r/spy

Last week was pretty crazy. What’s your thoughts and outlook for next week like?

Who else bought calls after 7:30 PST/10:30 EsT thinking it would run back up again and got absolutely skull-fucked? 🙋‍♀️

Spending 5k on 742 call over the weekend 🫡

I’ve been doing 0DTE calls on SPY and it’s been pumping in the mornings. Since it’s the last day of the week tomorrrow we expecting some sell off?

I’ve been watching SPY a little differently lately. Not really trying to call tops or bottoms, but the intraday structure has been more useful to me than just asking whether the market is “bullish” or “bearish.”

A lot of dips look buyable at first. SPY flushes into a prior low, RSI gets stretched, everyone starts watching for the bounce, and sometimes it does bounce hard. But the part I care about more is what happens after that first reaction.

If SPY sweeps liquidity, reclaims VWAP, and starts holding above the breakdown area, I’m more open to the idea that it was just a shakeout. But if it bounces into VWAP and stalls there, that feels different. That starts looking less like dip-buying and more like sellers using the bounce to unload.

Could be wrong, because SPY can reverse hard when everyone gets too bearish, especially with 0DTE positioning and dealer flows pushing things around. But I don’t really trust the first green candle anymore unless price actually accepts back above the level it lost.

For me the risk is pretty simple: if SPY reclaims VWAP and holds above the prior breakdown area, the bearish read is probably wrong. If it keeps rejecting there, I’d rather stay patient than force a long just because the dip “looks cheap.”

A few of us have been comparing notes on SPY liquidity sweeps, VWAP reclaims, and failed breakdowns lately. Curious how others trade this: do you buy the flush, wait for VWAP reclaim, or mostly ignore intraday structure and focus on higher timeframe trend?

And then TSLA q2 in about 1 hour too…
Whoever got calls yesterday will bank today

After today’s massive rally with tech, are we thinking it’ll drop a bit from sell offs and then shoot back up from people trying to get cheaper entries, or will it move like this morning and just go up from the get-go?

Buying dips sounds simple until the dip stops behaving like a dip.

A normal pullback usually still respects some kind of structure. Prior demand holds, VWAP gets reclaimed, buyers show up before price has to run every obvious stop. It might be messy, but you can still see participation.

The dangerous version is when price keeps needing lower lows to find buyers. It sweeps one level, bounces weakly, rejects, then sweeps the next one. At that point, I’m not sure it’s really a dip-buy setup anymore. It might just be the market repricing lower in steps.

That’s where I think traders disagree. Some see every flush as opportunity. Others see repeated failed reclaims as a warning that demand is getting thinner.

I don’t have a perfect answer. I tend to wait for acceptance back above the breakdown area, but that definitely means missing some V-shaped reversals.

For me, the invalidation is pretty simple: if the reclaim holds, my bearish read is probably wrong.

A few of us have been reviewing these dip/reclaim patterns lately. Curious how others define the moment a dip turns into something more serious.

not financial advice, just a personal experiment

i picked 10 stocks i trade regularly and committed to drawing fresh support and resistance levels every morning before market open for an entire month. then i tracked whether price interacted with those levels during the session and whether the interaction was meaningful (held, broke through cleanly, got rejected)

some things i expected and confirmed: levels at round numbers (50,50,100, $150 etc) had noticeably more meaningful interactions than arbitrary levels. prior highs and lows from the previous week mattered more than levels from three or four weeks ago. the more times a level had been tested and held, the more likely it was to be meaningful when price came back to it

some things that surprised me: intraday levels i drew in real time were about as predictive as the levels i drew the night before from the daily chart. i expected the daily chart levels to dominate. they didn't

the thing that changed my process the most: i found i was drawing way too many lines. on any given chart i had 6, 8, sometimes 10 levels marked. when i forced myself to pick only the 3 most important levels per chart, i had to actually think about which ones mattered most. and the 3-level charts produced better trades than the 10-level charts because i wasn't second-guessing myself constantly looking for the next line price was approaching

less is more turned out to be the practical lesson. not "there are no valid levels" but "the fewer levels you mark the more you trust the ones you have"

how many levels do you typically have on a chart at one time? curious if people have a method for deciding which to keep and which to remove