r/stockmarketcrash

Every morning when I look at my investments and stocks they just keep getting clobbered. I know it’s a normal thing for stocks to go down, but this seems like it’s never going to get better (I know it will but it’s still unnerving). It seems every time Trump opens his mouth, the investments drop. Is anyone else noticing this and are you concerned about it? Other than not looking at my portfolio every morning, I’m not sure what to do….just wait it out I guess??

I'm pretty convinced that the US is due a large correction soon of 30% and possibly more. I'm assuming that politically that Trumps impending exit will be the catalyst- but this is all hypothetical and purely my thesis which I'm committed to and happy for time to prove me wrong. My pension is mainly invested in an all-world index which like most is around 65-70% US companies. I have started to build a roughly 25% buffer into a cash liquidity fund to buy on any pull back. I know historically that time in the market beats timing the market and I still plan to be invested in the market during this time albeit with a cash buffer some of have cash to deploy during a correction (I know timing this comes with a whole set of variables that I'm comfortable with). I wondered if any other had like minded views and if they are making similar plans. I should add that my horizon is 12 years although I'd really love to bring that forward as much as possible
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It’s just out of curiosity, but this curiosity has been answered partly from the actions taken by NVIDIA.
I mean, if all information is basically relying on how a successful person has spoken.

He has the power to shift the market attention, from AI boom to how he’s making money responsibly, and those Ponzi scheme had the same clue, when one can speak for all.

The yen rebounded sharply after joint intervention by the U.S. and Japanese authorities. But USD/JPY is now back near 160, suggesting the market is once again testing the limits of intervention.

This highlights the problem with FX intervention: it can slow the move, but it doesn’t change the underlying trend.
For the yen to strengthen sustainably, the key remains the U.S.-Japan rate differential:

1. BOJ hikes
2. Fed cuts
3. BOJ hikes + Fed cuts

The issue is that U.S. inflation is still proving sticky, so a major Fed cut in September looks unlikely.

That leaves what may be the most realistic yen-positive scenario for now:
Fed stays on hold + BOJ hikes 25 bps.

So for the Fed’s September decision — hike, cut, or pause — the most realistic path still points to a pause

Is my imagination playing tricks on me or is it only me who seeing this. The days now look like they didn’t happen. All last week (except slightly one day) and today for sure as if the market didn’t open. They killed not only the semis but the whole market is either not moving or 0.0000 ish. Not sure what type of news or catalyst can revert this situation any more. All what I am hearing tons of companies are making billions and millions, beat and double beat but don’t see anything moving.

Are we, the general population, as traders really looking at the market valuations and the basic metrics? Or are we just "following the herd" and blindly investing?

My old school take is to look at PE price earnings to be near 15 times.

It concerns me that broad market PE are North of 26 times and the CAPE is above 36 times.

Looking up the dot com bubble peaked at all time high of 43+.

This market is STUPID EXPENSIVE. I realize that you cannot let geopolitcal tensions (or ineptness) jade you. Nor do you let war or elections swade you. But logic says go the way of TIPS.

Bonds and gold are supposed to be safe havens. Yet with the new fed chair will he really wade through the data, find inflation is really high AND do an interest rate hike? If so, then the inverse relation to interest prime and bond prices has bonds looking unattractive.

Things that make you go, hmmm...

S&P PE Ratio

It’s seems that the big 3 and NVIDIA have been speaking for a while. What do you think about Trumps public messages will be an influence if so?