r/u_Jada_Bite

200 days since my last trade on this account; Dhan showed me that notification today like it was proud of itself.

This is one of my newest portfolios. ₹1.35 lakh deployed, basically a small test book I built some signal-driven entries on through a system called AION, then walked away from.

Here's where it sits right now:

Investment: ₹1,35,377

Current Value: ₹1,73,841

P&L: +₹38,464 (+28.41%)

I'm booking everything this week, I'd rather be wrong and in cash than right and holding through a 40% drawdown, but i am very certain this time

Here's what I'm looking at...

Buffett is sitting on $397 billion in cash. A new all-time record.

He's been a net seller for 13 consecutive quarters. That's 3 full years of selling. He offloaded 75% of Apple, 77% of Amazon, 50%+ of Bank of America.

These were his highest conviction holdings. He didn't trim them, he gutted them

That cash isn't sitting in a savings account. It's parked in US Treasury bills earning ~5% annually. He's choosing guaranteed 5% over the entire US stock market.

Think about what that means.

And here's the scale of it: $397 billion is roughly ₹33 lakh crore. If he deployed just 10% of that in India, he could buy Indian Companies like Infosys, Maruti, Sun Pharma, Mahindra, Axis Bank, and NTPC. ENTIRELY

That's how much dry powder the world's greatest investor is sitting on instead of buying stocks.

He's not scared of a crash; He's waiting for one. He's said publicly he's seen 60 years of markets and only 5 of them were genuinely worth deploying into, He wants a 50% correction.

The $397 billion is a loaded gun pointed at the post-crash market.

The valuation numbers back this up completely.

The Shiller CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted PE) is sitting at 40 right now. The last time it was this high was 1999, right before the dot-com crash.

The crash came when it hit 43. In 2008, it was only at 26 before the collapse.

The Buffett Indicator (total market cap divided by GDP) is at 230%. Buffett himself has said above 200% means you're playing with fire. It's at 230.

The AI boom is being compared to the dot-com bubble for a reason. Nvidia up 1400% in 5 years, Memory stocks up 3600-4100% post-listing, OpenAI is still not profitable and continues burning billions annually.

The infrastructure companies are getting paid from funding rounds, not real revenue.

And it's not just Buffett.

1. Moody's AI recession model is at 49% probability. Historically, once it crosses 50%, a recession has followed within a year. J.P. Morgan is putting a 35% chance on a US recession in 2026.
2. Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator just hit its highest reading since 2021, landing in the 99th percentile of all observations since 1991. Extreme greed.
3. The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average. VIX is elevated. 76% of investors in a recent survey said they're worried about a correction this year.
4. Hedge funds are sitting on their biggest short bet against US stocks in years.
5. Nifty is already down over 1% today as I'm writing this.

  

When the world's most patient investor is hoarding cash, when every major valuation metric is at historic extremes, when institutional money is quietly moving to the exits, I don't need to be a genius to read the room.

28% on a small neglected book is fine. Giving it back in a drawdown I watched coming would not be fine

i'm done for today, going on a bike trip with my broke friends is all that's left for today

i spent months building a local execution agent for algo trading in India, got it exactly where i wanted it

then SEBI dropped the static IP mandate on April 1st, 2026 every API order now needs a registered static IP or the broker rejects it. everything i built had to be rethought.

there were so many points where i wanted to quit, genuinely. i felt tired, miserable, ran a fever mid-build,

i took breaks but i never gave up and it fucking works now.

and i'm not exaggerating when i say this was hard, this is not just an execution layer...

what's under the hood goes way deeper than anything i can put in a post

if i had to explain the full thing, 50 posts wouldn't cover 70% of it.

and i'm not disclosing how it works.

but that orderbook is from last night MCX, my system placing orders, filling clean, zero manual intervention...

Indians are ignorant and lazy, they won't sit with a problem for three months. they'll just pay 90% of them just stopped there are the executions and choose to do it manually just to save ₹500 per month or some of them would find a easy way out

i'd rather spend that ₹500 on my girlfriend...

now i know people would say that this is not a big deal, going through such miserable 3 months+ for saving ₹500 per month doesn't make sense but my answer to them as this is not even 2% of what i've actually built

i'm a narcissist... but the kind that actually helps

if you're exploring algo execution in India, tired of manual placements, or just want to understand what's possible right now, my DMs are open

i bought NIFTY 24500 CE this morning, same day expiry and the Theta Decay started to kill the premium from the open.

for hours I was in green, then red; green, then red it was not because the trade was not in my direction, but simply because of Theta Decay

every instinct said to cut it now, take the smaller loss and save a few points by exiting earlier then Stoploss.

I didn't.

My setup said hold, My thesis had never been invalidated throughout the trade only the premium had decayed.

So I sat with it, uncomfortably Watching Red. Talking myself out of every early-exit impulse by walking back through

what my system actually said.

Nifty moved. 24500 CE, flipped from OTM pain to ITM profit and i closed the day +₹2,600.

the money isn't the point here, the point is i had a dozen chances to override my system with "common sense" risk management.

If I had, I'd have locked in a loss on a trade that was always going to work. My stop loss exists for a reason.

Cutting early to feel better isn't risk management. It's emotion wearing risk management's costume.

Always stick to the system, Boring advice...