r/tradingDeck1

$MRNA ripping ~150% in a day obviously looks insane, but I think the more interesting part is what the market is actually pricing in now.

This isn’t just traders saying one Moderna drug is worth more. The move looks more like the market suddenly assigning a much higher probability that Moderna’s mRNA technology can become a real oncology platform, rather than being remembered mainly as a Covid-era vaccine story.

That distinction matters.
A successful cancer program is valuable on its own. But if investors start believing the same underlying platform can be used across multiple tumour types, combinations and personalised treatments, you’re no longer valuing one drug. You’re valuing years of possible follow-on programs.

And that’s where these biotech moves get dangerous in both directions.
Before today, a lot of that future value was heavily discounted because clinical failure was still a huge possibility. One major positive result can suddenly move those probabilities, and because biotech valuations are basically probability-weighted future cash flows, the stock can move far more than you’d expect from near-term revenue alone.

Still, +150% in one session means a lot of future success just got pulled into today’s price. That would make me much more interested in the next data release than the candle itself.

I’d want to see:
actual size of the clinical benefit, whether results hold across patient subgroups, safety, manufacturing economics, how quickly personalised doses can be produced, pricing, and most importantly whether similar results start appearing in other cancers.

If those pieces line up, this could be bigger than melanoma and Moderna probably deserves a completely different valuation framework.

If they don’t, then today’s move may have simply priced five years of optimism into five hours. Also kind of wild looking at the S&P leaderboard now.
$SNDK +547% YTD
$MRNA +413%
$DELL +245%
$MU +217%
$STX +202%
$MRVL +171%

Most of the list screams AI infrastructure and memory.
Then Moderna just shows up in the middle of it.

Two completely different stories, but basically the same market behaviour: investors paying aggressively when they think a company’s long-term earnings ceiling has suddenly moved higher.

I wouldn’t chase $MRNA after a candle like this, but I definitely wouldn’t dismiss it as a meme move either.
The real question now is whether this was one great clinical result or the first proof that Moderna has a much larger oncology platform than the market thought yesterday.

What do you guys think? Genuine long-term rerating, or did the market get way too excited in one session?

I was reading JPMorgan's new $SNDK thesis and honestly the numbers look kind of crazy. They resumed coverage with Overweight + $2,250 price target.

But what caught my attention is not even the target.

Sandisk apparently has around $94B of long-term agreements, with 4+ year average duration and JPM says these contracts could support around 80% gross margins even at floor pricing.

Then there is AI.

JPM estimates NAND market could go from roughly $70B in 2025 → $300B+ in 2026 → ~$500B in 2027, mostly because data centers need much more flash storage for AI inference.

They also estimate $250 EPS in CY27 and think EPS could compound 25%+ longer term.

Basically their argument is that Sandisk is not just another cyclical memory stock anymore. AI inference + long-term contracts could make earnings much more predictable than previous NAND cycles.

This is where I'm little skeptical though.

Memory has always looked amazing near the top of a cycle. If everyone suddenly believes NAND is structurally different this time, maybe thats exactly when you should be careful.

On other hand, if AI inference really creates persistent storage demand at this scale, $SNDK could be one of those second-order AI trades people ignored while everyone was watching $NVDA.

see what people here think.

Is $SNDK actually becoming an AI infrastructure play, or are we putting an AI multiple on another memory cycle?

Not talking about the stock price. I mean the whole ecosystem around $NVDA.

Nvidia is not just selling GPUs anymore. They are getting involved everywhere, AI startups, data centres, partnerships, financing, cloud companies etc.

Basically:
More money goes into AI → more data centres get built → more Nvidia GPUs get bought → Nvidia gets even stronger → even more money comes into the ecosystem.

Obviously this is an incredible business if AI spending keeps growing.

But I keep wondering…
How much of this demand is actually organic?

At some point suppliers, customers, investors and financiers all start depending on the same AI capex cycle continuing.

I am still bullish on Nvidia long term, but I think this is one risk people don’t talk about enough.

Maybe Nvidia is simply benefiting from the AI boom.
Or maybe Nvidia is now powerful enough that it is also helping keep the boom alive.

what others think.

Reddit closed at $164.50 yesterday, down 7.6%, just before officially entering the S&P 500. There’s an obvious short-term story here: index funds now have to own the stock, and JPMorgan estimated that S&P 500 trackers could need roughly 16.7 million RDDT shares, nearly three times the stock’s average daily trading volume since IPO. But that is mechanical demand. It doesn’t tell us whether Reddit is actually worth owning.

The fundamentals are much more interesting. In Q2, Reddit generated $805 million in revenue, up 61% year over year. Advertising revenue reached $762 million, up 64%, while daily active uniques grew 18% to 130.3 million and weekly active uniques rose 24% to 514.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $343 million, giving Reddit a 42.6% margin, while free cash flow came in at $261 million. This was also its eighth consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 60%. That combination matters because Reddit is no longer just a fast-growing social platform. It is starting to show significant operating leverage.

The bull case is that Reddit may still be substantially under-monetized relative to the amount of attention and purchase intent sitting inside the platform. Someone searching Reddit for the best credit card, thoughts on Nvidia earnings or a new gaming laptop is revealing commercially valuable intent. Google has monetized that kind of intent for decades, while Reddit historically has not done it particularly well. If Reddit keeps improving ad targeting, search, shopping discovery and international monetization, revenue could continue growing much faster than its user base. We may already be seeing that, with users growing 18% last quarter while revenue grew 61%.

Then there is the AI angle. Reddit owns something that could become increasingly scarce as the internet fills with AI-generated content: huge amounts of continuously updated human conversation, opinion and experience. That data could become increasingly valuable to search engines, AI companies, advertisers and users themselves. In other words, AI may actually increase the value of Reddit’s underlying content.

But this is also where the risk becomes interesting. Despite all the attention around Reddit’s AI and data-licensing opportunity, $762 million of its $805 million in quarterly revenue still came from advertising. Reddit is overwhelmingly an advertising business today, not an AI-data business. It also remains dependent on outside discovery, particularly search engines, and management has already acknowledged volatility in search-driven traffic.

That creates a genuine contradiction in the investment thesis. AI could make Reddit’s human-generated data more valuable while AI-powered search products simultaneously reduce the number of people who actually click through to Reddit. Both outcomes can happen at the same time.

That is why I wouldn’t use S&P 500 inclusion as the real investment thesis. What matters over the next few quarters is whether monetization continues to outpace user growth, whether Reddit can increase direct traffic instead of relying heavily on Google, whether international monetization keeps accelerating, and whether non-advertising businesses such as AI licensing and commerce become meaningful contributors.

For me question for $RDDT isn’t whether index funds will buy the stock. They will. The real question is whether Reddit can turn one of the internet’s largest collections of human knowledge and commercial intent into a much larger business without AI simultaneously weakening the traffic ecosystem that feeds it.

If Reddit solves that, S&P 500 inclusion may eventually look like a footnote. If it doesn’t, the current growth numbers could prove much harder to sustain than they appear.

Bull or bear on $RDDT around $165? I’d especially like to hear the bear case from anyone who thinks AI search materially damages Reddit’s long-term traffic.

Do you guys go with the candle,wicks, indicators or fundamentals?

Share your trading style to help someone who is looking for some idea to get out of the confusion,they have regarding their strategy.

I screenshot stocks/ETFs when I see them hyped on social media or news etc. along with my thinking at the time. Thinking as in “ oh boy the stock is expensive, let me wait a few days” or “darn! I don’t have the money to buy this now, but let me save for later” etc. weeks later I can’t reconstruct what I was thinking it if I should regret buying - just a pile of screenshots and bad memory.

Thinking about building something that logs ticker + price + reasoning over time as a simple timeline , so you can actually see the pattern.

Is this a problem for anyone else? Or just how I use watchlists provided by these trading platforms? Would you use something like this, or is logging your thoughts each time too much friction?

Been learning options/trading and spent basically the whole day today trying to understand what im actually supposed to be looking for instead of just buying calls because i think a stock is gonna go up lol

One of the biggest things im starting to understand is the importance of having an actual catalyst/reason for why a stock could move. Earnings, guidance, company news, analyst changes, industry news etc. Not just finding a chart that looks good and hoping.

From there ive been looking at the chart, support/resistance, trend and whether the market is actually reacting to the catalyst the way i expected.

Then instead of just entering, ive been separating stocks into ones im waiting on and ones that are “confirming.” Confirming basically means most of what im looking for is there but i still need the price action to prove the move before i put money into it.

If it finally confirms i still dont immediately buy. I check the actual option chain like expiration, strike, premium, spread, volume, open interest, delta, IV etc and figure out exactly what contract makes sense, where i would enter, how much im risking and where the trade is invalidated.

Probably the biggest thing i learned today is that finding a good stock/setup and finding a good ENTRY are two different things. A stock can have a great catalyst and setup but if i chase it or enter before confirmation i can still make it a bad trade.

And even if everything looks good beforehand, if it doesnt confirm then i just dont trade it.

Something else im trying to figure out is how much weight to give the overall market/sector compared to the individual stock, what actually counts as enough confirmation vs entering too late, and how experienced traders decide if the risk/reward is still worth taking after confirmation. Im also trying to learn when a setup that looked good beforehand should just be completely thrown out instead of trying to make it work.

I have a couple setups im watching for monday that are close to confirming and im honestly excited just to see how this process plays out live, whether i actually get a trade or not.

Obviously im still a beginner and im sure theres a lot im missing. For people who have been doing this successfully for a while, am i at least building the right foundation?

Especially curious how you guys handle confirmation, risk/reward, position sizing, stops, overall market conditions and knowing when NOT to trade. Those are probably the areas where i have the most to learn right now.