is not powerful because the average stock is great. It works because it guarantees exposure to the rare super-compounders before anyone knows who they will be.

The AI lesson is obvious: some current leaders may become century-defining wealth creators, but many companies riding the narrative will likely disappoint. The innovation can be real and still be a bad investment if investors overpay.

The U.S. stock market is a plutonomy of companies: thousands are listed, but only a tiny elite creates nearly all the wealth.

u/398409columbia — 1 day ago
▲ 2 r/sp500

Trend Continuation Probability Report: July 2026

The Takeaway of the report.

The 9-week stagnation is the ultimate tell of buyer exhaustion. The market gave buyers plenty of time to step up, but their total absence confirms that momentum has stalled, making a downward breakout highly probable. While more grinding sideways action is always possible, that runway is deteriorating by the day.

Look at the selloff on Friday, June 5th as a prime example of the downward velocity waiting to trigger. The S&P 500 fell a full 2.6% to close at 7,383.74. An aggressive drop like that historically occurs on less than 1% of all trading days which averages out to roughly 2 to 3 days a year over a 50-year historical lookback. It happened because the dealers are so short. If we get a structural breakdown past the current floor, the sheer velocity of the move will be massive because programmatic hedging will aggressively accelerate the slide. Therefore if it breaks the auction in a downward direction each individual day is likely to be volatile. This does not mean a large percentage move down in itself, although well possible. It means the markets will sell off quickly or in a steady drumbeat down.

Note on Academic Rigor & Sources: The Substack link is provided solely in accordance with standard academic practice of transparency, data verification, and the foundational research behind the conclusions stated above. This post contains all relevant findings; the link exists strictly for those who wish to review the underlying methodology and verify the data independently. It is entirely non-promotional.

open.substack.com
u/Maleficent_Yak_7997 — 1 day ago
▲ 0 r/sp500

Is it fine to not open the fidelity app?

Hi, I’m new to investing. I’m 21 and realized I have enough money saved to start investing some of my income. I just set up my Fidelity Roth IRA to automatically invest $40 every week into FXAIX (the Fidelity S&P 500 Index Fund). I chose automatic investing because I don’t wanna be tempted to dwell on the short term results which could happen if I manually did the deposits.

I have two questions:
Does this seem like a good long term investing choice for someone my age?

and second, as for the deposits being automatic, is it fine if I just never open the app until a few years go by? Or is it better to still monitor things

reddit.com
u/Comfortable-Log6511 — 2 days ago
▲ 12 r/sp500+1 crossposts

Us100,us30 ,sp500 dump Incoming

If it failed to hold demand than it will dip hard,don't long on it till the demand area

u/Capable-Bet4094 — 4 days ago
▲ 3 r/sp500+2 crossposts

Friends are convinced they can beat the S&P. Is it really that easy?

I have a few friends who over the last 6 months or so have gotten bigger into investing. They don’t invest in ETFs and build their portfolio out with individual stocks. I know that analysts do this and often can beat the market but I am hesitant to follow some of their investments. Quite honestly I think they are going to get burned.

One of them is literally putting the company that owns GTA 6 into his Roth. He bought like 5 shares.. the day after preorders were available.

I do not work in finance so I am not as skilled in analyzing markets so maybe I’m just playing it too safe but I feel like this isn’t going to end well.. right?

reddit.com
u/Emergency_Cicada3119 — 6 days ago
▲ 19 r/sp500+4 crossposts

SPY Weak Bearish Bias After Rally

The engine indicates a slightly bearish bias (-0.33) with low confidence, suggesting only a weak downside statistical edge. Price recently surged into resistance before pulling back, increasing the likelihood of short-term consolidation or a modest retracement. The projected bear target remains within the next 4–5 bars, but confirmation is recommended before acting.  https://discord.gg/8A76w6tbx

u/Accomplished_Olive99 — 4 days ago
▲ 16 r/sp500

META IS BUILDING A CLOUD BUSINESS TO SELL EXCESS AI CAPACITY!

$META is reportedly developing a cloud business to sell access to excess AI compute, per Bloomberg.

The internal initiative is called Meta Compute.

The plans being considered:

AI model access hosted on Meta infrastructure, similar to AWS Bedrock

Raw AI compute capacity, closer to CoreWeave

Developer access to Meta’s data centers, chips, and models

Napkin math for potential revenue here for META:

1GW of compute capacity
$20B revenue per GW
$20B total revenue
85% operating income margin
$17B operating income
$14.6B net income
$5.69 EPS
16.3% accretion to FY27 consensus EPS

u/Optimal_Image5192 — 5 days ago
▲ 30 r/sp500+4 crossposts

SPY Faces Resistance as Bearish Bias Builds

SPY remains in a weakening intraday trend after failing near resistance. Bearish bias is active with low confidence, signaling choppy conditions rather than a strong directional move. Short-term support is being tested, and traders should wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection before entering.  https://discord.gg/8A76w6tbx Join the Discord.

u/Accomplished_Olive99 — 5 days ago
▲ 199 r/sp500+2 crossposts

Big crash on S&P on Monday

The COT of the week shows that there are many shorts on the futures on es, also US launched massive strike on Iran and if it wasn’t enough an insider of trump with 100% win rate just opened a short on es before market open with a value of 70,000,000.00. I was finishing writing this post and a new comes out saying that FED WILL INJECT
$6,637,000,000.00 INTO THE ECONOMY RIGHT BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS To prevent a brutal market crash next week. Something big is coming next week so me personally I’m not trading on Monday

u/RightSnow6953 — 7 days ago
▲ 65 r/sp500

Trump v Slaughter means S&P ratings can no longer be trusted

Today, SCOTUS ruled that the White House can exert direct control over administrative agencies; heads and acting heads are now at will employees.

Why does this matter for S&P ratings?

S&P, Fitch, and Moody's are nationally registered statistical rating organizations - NRSRO's. That's what gives their ratings "official" status. Without that - it's all talk. We trust these entities because we have been able to assume, until today, that their practices have been carefully evaluated by an impartial, apolitical arbiter - the SEC, which for all intents and purposes, is now synonymous with "Trump."

But there's more. In addition to the SEC, Trump now controls the Library of Congress, directly. A huge part of S&P's value is its intellectual property - and Trump can now weaponize copyrights.

Finally, there's non-profit status. S&P is a 501(c)(3). They are now at the mercy of Trump if they want that status to continue.

Can states do anything about it? Like giving S&P their "imprimatur" if the feds don't? Nope. State and local government websites are at the mercy of CISA - aka Trump - if they wish to continue using ".gov" in their websites.

We are royally screwed. As of today, there's no longer an objective, publicly accessible way of assessing whether a company is worth investing in.

And this will persist even after our current POTUS is gone. S&P ratings will be permanently politicized, going forward. If a left-wing President thinks a company isn't "green" enough or has ties to Israel - it can say bye-bye to its S&P ratings. Ratings will no longer indicate objective reality, but the whims of whatever President is in office.

reddit.com
u/tkpwaeub — 6 days ago
▲ 13 r/sp500+9 crossposts

When will the next bear market be. They say the market is green 3 out of every 4 years. When will the correction be 2027?

Last negative year was 2022 ….. we have been positive since. Thoughts ???

reddit.com
u/Certain_Public_866 — 5 days ago
▲ 35 r/sp500+5 crossposts

SPY Rebounds After Volatility Flush, Testing Key Resistance

SPY showed a sharp volatility flush followed by a strong recovery, indicating buyers quickly absorbed selling pressure. Price is now trading near resistance around 737.5–739, while support remains near 737.4. Bias is essentially neutral, so a breakout above resistance could extend higher, while failure may lead to a retest of support. Volume has normalized after the spike, suggesting the next move will likely depend on whether buyers can maintain momentum above current levels. Join the Discord https://discord.gg/rNCu7JZRP

u/Accomplished_Olive99 — 7 days ago
▲ 20 r/sp500+1 crossposts

Dealers got squeezed Monday. Doha talks may not even be real. Here's the setup for tomorrow.

Quick rundown for anyone trading ES/SPY tomorrow (6/30).

Monday's rally (SPX +1.18%, Nasdaq +2%) looked bullish on the surface but the texture was off. Price popped, oozed sideways, sold off a bit, popped again — classic short covering, not clean accumulation. PMO on the daily SPY chart is still rolling over even after the move. Price up, momentum still decaying. That's a forced cover, not a trend change.

The catalyst was the US/Iran stand-down over the weekend. But here's the thing nobody's pricing in: Trump says Iran requested a Doha meeting for tomorrow. Iran's Foreign Ministry says there's no meeting scheduled and it has "no relation" to the US. WSJ reported talks were already stalled as of Sunday. So tomorrow's headline risk could break either direction and the market hasn't really priced that uncertainty.

Add quarter-end window dressing on top of that (today's the last trading day of Q2, expect outsized moves from rebalancing) and you've got a setup for a choppy, two-sided session rather than a clean trend.

Key levels I'm watching on ES: balance high ~7,460, balance low ~7,400. If we lose 7,400 with conviction, there's an air pocket down toward 7,356.

open.substack.com
u/Maleficent_Yak_7997 — 6 days ago
▲ 471 r/sp500

Personal Milestone with S&P500 investing

Finally hit 1000 shares of S&P500 ETF this morning (VOO). No one to share this with other than internet strangers. Will continue to DCA weekly into S&P500 until retirement 👍

u/prs2015 — 9 days ago
▲ 2 r/sp500

5 Indicators of an Overvalued US Stock Market:

  1. Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE or Shiller PE or P/E 10 Ratio) based on average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years headed to dot-com bubble peak:

Source: longtermtrends.com

  1. S&P 500 forward P/E Ratio assumes near 0% subsequent 10-year annualized returns:

Source: am.jpmorgan.com

  1. Nasdaq to S&P00 Ratio is above dot-com bubble peak:

Source: longtermtrends.com

  1. Inflation adjusted S&P 500 is far above exponential long-term trend:

Source: currentmarketvaluation.com

  1. Stocks entered overpriced zone against bonds:

Source: currentmarketvaluation.com

Bottom line:

  • Overvalued stocks and deviations from trend line can last for extended periods. 
  • It’s neither a signal for selling stocks, nor buying for a long-term.
  • Better way is to sell stocks and rebalance in favor of bond ETFs deploying Dollar-cost averaging approach by selling a fixed dollar amount or a fixed percentage of stock holdings at regular intervals, regardless of the share price.
reddit.com
u/goldman_capital — 6 days ago
▲ 82 r/sp500+1 crossposts

8,000 baby! By year's end – and that'd mean an S&P 500 with a 17% increase over 2025.

Analysts have projected the S&P 500 will end the year at 8,000.

17% gains for this year? I'll take it! After the last three years of some nice, healthy gains of 17, 23 and 24 percent respectively... another strong year of 17% gains would be sweet!

Is this prediction of 8,000 believable? You bet it is. Just look at earnings... they absolutely crushed it last quarter; and the S&P 500 has had positive, double-digit earnings growth for the last seven consecutive quarters. And CapEx/earnings are predicted to remain strong right through 2027.

Earnings drive bull markets. Plain and simple. That's the bottom line.

So for this 66-year-old, two-year retiree, who has had, and will continue to have, 100% of his equities in an S&P 500 index fund – all this is music to my ears. Like that Bob Marley song... "We're jammin'!!"

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260625108/wall-street-is-coalescing-on-a-single-sp-500-target-the-power-of-round-numbers-is-irresistible

reddit.com
u/RU9901 — 11 days ago
▲ 1 r/sp500

Coast Fire question

If I sound dumb don’t mind me I’m still kind of new to this. I’ve been reading a lot now about people who hit ‘coast fire’ and no longer need to invest because they are saying they did all the heavy pulling and will now just let it compound into the millions. What happens if the market crashes 50-80% like these doom and gloomers say? Does coast fire give them enough cushion to where they’re still coasting? I don’t get it

reddit.com
u/StatisticianFlat4439 — 8 days ago
▲ 408 r/sp500

BofA Expecting 3 Rate Hikes in 2026…

BofA now expects the Fed to hike rates 3 times this year, shifting from its prior view of no changes.

BofA sees 25 bps hikes in September, October and December, taking rates to 4.25%-4.5% by year-end.

And expects the Fed’s first rate cuts to come in 2028.

u/Optimal_Image5192 — 14 days ago